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[ecce homo]

In Lebanon, something's got to give
Failure to agree on a new president could have wide-ranging repercussions
MARK MACKINNON

From Friday's Globe and Mail

November 23, 2007 at 3:48 AM EST

BEIRUT — For an entire year, a tent city has occupied the centre of this city, an expression of the hatred Hezbollah and its allies have for the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. But the government hasn't fallen.

For just as long, Mr. Siniora and his cabinet have spent most of the time hiding inside the Prime Minister's office and a nearby five-star hotel, a manifestation of the fear they feel after a long string of political assassinations targeting their ranks. Yet none of the killings have ever been prosecuted.

After 12 months of political deadlock that has paralyzed this country, something finally has to give today as Lebanon's seemingly never-ending political crisis enters a new phase.

By midnight tonight, duelling political factions will either have to compromise to select a new president, or there will be a political void, one that many Lebanese fear could transform this cold conflict into a hot one.

"Last day before zero hour: either a miracle or vacuum," blared the headline in yesterday's An-Nahar newspaper.

The parliamentary vote to choose a successor to President Émile Lahoud has been postponed four times, highlighting just how crucial and complicated it is to find a candidate acceptable to both Mr. Siniora and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, not to mention their allies abroad.

Mr. Siniora's government is backed by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia; Hezbollah by Syria and Iran.

How Lebanon goes today is likely to have broad implications. A compromise could herald a broader détente that would boost prospects for next week's Mideast peace summit put together by U.S. President George W. Bush, and even perhaps help cool tensions over Iran's nuclear program.

But if the process collapses into chaos, and many observers predict it will, it could be a harbinger of more violence throughout the region.

Adding to the implications in a region increasingly torn along sectarian lines is the fact Mr. Siniora and his key backer, Saad Hariri, are Sunni Muslims, while Hezbollah is a Shia movement. Both sides have Christian allies.

Hours before Mr. Lahoud's term expired, everything was still possible yesterday. Crisis talks continued late last night, with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner desperately trying to mediate. All sides, however, suggested the odds of a compromise were growing slimmer.

The country's constitution mandates that the president must be a Maronite Christian, one of the three main religious groups in the country. The opposition wants Michel Aoun, a popular and controversial former general, in the post, while the pro-Western side wants a technocrat.

Mr. Siniora's allies have vowed that if no deal is reached, they will use their parliamentary majority to choose a president from their own ranks. The opposition has warned it would boycott such a vote, not recognize the new president, and set up a parallel administration. The two sides are already blaming each other for the looming failure. "We suspect that Syria and Iran do not really want a new president. They feel much more comfortable with a void," Nayla Mouawad, a minister in Mr. Siniora's cabinet, said in an interview.

If no president is named by midnight tonight, the constitution allows Mr. Siniora to assume executive powers on an emergency basis.

Mr. Lahoud - who was installed by Damascus in 1998 while Syrian troops still occupied Lebanon - has warned that he would take "extraordinary measures" to avoid a power void. Those could include handing power over to the head of the army, General Michel Suleiman, when his term expires at midnight.

"Mr. Lahoud will not leave the country to fall into chaos and let Siniora assume the presidency," predicted Ibrahim Moussawi, editor of al-Intiqad, a newspaper affiliated with Hezbollah. "What happens next, no one knows."

Amal Saad Ghorayeb, visiting scholar with the Carnegie Middle East Centre, said Mr. Siniora and his allies - collectively known as the March 14 coalition - now face an unpalatable choice. They either capitulate to the opposition and agree to a candidate imposed on them by Hezbollah, or face the prospect of violent confrontation against an opposition that is far better armed than they are.

"March 14 is stuck between a rock and a hard place," Ms. Ghorayeb said. "It's the opposition who are calling the shots."

Key problems facing any new president would be whether Hezbollah should be allowed to keep its weapons, and the international tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of Mr. Hariri's father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri.

More broadly, the governing coalition would like to make peace with neighbouring Israel, while Hezbollah and its allies argue that can't happen until Israel first withdraws from all the territory it has occupied since 1967, including the disputed Shebaa Farms region at the meeting point between Syrian, Lebanese and Israeli territory.

