EURO vs USD

[lionness]

Originally Posted by Raficoo

Euro's been messing around between 1.39 and 1.407 these couple of weeks but now its $1.41462

:

True, i do think Euro/USD are stuck in this range. Which only means good news to the dollar on the long run.

Many belive we already reached rock bottom of the crisis, i dont know about that, but for sure the economic data coming out from Eurozone is much worest than the data from the US.

Personally iam staying away from euro/dollar for the short run, there are more potential in earning profit with JPY crosses. and other commodity related currencies. After all its summer, Fuel and Gold and construction material will have an effect.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by lionness

True, i do think Euro/USD are stuck in this range. Which only means good news to the dollar on the long run.

Many belive we already reached rock bottom of the crisis, i dont know about that, but for sure the economic data coming out from Eurozone is much worest than the data from the US.

Personally iam staying away from euro/dollar for the short run, there are more potential in earning profit with JPY crosses. and other commodity related currencies. After all its summer, Fuel and Gold and construction material will have an effect.

It’s not about the bad economic news as much as who’s printing more paper money for stimulus without backing it up.

[lionness]

well one cant deny the economic problem is structural. But in FX trade as well as in stock half of the game is public Sentiment , that is largely the result of the news they read. many believe the meltdown wouldnt have been so harsh if it wasnt for the panic effect.

About the money printing startegy i 100% agree its a very harmful strategy. The massive printing of the dollars the US gov did will b harmful , at least in the long run.

I am in favor of the gov spending to stimulus economy, investing , not printing papers in the air.

[J. Abizeid]

It looks like China is in the process of dumping their dollars quietly. It seems like a steady trend reversing the illusion that the dollar is not sick.
Dollar Collapsing Gold Soaring Are The Gold Bugs Finally Right: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

CUR_EURUSD Currency Quote - European Euro Vs Us Dollar Currency Quote - CUR_EURUSD Quote - CUR_EURUSD Currency Price

It would be interesting to see the trend charts from Admiral reversing the course during the next few months.

Traditionally, the euro goes up during the fall season which sounds like it started doing it now.

[J. Abizeid]

Euro May Rise to 9-Month High Versus Dollar: Technical Analysis - Bloomberg.com


Euro May Rise to 9-Month High Versus Dollar: Technical Analysis




By Yoshiaki Nohara and Shigeki Nozawa


Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may rise to a nine-month high against the dollar by the end of this month, Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
The euro is likely to climb toward $1.4719, a level that represents a 100 percent Fibonacci retracement from the six- month low of $1.2457 reached on March 4, said Masashi Hashimoto, a Tokyo-based senior analyst at the bank. Daily momentum indicators such as the moving average convergence/divergence chart show buy signals for the euro against the dollar, he said.
“The euro is in an uptrend,” Hashimoto said yesterday. “The euro used to drop quickly following moderate gains in June and August, but its recent rally bucks that trend.”
The 16-nation currency may rise toward a resistance level of $1.4866 should the currency climb above $1.4719, Hashimoto said. Resistance is where sell orders may be clustered.
The euro was at $1.4580 as of 8:26 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4582 in New York yesterday.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
To contact the reporter on this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net; Shigeki Nozawa in Tokyo at Snozawa1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 10, 2009 19:28 EDT

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

The dollar must come down so the US stock can go back up without affecting its effective value. (2X4 = 4X2)
Now more than ever, it’s safer to be invested in the US stock market than having your dollars hidden under the mattress.

Some genius said that on 24th November 2008


16th September 2009:
Euro $1.4723 and rising
Dow: 9791.71

[Venom]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

Some genius said that on 24th November 2008


16th September 2009:
Euro $1.4723 and rising
Dow: 9791.71

I don't think there is a real correlation in here, I will get you the correlation figure between the FX and markets next week when the Eid el Fitr Holiday is over....
Here a chart between the main US indeces and the EUR/USD

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by Venom

I don't think there is a real correlation in here, I will get you the correlation figure between the FX and markets next week when the Eid el Fitr Holiday is over....
Here a chart between the main US indeces and the EUR/USD

The dollar game has not been a fair one due to manipulations mainly by China and Japan but things are changing now.
Remember it’s the US dollar game vs. the rest of the world currencies not just the euro.
Some believe when dooms day comes, the US stock crashes, the dollar follows and gold shoots up way above $2.000.
For now, the correlation between economies and their currencies is real but the behavior between a real producing economy like Germany and China is opposite to the phony US economy that is based on consumption and printing paper dollars to support it.
The fundamentals have not changed a bit in the US economy. They are trying to re inflate a bubble that has so many holes in it by printing and pumping more fake dollars into it. Every time you see signs of life in that bubble, it’s caused by inflation not healthy economy. I other words more dollars for less value.

BTW, Happy Eid Fitr to you and all!

[admiral]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

[
It would be interesting to see the trend charts from Admiral reversing the course during the next few months.

Originally Posted by admiral

) if the EURO is able to break again the 1.40 -1.415 level it will continue its uptrend and reach to its previous high of 1.47 .

Now the real test for the strength of the euro is to be able to push above 1.48 -1.50 level ,

I posted the above few month ago , that once the 1.40-1.415 level is breached the euro will cruise to 1.47 , this is exactly what happened in past few days .(trading is not a rocket science , it just needs :concentration ,experience ,decision taking ability, emotion control and iron nerves )

now for the future , there is no doubt the euro is in a very strong up trend , however there is a very strong barrier lying ahead which is the psychological 1.50 level , many traders who are holding long euro positions will look very indecisive at this level since the greed /fear factor will take over their emotion , and they might push the sell trigger in case this level is not broken to the above , so i expect a lot of volatility in this area .

However if we are able to move above 1.50 -1.515 and sustain that up move for a couple of days surely the previous all time high of 1.60 will not be far away .

only a move below 1.38 will change the positive perspective of the euro to negative

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by admiral

I posted the above few month ago , that once the 1.40-1.415 level is breached the euro will cruise to 1.47 , this is exactly what happened in past few days .(trading is not a rocket science , it just needs :concentration ,experience ,decision taking ability, emotion control and iron nerves )

now for the future , there is no doubt the euro is in a very strong up trend , however there is a very strong barrier lying ahead which is the psychological 1.50 level , many traders who are holding long euro positions will look very indecisive at this level since the greed /fear factor will take over their emotion , and they might push the sell trigger in case this level is not broken to the above , so i expect a lot of volatility in this area .

However if we are able to move above 1.50 -1.515 and sustain that up move for a couple of days surely the previous all time high of 1.60 will not be far away .

only a move below 1.38 will change the positive perspective of the euro to negative

Thank you admiral,
I like your charts. They certainly make sense but only for short term investors.
I think smart long term investors know real well buying dollars for short term gain is risky business. I always felt the safest way is to secure at least 50% of your investment in something other than dollar including gold and, day trade the rest or save it in a high yield interest bearing LL savings account.
I still believe the LL is safer than the dollar. The reason is, not only you get higher interest return on it but the central bank, soon will become under pressure to boost its value possibly to 1.300LL to the dollar in order to compensate for the inflation in Lebanon caused by the melting dollar; the gas prices for an example. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-re...7&asset=&ccode=
Once again, the fundamentals of the US economy have not change and its present administration is more honest than the previous one. They no longer trying to fake it and the next G20 summit will show just that.