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[Hye4Lebanon]

From Hopeful To Helpless At a Protest In Lebanon

By Anthony Shadid
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, November 23, 2007


BEIRUT -- Squalls of rain lashed the offices of Carmen Geha and other young activists. Thunder rolling off the Mediterranean provided a cadence to their work. The weather was a little like politics this week in Lebanon -- turbulent and baleful. And Geha, optimistic against the odds, was determined to provide a glimmer of hope.

Lebanon finds itself in a familiar place these days, facing the unknown. Its worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war builds to a climax at midnight Friday, when the term of President Emile Lahoud ends. Despite weeks of French-led mediation, Lebanon's factions appeared unlikely to reach a consensus on Lahoud's replacement by the deadline, plunging the country into a constitutional limbo that sets up scenarios as diverse as the country's problems: rival governments, military rule or a vacuum, along with the civil strife each option could bring.

Geha and her colleagues readily admit the confrontation is bigger than they are. But on Wednesday, they organized a protest outside the parliament, planning to deliver a blunt demand, in the hopes that others would join them. Enough of a crisis, they said, that has brought a country still scarred by one war to the brink of another.

"The worst thing is that the rest of the world thinks we're condemned to this," said Geha, 22, shaking her head. "I'm sick of being a cliche."

Their campaign is called Khalass! -- Arabic for enough. It is a word heard often: in Beirut cafes, where talk of politics is sometimes banned, and in taxis, whose drivers lament traffic snarled by a 13-month opposition sit-in downtown. To Geha and her colleagues, the appeal is simple. But their protest, caught in a nexus between hope and futility, possesses many of the contradictions that drive the crisis forward: a democratic system not always that democratic, in which disillusionment rivals a sense of inevitability.

"We have to scream out that the situation is unbearable, that the deadlock will lead to war, that the politicians aren't doing their job in Lebanon," Geha said.

Her words were driven by anger that defied helplessness. As she spoke, the protest only two hours away, activists hurried in and out of the campaign's 10th-floor office, its desks littered with manifestos, Oreo wrappers and overflowing ashtrays.

"Why do you see 30 activists here and not 30,000?" Geha asked. It was a question posed often this day. "Why aren't there thousands of people doing this?"

This round of Lebanon's crisis is ostensibly over parliament's choice of a successor to Lahoud. But its roots go far deeper. On one side is a coalition around the American-backed government that claims legitimacy from a series of demonstrations that culminated March 14, 2005, and led to the end of Syria's 29-year military presence in the country. On the other is an alliance between Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim group supported by Iran and Syria, and Christian followers of Michel Aoun, a former general.

Unlike Lebanon's civil war, often characterized as a Christian-Muslim conflict, this crisis has mobilized the country's Sunni and Shiite Muslim communities against each other, with Christians divided between the two camps. At stake are questions fundamental to Lebanon's identity: its stance toward Israel, the influence of foreign patrons here, and the balance of power among the country's communities. To many, the choice of president will reflect the relative strength of one side or the other.


"This is the real Lebanon, you are seeing it now," said Sarkis Naoum, a columnist for al-Nahar newspaper. "When we say the Lebanese state, we are lying. We don't have a state. There is no Lebanese people. There are Lebanese peoples."

"Who talks in the name of Lebanon?" he asked.

Geha and her colleagues think they do.

"Tuck in your shirt," she told one of the activists as they gathered in the office to run through the final preparations for the protest.

Gilbert Doumit stood at the front. An organizer, he was one of a handful of people who, over coffee and cigarettes, came up with the idea for the Khalass! campaign in July, bringing together several activist groups. "What we were afraid of is now here," he recalled thinking. "We're at the door of another civil war." Before the group on this day, he spoke with an urgency tinged with an intoxicating playfulness.

"We need cigarettes," one activist shouted.

Everyone donned their T-shirts. "Enough!" they read in Arabic. "Who wants to be the spokesman?" asked the tall, bearded Doumit. "Who speaks Arabic, English and French?" Other questions followed: Who would make the statement at 2 p.m.? Where would the activists hide before gathering at parliament? Who would send out the 3,000 e-mails and 2,000 text messages by cellphone urging others to join the protest?