How the crisis could play out

Possible scenarios for Lebanon's presidential election:

Compromise candidate Finding someone who satisfies both the pro-Western ruling coalition and the Hezbollah-led opposition seems increasingly unlikely. A list of possible candidates drawn up by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir has reportedly been rejected by the opposition.

Parallel governments Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his allies hold a simple majority in parliament, and have for months suggested that if no compromise is reached, they could go ahead and elect a member from their own ranks. The opposition says such a move would be unconstitutional since the president needs to be elected by a two-thirds majority, and have threatened to respond to such a step by naming their own president and cabinet.

Void at the top An increasingly likely scenario would see Mr. Siniora assume executive powers on an interim basis. The opposition is heatedly against such a move, especially since Mr. Siniora is a Sunni Muslim and the constitution stipulates that the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian.

State of emergency Outgoing President Émile Lahoud, who was installed nine years ago by Syria, could declare martial law and hand power over to the popular head of the army, General Michel Suleiman.

Interim president Another scenario that's been proposed in recent days would see a interim president installed for an 18-month period, with a mandate limited to overseeing fresh parliamentary elections. This scenario has the benefit of putting the crisis off, but would be seen as a victory for the opposition, since opinion polls suggest that Hezbollah and its allies would triumph in any new election.

Source: Mark MacKinnon

[Youchka]

Originally Posted by Hye4Lebanon

Lebanon's inability to pick a president could bring chaos

BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Less than 24 hours before the Lebanese president's term will expire, no one has been chosen to replace him.

Emile Lahoud's presidential term is set to end Friday at midnight (5 p.m. ET).

Parliament was scheduled to meet Friday to try for a fifth time to elect a president, but there were indications that the session would be canceled.

Pro- and anti-Syrian lawmakers had come to no agreement over a compromise candidate to replace the pro-Syrian Lahoud.

The Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition has suggested it might form a rival government.

Failure to settle on a candidate could lead to a power vacuum -- or worse. The army and other security forces were on full alert as the nation braced itself for possible violence.

The country's recent history includes near-constant factional fighting, political maneuvering and friction with Syria.

The election has been overshadowed by assassinations and attempted assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians.

In February 2005, the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut sparked widespread protests that led to the ouster of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

U.N. investigators concluded last year that Hariri's death may be linked to high-ranking Syrian officials. Syria has denied any involvement in the killings and said the U.N. tribunal investigating Hariri's death is a violation of its sovereignty.

In the past two years, four members of the Lebanese parliament have been assassinated. Watch how Lebanon got into this bind »

Meanwhile, members of the Western-backed parliamentary majority were holed up Thursday inside a Beirut hotel meeting in emergency session.

A general who is a powerful Christian leader, backed by Syria and allied with Hezbollah, appeared Thursday on television offering himself as a compromise candidate.

But his offer was rejected by the Western-backed majority led by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated prime minister.

For the past few weeks, top-level mediators from France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries have been trying unsuccessfully to break the deadlock.

Some analysts suggested the president could name an interim military governor and House Speaker Nabih Berri hinted that he might postpone elections.


The foreign ministers of France, Italy and Spain issued a statement saying they have tried everything, and it is now up to the Lebanese to craft a solution.

Lebanese presidents are elected by the National Assembly for a six-year term and may not serve consecutive terms, according to the CIA Factbook. Lahoud was elected in 1998, the reference book says, and in 2004 the National Assembly voted to extend his six-year term by three years.

Source: CNN

Sorry????
Doesn't someone have to rectify these ignorants at CNN's information? Or scooping lies to their viewers is the usual thing to do?

[Hye4Lebanon]

Political crisis deepens in Lebanon

By SAM F. GHATTAS, Associated Press Writer
Fri Nov 23, 6:34 PM ET


BEIRUT, Lebanon - Lebanon's political tumult intensified as President Emile Lahoud said the country is in a "state of emergency" and handed security powers to the army before he left office late Friday without a successor. The rival, pro-Western Cabinet rejected the declaration.


Lahoud's final announcement created new confusion in an already unsettled situation, which many Lebanese fear could explode into violence between supporters of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora's Western-backed government and the pro-Syria opposition led by the Shiite militant group Hezbollah.

