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Default 11th September 2008

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Originally Posted by J. Abizeid View Post
Manipulation is the name of the game but it has its own limitation.
It’s identified by its short life span before it reverses its own course. Those who lose their patience lose their shirts.
Looking at long term trends with no fundamental changes in market’s economy helps identify traps.
This summer oil prices is a good example.
As far as the US, its weak economy cannot sustain a strong dollar since the dollar is no longer its main export. Its economic outlook suggests it needs to bite the bullet and live with a weak dollar.
The way I look at it, it’s in my best interest to borrow a strong dollar but when time comes for me to pay it back, I want it to be smaller.
The US mushrooming debt is the dollars disease.
As far as Europe, they don’t have elections coming up. They don’t have a gas guzzling war. They are honest and transparent about their economy. And for the time being, they are recharging their batteries with low energy prices and competitive euro/exports that will help them take off within a few months. That is a problem for China which is the main dollar manipulator, and it will be acting accordingly.
The problem with your argument is that it assumes that things are going very bad in the US while things are rosy in Europe. This is definitely not the case.
Low energy prices? Energy prices are the set worldwide and can only be affected by exchange rate in any given country, and taxes on energy in Europe are higher than the US
Euro exports? we just reached 1.40 yesterday, it needs a few months to have any significant impact on exports and even then 1.40 is still a high level to spark exports in any big way.
China the dollar manipulator? In fact it is the reverse. China's currency was pegged to the dollar for a very long time and it is the US which pressured China to revalue the yuan and it went from 8.23 to 6.85.
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Default 11th September 2008

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Originally Posted by Abou-Eddie View Post
The problem with your argument is that it assumes that things are going very bad in the US while things are rosy in Europe. This is definitely not the case.
Low energy prices? Energy prices are the set worldwide and can only be affected by exchange rate in any given country, and taxes on energy in Europe are higher than the US
Euro exports? we just reached 1.40 yesterday, it needs a few months to have any significant impact on exports and even then 1.40 is still a high level to spark exports in any big way.
China the dollar manipulator? In fact it is the reverse. China's currency was pegged to the dollar for a very long time and it is the US which pressured China to revalue the yuan and it went from 8.23 to 6.85.
All I’m saying is: The economic fundamentals for both the US and the rest of the world including Europe have not changed since the euro reached $1.60 other than the US government committing to bail out more of its fraudulent financial institutions requiring more dollars to be printed without gold coverage.
The US recharges its batteries with petrodollars when oil goes up. Europe recharges theirs when oil goes down. They alternate turns.
The irony about this administration is that it preaches small government and less tax; apparently, small government applies only to universal healthcare to its citizens not to bailing out its corporations which will eventually translate into more taxes and a weaker dollar.
Some still believe in Santa,
How about if we wait and see,
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Default 11th September 2008

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Originally Posted by J. Abizeid View Post
All I’m saying is: The economic fundamentals for both the US and the rest of the world including Europe have not changed since the euro reached $1.60 other than the US government committing to bail out more of its fraudulent financial institutions requiring more dollars to be printed without gold coverage.
The US recharges its batteries with petrodollars when oil goes up. Europe recharges theirs when oil goes down. They alternate turns.
The irony about this administration is that it preaches small government and less tax; apparently, small government applies only to universal healthcare to its citizens not to bailing out its corporations which will eventually translate into more taxes and a weaker dollar.
Some still believe in Santa,
How about if we wait and see,
The key word in your post is "fraudulent". You used it when refering to the now ailing financial institutions which you are right are a fraud. But, manipulation of financial markets is the biggest fraud but it happens all the time and always did (although on a lesser scale), c'est la vie! Manipulators benefit the most when they do things when you least expect it. They devalued the dollar in 2002 when all economic fundamentals were sound and now they are revaluing the dollar when economic fundamentals are flawed. Often, if you try to put yourself in the shoes of the manipulators, Santa shows up and swells your pocket.
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Default Euro slides against dollar, yen - 12th September 2008

Source: Euro slides against dollar, yen - Yahoo! News

LONDON (AFP) - The euro came under heavy pressure against the dollar and yen Thursday on increasing speculation that the eurozone will not be able to escape a recession later this year.

Dealers said the euro had been hard hit by Wednesday's sharp downgrade in 2008 eurozone growth estimates to 1.3 percent from the previously given 1.7 percent from the European Commission.

They said the dollar has maintained its safe haven status and in times of such financial market turmoil as now, investors were seeking safety for their money.

Later Thursday, the euro managed to recover some ground after more losses on Wall Street stoked persistent concerns about the US economic outlook and banking system.

In late London trade, the euro was at 1.3943 dollars, coming off an early low of 1.3882 dollars -- its weakest level since September 18, 2007.

The euro had traded at 1.3976 dollars in New York late on Wednesday.