"Join Khalass! activists NOW on the stairs of the parliament!" the e-mail read.

The last instruction followed: Everyone needed an excuse to give to police officers manning barricades for why they wanted to enter Place de l'Etoile, the home of parliament.

"Not all of us can be going to get coffee," Geha said.

Geha was working on a master's degree at the American University of Beirut when clashes erupted at another university in Beirut in January. She decided then to leave school and work full time as an activist. As she drove to Wednesday's protest, she confessed to sharing a trait that sometimes defines Lebanon: She thrived on the country's chaos. Lebanon's lack of order meant there was always an opportunity to bring about change. But these days felt menacing and ominous. She shared with many others a resignation that the crisis would persist. But she had to do something. Otherwise, she said, regret would haunt her.

The car passed through streets soaked with rain. The gray sky accentuated an urban landscape that can sometimes seem funereal: poster after poster pays respect to the dead, victims of assassination or war. "So that Lebanon lives," one reads over the face of a murdered politician.

"I feel like I'm living in a city whose glory is based on dead people," Geha said.

The 30 or so activists waited in nearby restaurants and cafes. At 1:52 p.m., the signal arrived; Doumit headed for parliament. Geha followed, along with other groups of three and four people each. Under umbrellas, on the steps of parliament, they unfurled two banners.

"Enough!" the banners read, the black and white offering a resolute contrast to the cream-colored stone of the parliament building. "Together for Lebanon."

Police and soldiers responded. The building's black iron doors were shut. Metal barricades followed. Commanders spoke in a formal Arabic that conveyed sarcasm. "My brothers," one said. "If you please." Another grew angry, arguing with Geha and others.

"We're not allowed? This is our parliament!" Doumit insisted.

Ten minutes later, Doumit and Youmna Fawaz, 25, stood on the square's black brick to read a statement. Fawaz managed only a few words, a call for "an open-ended national dialogue," before police stopped her and escorted the few reporters from the square. It was a symbol, in a way, of the status quo, still dominated by many of the warlords who waged the civil war, where the unquestioned loyalty of religious communities is taken as a given. In the sometimes cynical backroom negotiations that define politics here, that fealty means that nobody has to listen. No one else's voice has to be heard.

"Unfortunately, we live in a country you call democratic, but as you can see, it's a country where citizens can't make an impact," Doumit said, his long hair wet as a rain began driving again. "The whole world is involved except us. The Saudis are involved, the Syrians, the Americans, the Iranians, the French, the Arab League, but not us."

By 2:30 p.m., the e-mails had gone out. So had the text messages. Geha made calls. She asked Lebanese reporters to come. Their reply: Which side are you on? She called a lawyer to help them negotiate with police. And she called friends, urging them to join.

"They should be on their way," she said.

A little while later, Doumit called out, laughing, "Support has arrived!"

It was his 26-year-old sister, Jinane, with two friends. No one else came.

The afternoon wore on, police no longer hassling the small crowd. Every so often, the protesters broke out in the national anthem. "All for the country," it went. But the mood was somber. Sara Mourad, a 20-year-old student, stood under her umbrella.

"When I see this, I lose hope, in a way," she said.

She planned to leave the country after she graduated.

"Anywhere is safer -- or more predictable," she added.

Geha took a break from the rain, sipping coffee in a restaurant that takes its name from the square, where former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri dined before he was assassinated in February 2005, an event that, over time, helped give rise to today's crisis.


"Every hour that passes is a wasted hour," she said. "They have to answer us."

Will they? "They should. They should," Geha answered.

It was a plea rather than a demand, her words more helpless than angry.

"There's only so much we can do," she said

Source: Washington Post

[Hye4Lebanon]

Lebanese still deadlocked as vote looms

By ZEINA KARAM, Associated Press Writer
Thu Nov 22, 5:26 PM ET

BEIRUT, Lebanon - A Christian opposition leader made a last-minute proposal Thursday seeking to resolve Lebanon's impasse over the presidency and avert a dangerous power vacuum, but the pro-Western parliament majority rejected the idea.