The departure of Lahoud, a staunch ally of the Syrian regime during nine years in office, was a long-sought goal of the government installed by parliament's anti-Syria majority, which has been trying to put one of its own in the presidency.

Hezbollah and other opposition groups have blocked legislators from electing a new president by boycotting ballot sessions, leaving parliament without the required quorum.

The fight has put Lebanon into dangerous, unknown territory: Both sides are locked in bitter recriminations, accusing the other of breaking the constitution, and they are nowhere near a compromise on a candidate to become head of state.

The army command refused to comment on the developments. The military, under its widely respected chief, Gen. Michel Suleiman, has sought to remain neutral in the political chaos, and Lahoud's statement did not give it political powers.

The capital was calm, and all sides were vowing to avoid violence. Even before the president's vague announcement, the military was in place to guard against the two sides' supporters taking the conflict to the streets. On alert for days, hundreds of soldiers stood with tanks, armored personnel carriers and jeeps in the area around the downtown parliament building as well as on roads leading into Beirut.

Lahoud stepped down when his term expired at midnight, smiling as he reviewed an honor guard on the way out of the presidential palace in the Beirut suburb of Baabda. "My conscience is clear," he told reporters. "Lebanon is still well."

Before getting into his car to go, he blasted Saniora's government, calling it "illegitimate and unconstitutional. They know that, even if (President) Bush said otherwise."

In the capital, some 2,000 government supporters gathered in a Sunni Muslim neighborhood cheered his departure, setting off fireworks, beating drums and shouting, "Lahoud Out!"

His departure left the presidency vacant after parliament failed again to convene earlier Friday to vote on a successor.

Lahoud's vaguely worded final statement, two hours before midnight, wasn't a formal declaration of a state of emergency, but he enflamed tempers with his reference to a "state of emergency" in Lebanon.

"Because a state of emergency exists all over the land as of Nov. 24, 2007, the army is instructed to preserve security all over the Lebanese territory," the presidential spokesman, Rafik Shalala, said.

The constitution requires the Cabinet to approve any state of emergency, and Saniora's government quickly rejected the announcement.

"It has no value and is unconstitutional and consequently it is considered as if it was not issued," said a government spokesman, who asked not to be identified because an official announcement had not yet been made by the prime minister.

Later, a government statement said the Cabinet "continues to shoulder its responsibilities and exercise its full authority."

Shalala argued Saniora's position didn't matter because his government was not constitutional — the position voiced by Lahoud and the opposition since the Cabinet's five Shiite Muslim members quit last year.

Further complications came with the expiration of Lahoud's term. Under the constitution, the government is supposed to take on the president's powers if he leaves office without a replacement. Lahoud had vowed not to hand his authorities to Saniora — and his reference to a state of emergency might have been an attempt to escape doing so.

Saniora signaled earlier that his government planned to assume the powers. His top ally, the United States, said Friday that was the proper path.

"This is the procedure stipulated by the Lebanese constitution, and will ensure that the government is able to continue conducting its business without interruption," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in Washington.

Calling for the election of a new president "as quickly as possible," McCormack said, "We urge all Lebanese political groups to do their part to maintain calm and promote security for Lebanon's citizens."

Opposition leader Michel Aoun warned the Cabinet that "usurping the role of the presidency" would increase its "illegitimacy." But he appeared to be trying to ease fears of violence by adding that the opposition would "calmly confront" the situation.

The military command declined to comment on the president's statement, but Suleiman, the military commander, told his troops earlier in the week to ignore the constitutional wrangling and "listen to the call of duty."

The anti-Syria camp has sought to capture the presidency to seal the end of Syria dominance of Lebanon, which lasted for 29 years until international pressure and mass protests forced Damascus to withdraw Syrian troops in 2005.

Hezbollah, which is an ally of Syria and Iran, and its opposition allies have been able to stymie the government's hopes by boycotting parliament, as they did Friday afternoon when the majority tried to convene a session to vote before Lahoud left office.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is aligned with the opposition, scheduled another session for Nov. 30 to give the factions more time to try to find a compromise candidate — something they failed to do in weeks of talks mediated by France's foreign minister and others.

Leaders from each side had been pledging not to take steps to provoke the other — though Lahoud's announcement raised the heat.

