EURO vs USD

[admiral]

Originally Posted by Abou-Eddie

You could have made the same argument when it crossed the 1.50 and the 1.40 levels. These are psychological levels which will always bring in buyers which creates a short term stubbornness and price levels hover around there until the resistance is broken and then you see quicker movements. In this case I would give it more a range of 1.28 to 1.32 and when the resistance breaks you will see the 1.23/1.25 levels very quick.

Usually buyers emerge as you mentioned at the psychological levels 1.30 , 1.40 ... . however in this move the buying emerged at 1.27 which is quite far from the 1.30 level , in addition this level of 1.27 doesnt coincide with any trend line or resistance or fib retracement to justify such a powerful bounce up of 200 pips , this is what made me suspicious that a Euro bounce might occur if the USD doesnt close below the 1.30 level by the end of the week.

[suomynona]

I think this is a perfect time to sell the USD against the CAD. OPEC is talking about cutting oil production.

I'm not that confident about a EUR recovery. Another option would be to speculate that EURCAD will go down from its current levels.

[Abou-Eddie]

Originally Posted by admiral

Usually buyers emerge as you mentioned at the psychological levels 1.30 , 1.40 ... . however in this move the buying emerged at 1.27 which is quite far from the 1.30 level , in addition this level of 1.27 doesnt coincide with any trend line or resistance or fib retracement to justify such a powerful bounce up of 200 pips , this is what made me suspicious that a Euro bounce might occur if the USD doesnt close below the 1.30 level by the end of the week.

Today is the end of the week and it is now at 1.263. So what is your take on the new info?
By the way, the bigger story than the Euro at this point is the Yen vs USD at 95.

[admiral]

Originally Posted by Abou-Eddie

Today is the end of the week and it is now at 1.263. So what is your take on the new info?
By the way, the bigger story than the Euro at this point is the Yen vs USD at 95.

Yesterday night at around after midnight the Euro was pushing up and it even reached 1.3006 , at noon today it reached 1.25 , i have never witnessed in my life such a move of 500 pips in a 12 hours period , and i am sure it never happened before .

This is a free fall and it seems there is no traders who are willing to bet on going long on the Euro right now "they dont want to catch a falling knife"

Technically speaking , if the euro falls below 1.25 , the next resistance is the 50% retracement from all time high at 1.60 to its all time low at 0.822 , which is around 1.215 , i expect a heavy battle at this area . On the upside the 1.30 is still the level to break to show a sign of life for the euro.

USD/ Yen even fell more than the EURO , from 98.08 to 90.90 , which is around 10% , which is also a record fall for a one day period .

Some people are bewildered that how come the USD is strengthening against the euro , while falling against the yen :
what is happening right now is that market is balancing itself , south east currencies were in the past few years held artificially to weak levels against the USD by the Far east central banks to boost their export market , if you remember the japanese central bank always interfered in the past to keep the yen above 100 yen ,in the past few weeks the central banks in the far east didnt interfere in the market and what we are witnessing today is the market balancing itself.

I believe the lesson learned from this financial crisis is that anything that is artificial and against the basics of the financial system is due to be doomed within a certain period of time .

[Raficoo]

WOW! **** Euro's going down fast, and oil is like $63/barrel, well one thing that surprises me is how he PLN(polish Zlotch) went up soo fast, which gives me a nice advantage, look at this chart:




when i was in Poland, 1$=2.0, now its 3+ , which basically implies that life would be 1.5X Cheaper, but i remember life used to be balash at this time:



wonder how far will things go

[Abou-Eddie]

Originally Posted by admiral

I believe the lesson learned from this financial crisis is that anything that is artificial and against the basics of the financial system is due to be doomed within a certain period of time .

Amen.
When you build a huge amount of houses in Las Vegas which potentially people do not need, when you build towers in Dubai which at the end of the day is in the desert, when you give multi-million dollar bonuses to 26 year old traders in New York and London, when the stock of a company that has never made a profit keeps going up, when people buy houses and before moving in have their eyes on where they will move next, when the US Dollar is compared to toilet paper in Beirut, you know you reached the point where change is imminent, very crucial, and healthy. This point is now.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by admiral

Yesterday night at around after midnight the Euro was pushing up and it even reached 1.3006 , at noon today it reached 1.25 , i have never witnessed in my life such a move of 500 pips in a 12 hours period , and i am sure it never happened before .