Foreign envoys trying to mediate a solution were pessimistic about breakthrough before a parliamentary vote Friday to choose a successor to President Emile Lahoud, a leader in the country's pro-Syria factions.

Lahoud's term expires Saturday and failure to elect a new president on time could lead to two rival governments, much like during the last two years of Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.

Three previous attempts have failed amid a power struggle between the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and the opposition led by Hezbollah, an ally of Syria and Iran.

Saniora's camp wants an anti-Syria figure to replace Lahoud, a staunch ally of Damascus, which controlled Lebanon for 29 years until it was forced to withdraw troops in 2005 under pressure from the international community and mass street protests in Beirut.

Michel Aoun, a Christian allied with the Shiite militants of Hezbollah, proposed a compromise that included naming a neutral candidate to serve a shortened presidential term — two years instead of six. The president would step down after parliamentary elections in 2009.

He also proposed that a neutral candidate be named to replace Saniora as prime minister and that a new unity Cabinet be appointed with 45 percent of its seats held by the Hezbollah-led opposition.

Aoun, who has a strong support base among Christians and Shiites, offered to withdraw his own presidential candidacy as part of the deal.

Accepting Aoun as president would be hard for the anti-Syria camp led by parliament majority leader Saad Hariri. Although he was long an opponent of Syria, Aoun has sided with Hezbollah throughout Lebanon's political crisis in the past year.

Leaders of the parliamentary majority met late Thursday and quickly rejected Aoun's proposal, saying it was against the constitution. They also warned Lahoud against making any unconstitutional moves before leaving office at midnight Friday.

The French and Italian foreign ministers said a breakthrough seemed unlikely.

"A miracle is still possible tomorrow but I think the issue is complicated," said French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who came to Lebanon on Monday trying to work out a deal.

Spain's foreign minister was also trying to mediate. France, Italy and Spain are the top contributors to the 13,600-strong U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, which borders Israel.

Pessimism settled over the country as it marked 64 years of independence from France on Thursday. "The last day before zero-hour: A miracle or power vacuum," read the headline of Lebanon's leading newspaper, An-Nahar.

Hezbollah and its allies have impeded previously scheduled presidential votes by staying away from parliament, preventing a quorum.

But the anti-Syria majority was threatening to elect a president by simple majority if no quorum was reached Friday, a move that would likely create turmoil and increase the risk of street violence.

In the absence of a president, the government would take executive power. But Lahoud vowed not to hand his authority over to Saniora's administration, considering it unconstitutional after all five ministers of the Shiite Muslim community quit a year ago.

Possible scenarios included Lahoud transferring presidential powers to the military chiefs, creating a rival government to take over the powers or even declaring a state of emergency — deepening the struggle with Saniora.

Source: AP

[ecce homo]

Le Liban face au vertige du vide
Crise. Alors que le mandat du président s’achève, l’élection de son successeur est bloquée.
Envoyés spéciaux à Beyrouth ISABELLE DELLERBA et JEAN-PIERRE PERRIN
QUOTIDIEN : vendredi 23 novembre 2007

http://www.liberation.fr/actualite/monde/293272.FR.php

Les efforts déployés par Bernard Kouchner, les émissaires envoyés par Paris à Damas ou les appels de Condoleezza Rice à la Syrie n’auront rien changé : ce soir, à minuit, les Libanais n’auront sans doute plus de chef de l’Etat pour une période indéterminée. Au dernier jour du mandat du président pro-syrien, Emile Lahoud, les députés de la majorité devaient se réunir au Parlement pour élire son successeur. Mais le feront-ils, sachant qu’ils risquent d’en trouver les portes closes ? On prête en effet à Nabih Berri, le président (prosyrien) de la Chambre, l’intention de ne pas vouloir tenir de session. Ce qui lui permettrait d’empêcher l’élection à la majorité absolue d’un président qui ne convienne pas à l’opposition.