"We have no choice but to have a consensus," Saad Hariri, leader of the anti-Syria majority in parliament, said after the failed session. "It is not in Lebanon's interest that the (presidential) palace is left empty."

Another factor complicating the crisis was the U.S.-sponsored Mideast peace conference next week.

Government supporters have accused Syria of using its allies in Lebanon to block a deal on the presidency until it sees what it gets in the conference. Damascus wants the meeting in Annapolis, Md., to address its demands for the return of the Israeli-held Golan Heights.

France on Friday called for patience to resolve Lebanon's crisis but also chided Syria. French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Pascale Andreani said it's up to the "Syrians, like everyone else, to remember that the goal is not to hinder the process but to help it."

Source: Associated Press

[Hye4Lebanon]

Lebanon president steps down; asks army to 'preserve security'

CNN's Brent Sadler contributed to this report. Nov 23 2007

BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Lebanese President Emil Lahoud has left the presidential
palace and stepped down from his post, after not naming a successor, and is calling on the Lebanese army to preserve the nation's security.


A honor guard troops lined the walk in front of the palace for a farewell ceremony as Lahoud departed.

In the final minutes of Lahoud's term, which expired at midnight (2200 GMT), jubilant anti-Syrian demonstrators packed the streets, waving flags and setting off fireworks.

As the pro-Syrian Lahoud left the palace, he said his successor "should be a truly consensus president, and be (a) real man to stand by Lebanon the strong, that the countries of the world did not defeat."

One of Lahoud's last acts as president was to order the army to maintain security.

"There are conditions and risks on the ground that could lead to a state of emergency over all Lebanese territory as of the 24th of November 2007," said presidential spokesman Rafiq Shalala.

"Therefore, the president has entrusted the Lebanese army with security."

He said Lahoud is not declaring a state of emergency but calling on the army to maintain order. Watch how Lebanon got into this bind »

Lahoud's decision to hand security to the military leaves in place, for the time being, the government of Western-backed Prime Minister Faoud Sinioria.

The outgoing president took a swipe at that government, saying it is "illegitimate and unconstitutional -- and they know it. Even if Bush, America and the entire world said that it is a legitimate government, it is still illegitimate, and they know it."

David Welch, assistant U.S. secretary of state, said, "We think it's a good signal that so far, the army is committed and is imposing security."

There are security concerns, he acknowledged, but pointed to two statements from army commanders -- one calling for public order and one banning the carrying of illegal guns -- as a positive sign.

The development came at the end of a day when an opposition boycott kept Lebanon's parliament from choosing a successor to Lahoud.

Earlier Friday speaker Nabih Berri said in a statement that the session was postponed for a week until November 30 to give more time "for additional consultations to reach a consensus on electing a president," according to the Associated Press.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed his concern at the "fragility" of the situation in Lebanon in a statement released Friday afternoon. He urged all parties to remain calm as they work to reach a compromise.

Lahoud's presidential term ended Friday at midnight (2200 GMT).

Pro- and anti-Syrian lawmakers have yet to agree on a compromise candidate to replace the pro-Syrian Lahoud.

The Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition has suggested it might form a rival government.

Observers believe failure to settle on a candidate could create a power vacuum -- or worse. The army and other security forces were on full alert as the nation braced itself for possible violence.

The country's recent history includes near-constant factional fighting, political maneuvering and friction with Syria.

The election has been overshadowed by assassinations and attempted assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians.

In February 2005, the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut sparked widespread protests that led to the ouster of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

U.N. investigators concluded last year that Hariri's death may be linked to high-ranking Syrian officials. Syria has denied any involvement in the killings and said the U.N. tribunal investigating Hariri's death is a violation of its sovereignty.

In the past two years, four members of the Lebanese parliament have been assassinated.

A general who is a powerful Christian leader, backed by Syria and allied with Hezbollah, appeared Thursday on television offering himself as a compromise candidate.

But his offer was rejected by the Western-backed majority led by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated prime minister.

For the past few weeks, top-level mediators from France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries have been trying unsuccessfully to break the deadlock.


The foreign ministers of France, Italy and Spain issued a statement saying they have tried everything, and it is now up to the Lebanese to craft a solution.

