EURO vs USD

[Abou-Eddie]

Originally Posted by Abou-Eddie

You could have made the same argument when it crossed the 1.50 and the 1.40 levels. These are psychological levels which will always bring in buyers which creates a short term stubbornness and price levels hover around there until the resistance is broken and then you see quicker movements. In this case I would give it more a range of 1.28 to 1.32 and when the resistance breaks you will see the 1.23/1.25 levels very quick.

We are now at 1.24 and this morning we were under 1.24 at 1.2360. This is despite analysts expecting a decrease in interest rates by 1/2 pct in 2 days. The resistance level is very high. I think the 1.20 psychological level will be crossed very soon, perhaps this week. It is almost a mirror image of what is happening with oil which went down even after output being decreased. It is now at 63, expect it to reach 60 when the euro reaches 1.20.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by Abou-Eddie

We are now at 1.24 and this morning we were under 1.24 at 1.2360. This is despite analysts expecting a decrease in interest rates by 1/2 pct in 2 days. The resistance level is very high. I think the 1.20 psychological level will be crossed very soon, perhaps this week. It is almost a mirror image of what is happening with oil which went down even after output being decreased. It is now at 63, expect it to reach 60 when the euro reaches 1.20.

It’s obvious there is a plan for the dollar to reach a certain peak against all currencies excepted for the yen before it reverses course with vengeance.
Japan is not plying the game. They seem to be buying their currency back and getting rid of the dollar which is upsetting the G7 plan: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/g7-warns-yen-volatility-currency/story.aspx?guid=%7B11870235%2D4DBB%2D499A%2DBAA2%2 D3063C0237881%7D#comment912028

As I mentioned before, it’s not a euro game, it’s a dollar game. Its behavior is identical against the Canadian, Singapore dollar, Suisse franc even the Chinese Yuan.
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=CAD&submit=Convert
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=SGD&submit=Convert
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=CHF&submit=Convert
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=USD&to=EUR&amt=1&t=1y
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=CNY&submit=Convert

They want to make it sound that all those countries did something wrong since August but the US got it right while the US is the eye of the hurricane…..
Only Japan didn’t play the game mainly because their low interest rate could not afford them to.
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=USD&to=JPY&amt=1&t=1y
The real value of the dollar is determined by the Yen therefore all other currencies will follow soon. When the avalanche starts, it will be something to watch not be part of it,

[Raficoo]

Euro now $1.2405 with a low of $1.2336

[Abou-Eddie]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

More signs of desperation coming from the dollar land:
Keep on faking it baby…..

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081024/102408_fed_outlook.html

CNNMoney.com
Fed: New rate cut likely, with record low within sight
Friday October 24, 9:29 am ET
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates again next week. But could the Fed soon go where it has never gone before and bring them below 1%?

Above rate reduction has just been offset by below:

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the bank may cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting on Nov. 6 as the financial market crisis damps inflation pressures.

``I consider it possible that the Governing Council would decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting,'' Trichet said in a speech in Madrid today. ``It is not a certainty, it is a possibility.''

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by Abou-Eddie

Above rate reduction has just been offset by below:

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the bank may cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting on Nov. 6 as the financial market crisis damps inflation pressures.

``I consider it possible that the Governing Council would decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting,'' Trichet said in a speech in Madrid today. ``It is not a certainty, it is a possibility.''

As you mentioned before, lower oil prices seem to be the reward for supporting the dollar. I wouldn’t be surprised if $47 ($147-$100) the barrel will the bottom that triggers the reverse in oil and dollar.
As you also mentioned, interest rate changes seam to have minimum effect. They have a set target and oil is the best tool for that since oil prices are fixed. Demand and supply is a big lie.

[admiral]

Euro is having a nice rally in the last few days , let us watch and see if this is a merely "dead cat bounce" or this rally has really strong legs to support it , as mentioned before the next level for the euro to break is the 1.30 to 1.3255 level , if this level is broken the Euro will be heading towards the 1.3768 level which is also a strong resistance to break .

if the 1.30 -1.325 is not broken the euro will be heading down again to the 1.25 area.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by admiral

Euro is having a nice rally in the last few days , let us watch and see if this is a merely "dead cat bounce" or this rally has really strong legs to support it , as mentioned before the next level for the euro to break is the 1.30 to 1.3255 level , if this level is broken the Euro will be heading towards the 1.3768 level which is also a strong resistance to break .

if the 1.30 -1.325 is not broken the euro will be heading down again to the 1.25 area.

As soon as The Asian market opened on a positive note, the euro hit $1.3182 in anticipation of a DOW rally tomorrow.
I have a good idea what the equation is: The US market deflated down to its real size so far.
It will eventually inflate again only with the dollar deflation in order to hold its effective value.
The DOW could double overnight if each dollar becomes split in two small ones with the effective value of one.
Once again, it’s a dollar game.
I think it’s foolish for someone to hold cash dollars; either invest in the relatively cheap US stock market or get out of the dollar all together.

Thank you for monitoring the market. I think it will become very exciting during the next few weeks.

[J. Abizeid]

The next two article explain why the dollar went down last 48 hours
http://www.hemscott.com/news/static/tfn/item.do?newsId=69262790876834

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fed-extends-922-billion-special/story.aspx?guid=%7BCA6C4186%2DB967%2D4C27%2D8B52%2 D3BE783FCF50C%7D&dist=hplatest

I think we need to see oil go down towards $50 before the real trigger down takes place.
We need few more weeks…

[admiral]

Originally Posted by admiral

as mentioned before the next level for the euro to break is the 1.30 to 1.3255 level , if this level is broken the Euro will be heading towards the 1.3768 level which is also a strong resistance to break .

if the 1.30 -1.325 is not broken the euro will be heading down again to the 1.25 area.

Once again it was proven that reading charts correctly , and technical analysis of the charts is to a high degree accurate in determining the short term direction of the currencies.

Last week the Euro tried to break above 1.325 however it wasnt able to hold that level , and yesterday night it went down to the 1.2530 level.

for this week let us see if the Euro will be able to push up again and try to pass the 1.29 resistance level , or it will again loose momentum as it approaches that level and head down again to the 1.23 level .

Historically speaking , the USD always strengthened during the democrat president term , let us see how the market will react tomorrow after the results of the presidential elections are announced.

[Raficoo]

What's going on now? the euro keeps switching from 2.9 to 2.6 back and forth like every 2hours or so lol