«Faux pas». Depuis des mois, celle-ci refuse l’accession au pouvoir d’un président issu des Forces du 14 mars – la majorité antisyrienne élue au lendemain du départ des troupes de Damas en 2005. A la place, elle réclame l’élection d’une personnalité consensuelle. Mission jusqu’à ce jour impossible, les candidats éventuels – tous maronites comme le veut la tradition – étant rejetés soit par la majorité, soit par l’opposition. Même la médiation du populaire patriarche maronite Nasrallah Sfeir, très réticent à s’engager mais poussé par Paris à proposer une liste de candidats, a échoué.

Paris aura donc jeté en vain tout son poids dans la balance, en particulier ces derniers jours où Kouchner a multiplié les navettes entre les différents acteurs de la scène libanaise (lire ci-contre). Nicolas Sarkozy, lui, a téléphoné mercredi aux représentants des deux pôles, Saad Hariri et Michel Aoun. Convaincu que la clé du problème se trouve à Damas, il avait appelé la veille le président Bachar al-Assad et envoyé en Syrie deux de ses plus proches conseillers. Une initiative qui semble avoir contrarié les efforts du ministre français des Affaires étrangères à Beyrouth. Non seulement le régime syrien n’a rien lâché, mais il est sorti renforcé par les attentions de Paris à un moment où il était plus isolé que jamais sur la scène internationale, monde arabe inclus. Si la détermination de Kouchner a souvent été saluée, la politique française à l’égard de Damas a été jugée plus sévèrement, certains observateurs proches de la majorité la qualifiant d’«amateurisme» ou de «faux pas».

Du côté américain, Condoleezza Rice a aussi laissé entendre qu’une relance des relations avec la Syrie aurait lieu si elle mettait fin à ses ingérences au Liban. On est loin des pressions de naguère qui, conjuguées aux manifestations du «printemps de Beyrouth» avaient obligé l’armée syrienne à quitter le Liban. Echec là encore, comme le montre l’attitude de Nabih Berri, l’un des hommes de Damas au Liban. «Il y a un responsable principal à la crise actuelle, c’est Berri. La Constitution ne lui donne pas le droit d’empêcher la tenue d’une session. Il aurait dû laisser le jeu démocratique se faire. Il n’y a pas de raison de chercher une entente hors des institutions : le Liban n’est pas un Etat féodal», souligne Alexa Hechaïme, professeur de droit à l’université Saint-Joseph de Beyrouth.

En fait, analyse le politologue Khattar Abou Diab, «ni l’Iran ni la Syrie ne veulent sérieusement d’une élection au Liban. Sinon, l’un aurait fait pression sur le Hezbollah, l’autre sur Nabih Berri. Quant aux Etats-Unis, on peut avoir un soupçon légitime : en ne faisant pas pression sur Damas, ne veulent-ils pas créer un “chaos créatif” pour pousser à un affrontement avec le Hezbollah ?»

«Illégitime». D’ores et déjà, le «parti de Dieu», la force dominante de cette opposition, a assuré Emile Lahoud que toute décision prise avant la fin de son mandat serait constitutionnelle. En clair, il l’encourage à prendre des mesures «de sauvegarde» pour pallier un vide institutionnel que les alliés de Damas ont largement cherché à créer. En l’absence de président, c’est le Premier ministre qui, selon la Constitution, assure l’intérim. Dans la majorité, on craint que Lahoud, qui estime «illégitime» le cabinet de Fouad Siniora, puisse se tourner vers l’armée et nommer son commandant en chef, Michel Sleimane, à la tête d’un gouvernement provisoire.

Une autre solution pourrait être, pendant une phase transitoire, «une vacance du pouvoir organisée» entre majorité et opposition, ce qui permettrait d’éviter la formation d’un gouvernement parallèle. Hier soir, Michel Aoun proposait une ultime solution : l’élection d’une personnalité indépendante pour une période limitée.

[ecce homo]

Liban : la France impuissante

http://www.chretiente.info/eglise_ca...c_article=9395

Terrible constat pour Le Figaro : la diplomatie française est incapable de conclilier les Libanais. Ce soir à minuit, le président Lahoud remet son mandat et son successeur reste improbable. En l’absence de, le pays s’apprête à basculer dans un vide constitutionnel ouvrant la voie à une confrontation entre la majorité et l’opposition avec à la clé des risques de violents dérapages. Bernard Kouchner s'est rendu à l'évidence :

«C’était aux Libanais de décider, ça n’a pas été possible».