Lebanese presidents are elected by the National Assembly for a six-year term and may not serve consecutive terms, according to the CIA Factbook. Lahoud was elected in 1998, the reference book says, and in 2004 the National Assembly voted to extend his six-year term by three years.

Source: CNN

[Hye4Lebanon]

Lebanon in void as presidential palace left vacant

By Jonathan Wright

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon stepped into uncharted territory on Saturday when time ran out on attempts to find a new president before President Emile Lahoud's mandate expired.

Lahoud, a pro-Syrian retired general in power for nine years, left the presidential palace vacant at midnight (5:00 p.m. EST) after parliament failed to find a successor acceptable to both sides in a bitter dispute with international ramifications.

Speaking in the palace driveway before riding off in a motorcade to his nearby private home, Lahoud said his conscience was clear and Lebanon was well.

The Lebanese must choose a consensus president quickly because the existing cabinet, which is backed by the United States and Europe, was illegitimate, he added.

"If that doesn't happen, the price for Lebanon will be high. I hope we can get there as quickly as possible," he said.

The cabinet, led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, says it automatically assumes the powers of the presidency until parliament agrees on a new head of state.

The United States, the United Nations, the European Union and conservative Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan are expected to recognize the cabinet's authority.

But the other side in the dispute -- an opposition alliance led by the Shi'ite Muslim group Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran -- says the country no longer has any recognized executive.

Before relinquishing the presidency on Friday evening, Lahoud ordered the army to take charge of security, saying the country ran a risk of descending into a state of emergency. The cabinet dismissed his decree as meaningless.

KEEPING HOPE ALIVE

Parliament failed on Friday to grasp its last chance to elect a head of state before Lahoud's term expired but Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri kept hope alive by asking members to meet again next Friday for another attempt.

Despite the claims of rival factions, there was no sign that the conflict would lead to violence soon. The army had deployed in central Beirut overnight for the parliament session.

Key members of the majority faction, including the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, kept the political temperature down by saying they remained in favor of finding a consensus candidate for the presidency.

Lahoud said that "the dangers of a state of emergency exist and have been fulfilled" but experts said the wording fell short of a declaration of a state of emergency.

"(The president) entrusts the army with the authority to maintain security on all Lebanese territory and put all armed forces at its disposal with effect from November 24," he added.

The United States, the European Union and the United Nations called for calm.

"The United States government commends Lebanon's armed forces and security services for their stated commitment to ensuring law and order," a U.S. State Department spokesman said.

The spokeswoman for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he "urges all parties to live up to their responsibilities and to act within the constitutional framework as well as in a peaceful and democratic manner".

Berri, a Shi'ite opposition leader, put off the presidential election vote for a fifth time on Friday.

The delay means the presidency, always held by a Maronite Christian under Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system, will be vacant for at least a week.

The U.S. State Department also issued a public announcement alerting U.S. citizens about the "strong possibility" of demonstrations and unrest in Lebanon because of the crisis.

(Additional reporting by Nadim Ladki and Yara Bayoumy; editing by Andrew Roche)

Source: Reuters

[Hye4Lebanon]

Lebanese presidency ends in chaos

Friday, 23 November 2007, 22:50 GMT

The term of Lebanon's president has ended with no elected successor and a bitter dispute over who is in power.
Before pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud left the presidential palace at midnight (2200 GMT) he issued an order that the army should take over control.

But pro-Western PM Fouad Siniora rejected the move and says that under the constitution he and his cabinet are in temporary power.

The latest in a series of attempts to find a new president failed on Friday.

The president is elected by parliament, but a vote was scuppered after the pro-Syrian opposition did not allow the necessary quorum to be achieved. A new vote has been scheduled for 30 November.


KEY STEPS
Vote scheduled 1300 (1100 GMT) Friday but not held. Speaker sets vote for 30 November
President Emile Lahoud's term expires 0000 Saturday
If the presidency become vacant, constitution says presidential powers passed to PM Fouad Siniora


Mr Lahoud refused to recognise Mr Siniora's government and analysts say his security move was effectively a call for a state of emergency.

The US has urged all parties to remain calm and said that under the constitution the Lebanese cabinet should "temporarily assume executive powers and responsibilities until a new president is elected".

