Your family: 2009 V/S 2005 elections, any change?

[JoeFPM]

my (direct) family in 2005 : 6 elligible to vote and 5 minors... the 6 voted for FPM

in 2009: 9 elligible to vote and 2 minors... out of the 9 elligible to vote, 1 is a monk :) 1 an army officer (so both cant vote) , 4 will vote FPM and 3 will vote March 14

[joseph_lubnan]

Originally Posted by SISCO

I have just returned after 2 weeks of vacation in Lebanon.
What i noticed is a hate against FPM and specially from those who don't follow a specific party or leader. Not to mention some FPMers who didn't hesitate to insult FPM.
These people were Pro FPM last year

Some will tell that this is caused by the FTV, LBC, etc. propaganda. But in my opinion there is a problem that will cost FPM a lot in the next elections.

Maybe i am wrong and the ~100 person that i talked to don't represent a good sample.
Time will tell us !

Regards,

I have been talking about a major shift in the Independents sentiment in the Christian street for ever now it seems. Finally 2009 is here and we will see how it will unfold in the contested Christian areas. My guess remains that this shift will hurt FPM more than it wants to believe today in areas where its alliance with HA and some Feudals, cant bring it replacement votes.

[Diabolo_7]

Originally Posted by joseph_lubnan

I have been talking about a major shift in the Independents sentiment in the Christian street for ever now it seems. Finally 2009 is here and we will see how it will unfold in the contested Christian areas. My guess remains that this shift will hurt FPM more than it wants to believe today in areas where its alliance with HA and some Feudals, cant bring it replacement votes.

Lets take the elections in 2005 as a template and try to figure out FPM's chances in the upcoming elections.

in 2005: FPM and allies got 70% of the vote in the Christian areas vs 30% for the loyalists.

Most of the statistics that have been done, give FPM anywhere between 40-50% of the electorate.

Lets assume it is 40%. Therefore in 2005, the independent vote that went to FPM amounted to 30% of the total electorate.

On the other hand, lets assume that the independent vote for the other list amounted to 5% of the total electorate.

Independents make 35% of the electorate.

in 2005: FPM got 30/35% (85% vs 15%)
in 2009: FPM needs 10/35% (30%) in order to win.

I think FPM can manage to get 1/3rd of the independents vote in 2009.

[hannaalsayssa]

the christian votes that matters are in the christian kazas and particularly in jbeil keserwan matn koura zghrata zahle beirut 1 jezzine

and there we will still get the 2/3 of independents easily...

as long as jama3ett tanak al zeit talk about a centrist lista it means that they know they are weak.

worry when they start metioning running themselves, till than

[SamerTayyar]

we vote mostly in Jbeil and some in keserwen.

direct family: dad and both sisters voted FPM, my mom voted LF but now she proclaims shes independent(dont worry we will make her vote FPM) , my bro
casted in a white paper in 2005( he hates politics even more now w tays)

Dads family all FPMers as most of them served under GMA in Liberation war

moms family will vote to whoever sleiman supports in jbeil and if not they
said they wont vote with 3 exceptions who became FPMers. They voted for march 14 in 2005....

as for me well I will support the kitle wasatiye as its with neither sides and
has great moderate politicians like feris s3ed and mansour el bonbon.

.....................

NOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT.....

[rajaa]

hi,we are 6 in family and in 2005 we vote all for general but now we need to vote for lebanese-forces.thanx michel aoun for your bad politcs

[>Watani<]

Originally Posted by rajaa

hi,we are 6 in family and in 2005 we vote all for general but now we need to vote for lebanese-forces.thanx michel aoun for your bad politcs

hey Raja, we are 6 in family and we vote Change and Reform in 2005, and we will vote the same in 2009.
Please can you tell me what bad politics do you mean?
** the Law 1960?
** understanding with a big party and one important lebanese religion?
** draw good, transparent and public relation with syria?

Welcome to the Forum

[lucy78]

the whole family is mixed between fpm, lf and marada

[Zghertewe]

Originally Posted by rajaa

hi,we are 6 in family and in 2005 we vote all for general but now we need to vote for lebanese-forces.thanx michel aoun for your bad politcs

We are 150 in my family...we voted for Geagea in 2005 but now we will be voting for el General..
Rou7 eda7ak 3ala gherna..Bass Na2le naw3iye from Aoun to Geagea..

[orangeflavor]

My family voted to LF in 2005 but because of Geagea bad politics we will vote for GMA :-p what do you guys think of this propagenda?