Cela n'a pas été possible, car toute pression française sur le Hezbollah, Damas ou même l'Iran pourrait avoir de graves conséquences pour les soldats français présents au Liban...

L’annulation de l’élection présidentielle est interprétée à l’étranger comme un aveu d’impuissance d’une diplomatie française incapable malgré ses efforts de peser sur les événements au Liban, le seul pays du Proche-Orient où elle encore censée exercer une forte influence.

Michel Janva

[Hye4Lebanon]

Lebanon's inability to pick a president could bring chaos

BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Less than 24 hours before the Lebanese president's term will expire, no one has been chosen to replace him.

Emile Lahoud's presidential term is set to end Friday at midnight (5 p.m. ET).

Parliament was scheduled to meet Friday to try for a fifth time to elect a president, but there were indications that the session would be canceled.

Pro- and anti-Syrian lawmakers had come to no agreement over a compromise candidate to replace the pro-Syrian Lahoud.

The Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition has suggested it might form a rival government.

Failure to settle on a candidate could lead to a power vacuum -- or worse. The army and other security forces were on full alert as the nation braced itself for possible violence.

The country's recent history includes near-constant factional fighting, political maneuvering and friction with Syria.

The election has been overshadowed by assassinations and attempted assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians.

In February 2005, the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut sparked widespread protests that led to the ouster of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

U.N. investigators concluded last year that Hariri's death may be linked to high-ranking Syrian officials. Syria has denied any involvement in the killings and said the U.N. tribunal investigating Hariri's death is a violation of its sovereignty.

In the past two years, four members of the Lebanese parliament have been assassinated. Watch how Lebanon got into this bind »

Meanwhile, members of the Western-backed parliamentary majority were holed up Thursday inside a Beirut hotel meeting in emergency session.

A general who is a powerful Christian leader, backed by Syria and allied with Hezbollah, appeared Thursday on television offering himself as a compromise candidate.

But his offer was rejected by the Western-backed majority led by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated prime minister.

For the past few weeks, top-level mediators from France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries have been trying unsuccessfully to break the deadlock.

Some analysts suggested the president could name an interim military governor and House Speaker Nabih Berri hinted that he might postpone elections.


The foreign ministers of France, Italy and Spain issued a statement saying they have tried everything, and it is now up to the Lebanese to craft a solution.

Lebanese presidents are elected by the National Assembly for a six-year term and may not serve consecutive terms, according to the CIA Factbook. Lahoud was elected in 1998, the reference book says, and in 2004 the National Assembly voted to extend his six-year term by three years.

Source: CNN

[ecce homo]

Présidentielle : le vendredi décisif
Article publié le 22/11/2007 Dernière mise à jour le 22/11/2007 à 22:14 TU

http://www.rfi.fr/actufr/articles/095/article_59379.asp

Le pays aura-t-il un nouveau président vendredi, élu par le Parlement? La tendance est plutôt au pessimisme, même si les tractations se sont poursuivies jeudi soir entre députés de la majorité et de l'opposition pour se mettre d'accord sur un nom. Le général Aoun a fait une proposition face à ce blocage persistant. Pilier de l'opposition, il a proposé que son camp nomme un candidat intérimaire à la présidence et que la majorité anti-syrienne nomme le futur Premier ministre. Proposition refusée mais les députés doivent tous se rendre au Parlement ce vendredi.

Avec notre correspondant à Beyrouth, Paul Khalifeh

C'est un face-à-face à haut risque, qui se prépare, ce vendredi, au Parlement, entre les députés de la majorité et ceux de l'opposition. La séance de l'élection présidentielle n'a finalement pas été reportée, malgré l'absence d'un accord entre les deux camps adverses sur un candidat consensuel.

Réuni en assises élargies jeudi soir, le Mouvement du 14 mars qui regroupe les députés de la majorité, a décidé de se rendre à la Chambre pour élire un président.