Shortly before midnight, Mr Lahoud, 71, walked out of the Baabda presidential palace as the national anthem played, ending nine years in office.

AFP news agency quoted him as telling reporters: "If they do not elect a new consensual president, with the required two-thirds majority, we have men who can stand up."

The BBC's Kim Ghattas in Beirut says that opponents of Mr Lahoud have been celebrating the departure of man they see as the last remnant of Syrian influence over the country.

She says the country appears to be in the ultimate political limbo, with the rival parties even in disagreement over whether a state of emergency exists.

'Not valid'

A few hours before his term was due to end, Mr Lahoud issued a statement via a spokesman, Rafiq Shalala.

It said the army would have responsibility for maintaining order throughout the country.


"There are conditions and risks on the ground that could lead to a state of emergency," Mr Shalala said.

However, constitutionally Mr Lahoud could not call for a state of emergency without the backing of the government he did not recognise.

Mr Shalala said the army would "submit the measures it takes to the cabinet once there is one that is constitutional".

A spokesman for Mr Siniora told AFP news agency: "The statement issued by the general directorate of the president of the republic is not valid and is unconstitutional. It is as if the statement was never issued."

The head of the army has refused to comment. Gen Michel Suleiman was appointed by Mr Lahoud but has largely sought to keep the military neutral.

Our correspondent says there are reports that he has agreed to follow the cabinet's orders but that the situation may become clearer in the morning.

However, she says the one thing everyone does agrees on, at least for now, is that they do not want a return to violence.

Tension on streets

The election of a president requires a two-thirds majority, which means that the pro-Western ruling bloc - with only a slim majority - could not force its preferred candidate through parliament.

The tension was palpable on the streets as the crisis over electing the president came to a head, with the army deployed in force and schools closed, our correspondent says.

Checkpoints were set up and the ministry of interior suspended all firearm permits until further notice.

The crisis has raised fears of civil strife, including the possibility of rival administrations.

The issue has turned into a regional and international affair.

The US, Russia, Syria and Iran have all been intensely involved and there has been a lot of diplomatic shuttling between Damascus, Moscow, Tehran and Paris ahead of the end of Mr Lahoud's term.

Source: BBC

[Abou Sandal]

Lebanon's president hands power to army

Clancy Chassay in Beirut
Saturday November 24, 2007
The Guardian


Outgoing Lebanese president, Emile Lahoud, leaves the presidential
palace in Baabda, north of Beirut. Photograph: Ramzi Haidar/AFP/Getty

Lebanon was again plunged into uncertainty yesterday after parliament failed in a fifth attempt to elect a president, and the former Syrian backed-president Emile Lahoud, whose term ended at midnight, passed control of the security services over to the army, declaring a state of emergency.
The US-backed government of Fouad Siniora rejected the declaration. "It is as if the statement was never issued," said Siniora. The constitution says a president cannot call a state of emergency without government approval, but Lahoud and the Hizbullah-led opposition view the cabinet as unconstitutional following the walk out of its Shia ministers last year.

The country is now in a presidential vacuum, with thousands of troops deployed across Beirut, and is likely to stay that way until the elections, postponed until next Friday, are attempted again.

Neither side seems clear on what the army's mandate will be, with some expecting it to play a noticeably greater role in managing the state and others anticipating a continuation of the status quo. Few Lebanese have expressed surprise at the move. It is generally seen as a stalling measure to give the two camps more time to find a way out of the impasse.

Some constitutional experts have said the move is meaningless and analysts say Lahoud's offer was vague enough for the army to interpret it as it pleases.

"This is essentially a military authority to oversee negotiations, but if the government takes over Lahoud's responsibilities, the opposition will escalate," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb of the Carnegie Middle East Centre. "But if the army steps in and assumes a greater role in the managing of the state, the opposition will stay silent and focus on negotiations."

The government had said it would elect its own president without the participation of the opposition if a solution could not be reached. The opposition has said any such move is tantamount to a "coup". If the two sides cannot agree on a candidate, the opposition has threatened to set up a second government operating in tandem, as was the case at the end of Lebanon's 15-year civil war.

Washington made a statement after Lahoud's announcement calling for calm and pledging support to the Lebanese army and security services. The US state department appealed for Lebanon's military and security services to uphold the law and for political actors to negotiate.