This is a free fall and it seems there is no traders who are willing to bet on going long on the Euro right now "they dont want to catch a falling knife"

Technically speaking , if the euro falls below 1.25 , the next resistance is the 50% retracement from all time high at 1.60 to its all time low at 0.822 , which is around 1.215 , i expect a heavy battle at this area . On the upside the 1.30 is still the level to break to show a sign of life for the euro.

USD/ Yen even fell more than the EURO , from 98.08 to 90.90 , which is around 10% , which is also a record fall for a one day period .

Some people are bewildered that how come the USD is strengthening against the euro , while falling against the yen :
what is happening right now is that market is balancing itself , south east currencies were in the past few years held artificially to weak levels against the USD by the Far east central banks to boost their export market , if you remember the japanese central bank always interfered in the past to keep the yen above 100 yen ,in the past few weeks the central banks in the far east didnt interfere in the market and what we are witnessing today is the market balancing itself.

I believe the lesson learned from this financial crisis is that anything that is artificial and against the basics of the financial system is due to be doomed within a certain period of time .

Something big is happening that seems to be interconnected between the universal stock market, gold and the currency,
The Nikkei as been collapsing last two days while the Yen is skyrocketing,
The DOW is also doing the same while the dollar is skyrocketing.
Why is the euro going down while the European market is going down?
They want you to forget the dollar is fiat money as well

The amazing thing this is that gold is going down while the US stock is going down and the dollar is up. It suggests a demand on the dollar not only from the fed reserve borrowing it but, from someone selling lots of gold. It happened before in the seventies when oil was brought down to $12 the barrel. The Saudis had to subsidize their lost revenue by selling their gold. As soon as they ran out of gold, oil was allowed to go up again, and gold started doubling in prices while the dollar tumbled.
History is repeating itself.
There are also rumors that suggest the fed reserves are selling their own gold to finance their debt which will eventually turn into a disaster for the dollar and its followers.
I see history repeating itself. The Saudis don’t have much of a choice and the Republican Administration is stealing their silverware before they leave the dining table.
What we are witnessing now is not much different than the Enron scandal.
Those who are betting on the dollar keeping its value up on the expense of low oil and gas prices might be very disappointed.
The oil cut today is a staged setup for the next wave of oil hikes.

Having said that, your charts seem to be working impressively; I guess they’ll do the same good job when the market reverse its trend.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

The amazing thing this is that gold is going down while the US stock is going down and the dollar is up. It suggests a demand on the dollar not only from the fed reserve borrowing it but, from someone selling lots of gold. It happened before in the seventies when oil was brought down to $12 the barrel. The Saudis had to subsidize their lost revenue by selling their gold. As soon as they ran out of gold, oil was allowed to go up again, and gold started doubling in prices while the dollar tumbled.
History is repeating itself.

How can we accept the fact that the US economy is bankrupt with its banks and markets collapsing and its debt increasing at a rate of $2 billion dollars a day, while the dollar is skyrocketing not only against the euro but the Canadian and Singapore dollar, the Suisse franc, the British pound and most importantly GOLD.
How can we trust a paper money from a bankrupt treasury department begging to borrow its own money, more than solid GOLD?
If it’s too good to be true, it is not.
It’s the illusion that the jungle is running out of monkeys until they release those monkeys out of the cage.
If we look at Enron stock chart before it collapsed, we can anticipate what will happen to the dollar. I remember how Enron was cutting power in California to make belief there is a shortage of energy. It’s an old corporate/republican trick that still fools people with short memory.
The skyrocketing charts for the dollar resemble the first part trajectory of a bullet going up. Once it reaches its peak it cannot stay there for one second. It must come down in a hurry.

[J. Abizeid]

More signs of desperation coming from the dollar land:
Keep on faking it baby…..

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081024/102408_fed_outlook.html

CNNMoney.com
Fed: New rate cut likely, with record low within sight
Friday October 24, 9:29 am ET
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates again next week. But could the Fed soon go where it has never gone before and bring them below 1%?

[Abou-Eddie]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

I fail to see how you can "obliterate" Arabs with oil at 50 Dollars when it costs anywhere between 6 to 8 dollars in the Gulf to extract it from the ground. After all, the level of 50 dollars was considered high only 2 years ago and Gulf states were doing very well even then. I see how it could severely affect their "extra cash", I understand that the plan is to weaken Arabs and rightfully so if you were to look at it from the US perspective but to take it that they will return them to "camel riders" is to say the least, unreasonable.