Le chef du législatif Nabih Berri et les parlementaires de l'opposition s'y rendront aussi, mais ils ne rentreront pas dans l'hémicycle pour ne pas assurer le quorum des deux-tiers.

Trois options sont envisageables. Le Mouvement du 14 mars met sa menace à exécution et élit un président à la majorité simple, sans le consentement de l'opposition. Ce scénario-catastrophe pourrait plonger le Liban dans une guerre civile qui commencerait à l'intérieur même du Parlement.

Deuxième possibilité : un accord de dernière minute intervient entre les deux parties et un président consensuel est élu. Trop beau pour être vrai. La majorité a en effet rejeté l'initiative avancée jeudi soir par le général Michel Aoun. Le chef chrétien de l'opposition a proposé de renoncer à sa candidature en faveur d'un candidat qu'il choisirait lui-même et qui s'engagerait à démissionner dans deux ans.

Le troisième scénario est le plus probable: Nabih Berri constate le défaut de quorum, lève la séance et fixe un autre rendez-vous vers la fin du mois. D'ici là, le Liban sera entré dans une phase unique de son histoire, celle d'une République sans président.

Un peu plus tôt, une proposition avortée


A défaut d'être roi, Michel Aoun accepte d'être faiseur de roi. Le chef chrétien de l'opposition a proposé un partage du pouvoir entre les deux camps adverses. Il renonce à sa candidature à la présidence, mais se réserve le droit de choisir le prochain chef de l'Etat, en dehors de son bloc parlementaire et de son parti.

Le mandat de ce président s'achèvera au lendemain des prochaines élections législatives prévues au printemps 2009. Il devra s'engager par ailleurs à respecter le document d'entente signé entre le courant patriotique libre du général Aoun et le Hezbollah.
Ce texte controversé reconnaît la légitimité de la résistance armée du Hezbollah, mais lui fixe un plafond temporel, jusqu'à la libération des fermes de Chebaah.


Dans la proposition de Michel Aoun, le Premier ministre, lui, est choisi par le chef de la majorité parlementaire, Saad Hariri, en dehors des rangs de son parti. Il s'engage alors à soutenir le tribunal international chargé de juger les assassins de Rafik Hariri et à appliquer un cahier des charges assez fourni : l'élaboration d'une nouvelle loi électorale basée sur la petite circonscription, une demande qui répond aux souhaits des chrétiens, nomination des hauts fonctionnaires à égalité entre musulmans et chrétiens, retour de tous les déplacés de la guerre civile.

Pas besoin de lire entre les lignes pour comprendre que cette initiative vise à redonner aux chrétiens un rôle central sur l'échiquier politique libanais.

[Hye4Lebanon]

Lebanon president deadline looms

Lebanese MPs are facing a deadline of midnight to appoint a new president.
However, mediators fear rival camps will fail to reach a deal, plunging the country into a deeper political crisis.

Repeated attempts to elect a new president over the past two months have been scuppered by rivalry between Western-backed and pro-Syrian factions.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who has been trying to broker a solution, said despite complications "a miracle is still possible".

But his Italian counterpart, Massimo D'Alema, was pessimistic on the eve of Friday's deadline.

"Tomorrow, I don't believe there will be an election and this will create difficult conditions," he said.

The French, Italian and Spanish foreign ministers have spent several days in Lebanon, meeting rival groups in an attempt to break the deadlock.

A vote in parliament has been scheduled for 1300 (1100 GMT), 11 hours before current President Emile Lahoud's term expires.

No compromise

The election of a president requires a two-thirds majority, which means that the anti-Syrian ruling bloc - with its slim majority - cannot force its preferred candidate through parliament. A deal with the opposition is therefore required.

The rival factions cannot agree on a compromise candidate, however.

And the opposition has warned it may boycott Friday's session, thus ensuring the quorum will not be reached and any vote will be invalid.

According to Article 62 of the Lebanese constitution, if no candidate is elected before Mr Lahoud's mandate expires, his powers are automatically transferred to the anti-Syrian government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

However, President Lahoud has vowed not to hand over power to Mr Siniora, and said he would name army chief General Michel Suleiman as his provisional successor instead.