It made no reference to Lahoud's emergency declaration, however, and said Washington understood that when his term expires "the Lebanese cabinet will temporarily assume executive powers and responsibilities until a new president is elected by Lebanon's parliament".

State department spokesman Sean McCormack said: "This is the procedure stipulated by the Lebanese constitution and will ensure that the government is able to continue conducting its business without interruption.

"The US government commends Lebanon's armed forces and security services for their stated commitment to ensuring law and order during this interim period, and we urge all Lebanese political groups to do their part to maintain calm and promote security for Lebanon's citizens."

In a travel alert, the state department noted Lahoud's action and said the election process "may pose security issues" for US citizens and others in the country.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/internatio...216402,00.html

[Abou Sandal]

State of emergency declared in Lebanon
By Tim Butcher in Beirut
Last Updated: 3:05am GMT 24/11/2007

Lebanon is bracing itself for violence after the pro-Syrian president declared a state of emergency to stop power passing to rivals loyal to the prime minister.

Just hours before his presidential term expired at midnight, President Emile Lahoud said he was handing power to the army to "preserve security all over the Lebanese territory".


Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora meets with Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman and officers

Politicians in Beirut had earlier failed to elect a new president, leaving the small but volatile Middle Eastern nation without a head of state for the first time in more than a decade.

The anti-Syrian prime minister, Fouad Siniora, immediately rejected the move, raising the prospect of a power struggle similar to that which plunged Lebanon into 15 brutal years of civil war in 1975.

Mr Lahoud made his dramatic announcement with just a few hours remaining of his nine years in office.

A spokesman for Mr Siniora's government responded that the statement "has no value and is unconstitutional and consequently it is considered as if it was not issued".

Large numbers of troops were deployed on the streets of Beirut and dozens of MPs were holed up in a heavily-guarded hotel in the centre of a city where political assassination is a way of life.

Fears also spread that groups loyal to Syria, including the powerful and militant Shia group Hizbollah, may move to set up a parallel government.


Lebanese troops secure an area of Beirut following the failure of
the Lebanese parliament to agree on a new president

The day had begun with Lebanese from all walks of life hoping that a suitable compromise candidate could be found to succeed Mr Lahoud.

With its divided population, consisting mostly of Maronite Christians and Sunni and Shia Muslims, Lebanon has traditionally looked to its president as a uniting figure capable of rising above factionalism.

The president in Lebanon is chosen by parliament but four months of political infighting between the pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian parliamentary blocs had failed to find a replacement for Mr Lahoud.

There is an unwritten agreement in Lebanon that its president must be a Maronite and while that was to be honoured there was precious little consensus on anything else.

Nabih Berri, the speaker of parliament and a Shia opposition leader who is no friend of Mr Siniora, decided on an eleventh-hour bid to reach agreement so he convened an extraordinary meeting of the parliament.

After this failed, however, Mr Berri postponed the session and gave the MPs a week to come up with a consensus candidate.

The US state department said that it hoped that the constitution would be respected and that the Lebanese security forces would maintain order so that the "government is able to continue conducting its business without interruption" as it sought a new president.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...lebanon124.xml

[Abou Sandal]

From The Times
November 24, 2007

President Emile Lahoud calls out army and quits amid a tense stand-off

Nicholas Blanford in Beirut

Émile Lahoud, the Lebanese President, charged the army last night with maintaining security in the crisis-stricken country as he stepped down from office after Parliament failed to elect his successor.

Declaring that “risks of a state of emergency” prevailed over the nation, Mr Lahoud ordered all Lebanese security agencies to be at the disposal of the army until a “legitimate government is formed”. The Government called on the army to ignore the outgoing President’s order, raising the risk of violent confrontation between rival factions.

Mr Lahoud made the dramatic announcement as Lebanon was slipping into a power vacuum. Under the Constitution he had to stand down at midnight after nine years in office. But even as the deadline loomed Parliament failed to elect a successor. The parliamentary session, boycotted by most opposition MPs, lacked the required quorum.

“A consensual president should be elected,” Mr Lahoud said as he left the presidential palace. “If they do not elect a consensual president with the required two-third majority, we have men who can stand up,” he added without elaborating.