The single currency also tumbled against the yen, hitting its lowest point since September 2006 on heightened concerns about the European economy.

The euro was quoted at 148.43 yen in late London deals, just off the two-year trough of 148.38 yen seen earlier but still well down from 150.67 yen on Wednesday.

The dollar meanwhile fell to 106.57 yen from 107.81 yen.

The single European currency was sold off after the European Commission warned Wednesday that the 15-member eurozone was teetering on the brink of recession.

"As Europe and even emerging economies struggle from the fallout (from the US subprime home loan) crisis, the (view) is that the US is doing relatively well compared with the rest of the world," said Sumitomo Trust Bank chief foreign exchange strategist Saburo Matsumoto.

"The dollar appears sandwiched between conflicting forces," said Stuart Bennett at Calyon, the French investment bank.

"On the one hand, financial market uncertainty and equity market softness should not favour the dollar ... On the other hand, clear signs that the European slump is outpacing that in the US still favour the dollar.

"Hence, the exchange rate looks set to hover around this 1.40 (dollars) level until it becomes clear which of the factors is exerting the most pressure," Bennett said.

In late London trade Thursday, the euro changed hands at 1.3943 dollars against 1.3976 late Wednesday, at 148.43 yen (150.67), 0.7957 pounds (0.7986) and 1.5885 Swiss francs (1.5908).

The dollar stood at 106.57 yen (107.81) and 1.1406 Swiss francs (1.1382).

The pound was at 1.7505 dollars (1.7499).

On the London Bullion Market, the price of gold fell to 740.75 dollars per ounce from 775.75 dollars late on Wednesday.
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Default 12th September 2008

Dollar retreats on Lehman buyout hopes - MarketWatch

Lehman buyout hopes cap dollar


By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:36 a.m. EDT Sept. 12, 2008

The euro, which earlier this week had plunged below the $1.40 level for the first time in a year, stood at $1.4105, up from $1.4019 in North American trading late Thursday
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Default 13th September 2008

Oil went below $100 on Friday but the euro went up to close at $1.4212 which means lower oil prices below the $100 mark started hurting the dollar instead of helping it partly because of decrease on dollar demand to buy oil.
It’s an interesting observation. When oil moves down from a record high the dollar moves up to a certain point beyond which it starts reserving course in a parabolic shape.
With all the manipulations the euro hit its bottom in the $1.38 area which means it will be building up on that base from now on.
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Default 15th September 2008

The euro is hanging around $1.44 today in the Asian market where it reached $1.4479.
In general, the Asians have more appetite for the dollar. I wouldn’t be surprised if I saw the $1.45 barrier broken in the US market today even though oil is not moving much anymore.
Apparently, the simple reality is sinking in.
The real-estate mortgage will need 2 trillion dollars over the next 2 years before it gets back on its feet. Over 100 financial institutions are in trouble and will need to be bailed out by printing more federal dollars therefore diluting its value. The other worst option would be to allow them to collapse and default on the Chinese and European depositors/investors which would trigger them to pull the rest of their investments away and go somewhere else they can trust.
Bear Sterns, Freddy and Fanny, and now Lehman are just the tip of the Iceberg that could no longer be concealed until after the elections.
Another peace of information is that the Feds are contemplating an interest rate cut instead of a hike under the pretext that lower oil prices helped reduce inflation.
It will be a rocky road for the US. Don’t feel bad if your favorite presidential candidate loses. I’m happy mine has no chance at all!
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Default 15th September 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/lehman-file-under-chapter-11/story.aspx?guid=%7B50D06AF4%2D0AD5%2D4B38%2D8206%2 DD4C8D6E62EC7%7D

Lehman plans to file for bankruptcy protection

This is the worst of the two evils for the long term US credit and economy.
Germany already expressed their disappointment.
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Default 15th September 2008

Dollar staging a comeback today and trading at this moment at 1.4115 while oil is at $94.85. You that there is momentum when something is withstanding so much pressure (today is one of the worst days in history for the financial markets). As soon as the dust settles, the real bulls will come back.
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Default 16th September 2008

When the dust settles we start picking up the pieces.
The dust we are looking at is not speculations. It’s another collapsing pillar.
How many more pillars need to collapse in order for us to feel the danger.
By the end of the day, oil was brought down by 7% by design but the euro still closed higher than its opening session which means they are running out of magic tricks.
As I mentioned earlier, lowering the interest has become reality confirming desperation.
I frankly doubt they can maintain their magic show till November. I can see them drop the big ball much earlier.
I certainly don’t want to be under such a squeaking roof.
I’m sure many Lehman ex employees agree.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080915/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates
Wreckage from a massive crisis on Wall Street could prompt the Federal Reserve to do an about face and once again cut a key interest rate this week

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT...&w=1&t=l&a=200
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