Opposition leader Michel Aoun proposed a compromise on Thursday, whereby an interim president would be selected to fill the office until parliamentary elections were held in 2009.

This was dismissed by the ruling majority, however, which said the plan was unconstitutional.

The political deadlock has already led to the vote being postponed four times since 25 September.

The BBC's Kim Ghattas in Beirut says the failure to find a compromise has raised fears of civil strife, including the possibility that the opposition could create a rival administration, as happened during the civil war.

International efforts

Our correspondent says the issue is turning into a regional and international affair.

The US, Russia, Syria and Iran are all intensely involved and there has been a lot of diplomatic shuttling between Damascus, Moscow, Tehran and Paris.


US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned several of the country's top leaders on Monday.

Fears are growing that failure to elect a president will bring more turmoil to Lebanon.

The army has increased its presence on the streets of Beirut and set up checkpoints, some schools have cancelled classes until Monday, and the ministry of interior has suspended all firearm permits until further notice


LEADING CANDIDATES

Nassib Lahoud: Government candidate. Former US ambassador. Leading industrialist
Michel Aoun: Opposition candidate. Former army commander who fought Syria during civil war. Returned from exile in 2005. Vocal opponent of government
Michel Suleiman: Army commander since 1998. Electing him requires constitutional amendment
Riad Salameh: Central bank governor since 1993. Widely respected at home and abroad. Election requires constitutional amendment
Boutrous Harb: Pro-government candidate. MP and former minister
Jean Obeid: Possible consensus candidate. Foreign minister 2003-2004

Source: BBC

[the_hitman_9]

Originally Posted by Hye4Lebanon

Lebanon's inability to pick a president could bring chaos

BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Less than 24 hours before the Lebanese president's term will expire, no one has been chosen to replace him.

Emile Lahoud's presidential term is set to end Friday at midnight (5 p.m. ET).

Parliament was scheduled to meet Friday to try for a fifth time to elect a president, but there were indications that the session would be canceled.

Pro- and anti-Syrian lawmakers had come to no agreement over a compromise candidate to replace the pro-Syrian Lahoud.

The Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition has suggested it might form a rival government.

Failure to settle on a candidate could lead to a power vacuum -- or worse. The army and other security forces were on full alert as the nation braced itself for possible violence.

The country's recent history includes near-constant factional fighting, political maneuvering and friction with Syria.

The election has been overshadowed by assassinations and attempted assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians.

In February 2005, the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut sparked widespread protests that led to the ouster of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

U.N. investigators concluded last year that Hariri's death may be linked to high-ranking Syrian officials. Syria has denied any involvement in the killings and said the U.N. tribunal investigating Hariri's death is a violation of its sovereignty.

In the past two years, four members of the Lebanese parliament have been assassinated. Watch how Lebanon got into this bind »

Meanwhile, members of the Western-backed parliamentary majority were holed up Thursday inside a Beirut hotel meeting in emergency session.

A general who is a powerful Christian leader, backed by Syria and allied with Hezbollah, appeared Thursday on television offering himself as a compromise candidate.

But his offer was rejected by the Western-backed majority led by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated prime minister.

For the past few weeks, top-level mediators from France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries have been trying unsuccessfully to break the deadlock.

Some analysts suggested the president could name an interim military governor and House Speaker Nabih Berri hinted that he might postpone elections.


The foreign ministers of France, Italy and Spain issued a statement saying they have tried everything, and it is now up to the Lebanese to craft a solution.

Lebanese presidents are elected by the National Assembly for a six-year term and may not serve consecutive terms, according to the CIA Factbook. Lahoud was elected in 1998, the reference book says, and in 2004 the National Assembly voted to extend his six-year term by three years.

Source: CNN

Can someone explain to me how he offered himself as a compromise candidate ? yellow journalism at its best.

[Hye4Lebanon]

Lebanon opposition to skip president election Friday

By Haaretz Service and The Associated Press

Lebanon's Hezbollah-led opposition will boycott a parliament session on Friday to elect a new head of state in the absence of a deal with the majority on a consensus candidate, a senior opposition source said.