“If we find a way to ride out the storm, we could get through it OK. But if we go down the road of escalation, we will be committing suicide,” Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Centre in Beirut, said.

The impasse has created a tense stand-off between the US-supported March 14 block, which forms the backbone of the Government, and the pro-Syrian Opposition, each waiting for the other to make the first move.

The March 14 block, which holds a wafer-thin majority in Parliament, has threatened to elect a president drawn from its own ranks if no consensus candidate was found. The move could spur the Opposition to form a rival government and take public action such as seizing government buildings.

Wiam Wahhab, an opposition member, told The Times that the election of a March 14 president would be “answered on the ground”. He added: “Whichever side is the strongest will win.”

Lebanon is split in support for the March 14 block and the Opposition. But the latter, led by Hezbollah, wields far greater military might. “The March 14 block knows the balance of power is in favour of the Opposition and Syria and Iran,” the as-Safir daily said.

If no president is elected, executive power falls to the Government. Mr Lahoud and the Opposition say that the present Government of the Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora, became unconstitutional after all five Shia ministers walked out a year ago. He has vowed not to turn over his authority to the Government on stepping down.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2933140.ece

[ecce homo]

Le vide politique au Liban
Article publié le 24/11/2007 Dernière mise à jour le 24/11/2007 à 06:55 TU

http://www.rfi.fr/actufr/articles/095/article_59439.asp

Le mandat d'Emile Lahoud a expiré à minuit. Le président, sans successeur, a confié la sécurité du pays à l'armée, ce que le gouvernement de Fouad Siniora a immédiatement rejeté. La crise s'aggrave.

Avec notre correspondante à Beyrouth, Diane Galliot

Le Liban n'a plus de président, mais la constitution libanaise apporte une réponse à ce vide : en cas de vacance de la présidence, c’est le Premier ministre qui assure l’intérim.

Quant à l’armée, pratiquement tous ses effectifs sont depuis 2, 3 jours déployés dans tout le pays, et au vu et au su de tout le monde. Le chef d’état-major avait d'ailleurs lancé une mise en garde très ferme il y a 3 jours, à la veille de la fête de l’indépendance : « Toute atteinte à la sécurité sera considérée comme un acte de trahison contre le pays ».

En de telles circonstance, on peut considérer la déclaration du président Emile Lahoud cette nuit comme une sorte de baroud d’honneur. D’ailleurs on n'a noté aucune réaction du côté du chef d'état-major, dont on sait que c’est un légaliste, et qui a même un temps été présenté comme un éventuel « présidentiable », ce qui serait anti-constitutionnel.

L'attente se poursuit donc, dans les même conditions que ces dernières semaines. Le gouvernement va expédier les affaires courantes, mais sans plus ; il s'agit d'un gouvernement d’union nationale, récusé par l’oposition, et dont les ministres chiites ( de l’opposition donc) ont démissionné depuis plusieurs mois, tout en continuant eux aussi d’expédier les affaires courantes.

C’est une situation très étrange, bloquée, qui laisse le pays en panne, notamment sur le plan socio économique. Une situation potentiellement très dangereuse, qui se poursuit donc faute d’accord entre la majorité et l’opposition sur le nom d’un futur président, qu’il faut élire au parlement à la majorité des 2/3 si l’on veut respecter la Constitution...ce qui implique l’accord du camp chrétien maronite du général Aoun et l'accord des partis chiites, dont le Hezbollah.

Qu'est-ce qui peut changer d'ci une semaine, nouvelle date pour l'élection espérée de ce fameux président de consensus que tout le monde attend ? Si l’on en croit certains députés de la majorité rencontrés hier apres l’échec de l’élection, c’est à Damas que les choses peuvent évoluer, à Téhéran, et à Washington.

Tout le monde attend la conférence d’Annapolis sur le Proche-Orient, qui pourrait, espèrent les plus optimistes, déboucher sur de nouveaux équilibres sous-régionaux qui permettraientt une sorte de rapprochement dans le pays entre les sunnites, que soutient Riyad, et les chiites, que soutiennent l'Iran et la Syrie.

Ce qui est le plus encourageant, c’est qu’il semble qu’il y ait au moins un consensus entre les camps politiques adverses pour éviter la violence, au moins pour le moment.