The boycott means parliament will lack the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a successor to President Emile Lahoud, whose term expires at midnight on Friday. The anti-Syrian ruling coalition, which holds a small majority in parliament, said earlier that it would attend the session.

"We will go to parliament to affirm the constitutional right of electing a president for the republic as a parliamentary majority and to preserve the constitution and [state] institutions that are subjected to extensive breaches," lawmaker Wael Abu Faour told Reuters.

The leader of Lebanon's Free Shiite movement on Thursday accused Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of trying to foment Sunni-Shiite violence in the country, Army Radio reported, as rival Lebanese leaders were in last-ditch efforts to find a compromise candidate for the presidency ahead of Friday's constitutional deadline.

"It appears that Nasrallah wants to drag the Shiite [population] of the country into a violent confrontation by force," said Mohammed al-Haj Hassan. "The Shiites, headed by Nasrallah, are leading [the country] to a Shiite-Sunni struggle just like in Iraq, at the generosity of Iranian assistance."

Parliament is scheduled to convene at 1 P.M. Friday to pick a successor for pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud - only 11 hours before his term ends. Three previous attempts failed because of disagreements between the country's feuding pro- and anti-Syrian politicians over a replacement.

Lebanon's Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun proposed on Thursday the election of an interim president named by him as a way out of the country's political deadlock.

Failure to elect a new president on time could lead to a power vacuum, or two rival governments, much like during the last two years of the 1975-90 civil war.

As the country marked its Independence Day holiday Thursday, a mood of pessimism settled over Lebanese as efforts to find some sort of agreement appeared to evaporate.

"The last day before zero-hour: A miracle or power vacuum," read the headline of Lebanon's leading An-Nahar daily.

Al-Mustaqbal daily, owned by legislator Sa'ad Hariri who heads the anti-Syrian majority in parliament, accused Syria of blocking a compromise through its Lebanese allies.

Hariri and Aoun, who is allied with the pro-Syrian Shiite Muslim Hezbollah and is himself seeking the presidential post, held a rare meeting Wednesday night but failed to break the deadlock.

The meeting took place following a telephone call to both leaders by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been leading mediations between the two camps through his foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner.

With only few hours left, international mediators were returning to Lebanon for last minute efforts to find a compromise. Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos arrived overnight and Massimo D'Alema of Italy was arriving later Thursday to join Kouchner, who has been in Lebanon since Monday.

The three European countries are the top contributors to the 13,600-strong United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon.

The controversial Aoun has kept his name in contention for the presidency as other names touted as compromises have been blocked over recent days. Michel Edde, a former culture and information minister, appeared at one point to be gaining traction but has been reportedly rejected by Hariri's camp as too pro-Syrian. A one-time Hariri ally who has recently taken a more neutral stance, Robert Ghanem, has been rejected by the opposition.

Accepting Aoun as president would be a hard pill to swallow for the Hariri camp. Though he was long an opponent of Damascus, Aoun has sided with Hezbollah, an ally of Syria and Tehran, throughout Lebanon's political crisis the past year.

The choice of president has been deadlocked amid a power struggle between the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and the opposition, led by Hezbollah, an ally of Syria and Iran.

Siniora's camp wants to put an anti-Syrian figure in the post to replace Lahoud, a staunch ally of Damascus. Siniora's supporters have a slim majority in parliament, but the opposition has called a boycott of sessions until an acceptable candidate is agreed on. Amid the boycott, a September 25 parliament session failed to muster quorum and three other scheduled sessions have been postponed with no deal reached.

The anti-Syrian majority is threatening to elect a president by a simple majority if no quorum is reached, a move that would likely create turmoil and increase the risk of street violence.

In the absence of a president, the government takes executive power. But Lahoud has vowed not to hand his authorities over to Saniora's administration, considering it unconstitutional after all five ministers of the Shiite Muslim community quit a year ago.

Possible scenarios include Lahoud handing over power to the military chiefs, creating a rival government to hand power to or even declaring a state of emergency - deepening the struggle with Siniora

Source: Haaretz