Winners & losers

[Red Phoenix]

patriots lost the chance to change

feudals won by keeping the old master/servant system

how why where when is irrelevant

there is as much point arguing with the other side as in deciphering the voynich manuscript.

especially LFers, these creatures should have remained stuck in voltaire’s world going around doing bright politics through witch hunts and burnings.

they are still nagging with delusions even now, god bless

but the win of Saad if unrestrained by a deal with HA is the last nail in this lebanese coffin.

[>Watani<]

Originally Posted by sev

Losers Tashnag, Skaff and Fpm.
FPM didnt get 35 seats. Skaff lost zahle forever, and tashnag lost beirut...

Winners Hariri for getting majority.

The results are out, with the loyalists winning 71 seats (including 3 independents) and the opposition lead by General Michel Aoun winning 57 seats.

Despite the loyalists winning the elections, a major point that has gone unnoticed is the huge success of General Michel Aoun in these elections. The election results once again proved that General Michel Aoun is the undisputed Christian leader of Lebanon. The Change & Reform (C&R) block headed by Aoun won the Christian vote in 8/11 Christian-majority regions as follows:
- Zgharta
- Jbeil
- Keserwen
- Maten
- Baabda
- Jezzine
- Zahle (Sunni vote ensured that loyalist list won in Zahle)
- Koura (Sunni vote ensured that loyalist list won in Koura)

The only 3 Christian-majority regions where C&R lost in the Christian street were Batroun, Bsharre and Ashrafiyye (extremely close).

Aoun also won the Christian vote in other qadas with a sizeable Christian minority, such as Chouf, Aley, Akkar and Western Bekaa/Rashayya.

What does this all this amount to in terms of block sizes?
- Aoun's block = 27 seats (includes 20 seats for Free Patriotic Movement)
- Owwet = 5 seats
- Kataeb = 5 seats
- Ahrar = 1 seat
- Ketle Wataniyye = 0 seats
- Former Qornet Shehwen = 1 seat (Butrous Harb)
- Independents + President = 1 seat (Michel Murr)
- Independent March 14 = 1 seat (Nayla Tueni)

This is 20 seats won by just the FPM (excludes 7 Christian allies) compared to a combined number of 14 seats won by every loyalist Christian grouping in the country.

These numbers cannot be disputed with. Following these elections, Aoun has actually extended his bloc size from 21 to 27 seats and is once again the undisputed Christian leader of Lebanon.

And for those who can't work out why Aoun did extremely well in the Christian street and yet the opposition lost the elections, the answer lies in the election law. In the Sunni- and Druze-majority areas (streets that are polarised for loyalists), the results were:

Western Bekaa/Rashayya: 6 loyalists
Akkar: 7 loyalists
Tripoli: 8 loyalists
Minye/Denniyye: 3 loyalists
Beirut III: 10 loyalists
Beirut II: 2 loyalists
Aley: 4 loyalists
Chouf: 8 loyalists
Sidon: 2 loyalists
Total loyalists = 50 seats

In the Shiite-majority areas, (streets that are polarised for opposition) the results were:
Baalback/Hermel: 10 opposition
Marjeyoun Hasbayya: 5 opposition
Tyre: 4 opposition
Bent Jbeil: 3 opposition
Nabatiyye: 3 opposition
Zahrani: 3 opposition
Beirut II: 2 opposition
Aley: 1 opposition
Total opposition = 31 seats

This meant that Aoun needed to win 33/47 seats (70%) in the Christian-majority regions to reach the 64 seats required for the opposition to win half of parliament, while the Christian loyalists needed to win just 14/47 seats (30%) to reach 64 seats. However, Zahle experienced a remarkable increase of Sunni votes from 2005-2009, giving it a total of 27,000 votes compared to just 15,000 Shiite votes. This gave the Christian loyalists a 12,000 vote advantage before the distribution of the Christian vote and made it impossible for Aoun's list to win in Zahle, unlike in 2005, when the numbers of Sunni voters were much much lower. With Zahle guaranteed for the loyalists, this left Aoun with just 40 seats to contest of which he needed to win 33 (83%). So Aoun had a mammoth task and it is obvious that the 1960 Qada Election Law greatly favoured the loyalists. Of these 40 seats, Aoun and his allies managed to win the following:
Jbeil: 3 seats
Keserwen: 5 seats
Maten: 6 seats out of 8
Baabda: 6 seats
Zgharta: 3 seats
Jezzine: 3 seats
Total seats won by C&R in Christian-majority regions = 26 seats. Although the Shiite votes in Jbeil and Baabda were in Aoun's favour, so was the Christian vote.

So Aoun needed another 7 seats of the remaining 12. Bsharre (2 seats) is a Lebanese Forces stronghold and so Aoun needed 7 of the remaining 10 seats. In Koura (3 seats), Aoun managed to win the Christian vote, but like Zahle, the Sunni vote ensured Aoun's loss in this electorate. Now 7 needed from 7 seats. In Batroun (2 seats), Aoun truly lost the Christian vote and it was very close in Ashrafiyye with a 5-0 win for the loyalists.

So using this bad election law and against all odds (once again FPM is extremely disadvantaged by the election law), the political money, the lies, the buying of thousands of votes, blackmailing and threatening people, cheating, having the president and the Batrak against us and the scare tactics and propoganda of Hezbollah and Wileyet Al Fakih, the tayyar list managed to win the Christian vote in 8/11 Christian-majority regions and increased its block by 6 seats from 21 to 27 seats. This is amazing given that the Lebanese Forces won 6 seats in 2005 and just 5 seats in 2009.

Michel Aoun, the uncontested christian leader

[agnostic]

Originally Posted by >Watani<

Michel Aoun, the uncontested christian leader

And what does it represent in the balance of power ? IMHO, it has no weight in itself.

if we have to talk sectarian, Lebanese Christians are very weak, specially after Christian districts who hold the key of the one who was going to form the new government preferred the Saudi wahhabi Saad bin Abih to Aoun. So to obtain the share he is demanding, the uncontested Christian leader, Michel Aoun, has no choice but to rely on HA support.

PS: some here say that FPM is extremely disadvantaged by the election law. If so, why did FPM insist for having it? Wasn't it an FPM slogan that FPM rajja3 el 72u2 la S7abo with this sectarian election law?

[sanfour]

Originally Posted by >watani<

the results are out, with the loyalists winning 71 seats (including 3 independents) and the opposition lead by general michel aoun winning 57 seats.

Despite the loyalists winning the elections, a major point that has gone unnoticed is the huge success of general michel aoun in these elections. The election results once again proved that general michel aoun is the undisputed christian leader of lebanon. The change & reform (c&r) block headed by aoun won the christian vote in 8/11 christian-majority regions as follows:
- zgharta
- jbeil
- keserwen
- maten
- baabda
- jezzine
- zahle (sunni vote ensured that loyalist list won in zahle)
- koura (sunni vote ensured that loyalist list won in koura)

the only 3 christian-majority regions where c&r lost in the christian street were batroun, bsharre and ashrafiyye (extremely close).

Aoun also won the christian vote in other qadas with a sizeable christian minority, such as chouf, aley, akkar and western bekaa/rashayya.

What does this all this amount to in terms of block sizes?
- aoun's block = 27 seats (includes 20 seats for free patriotic movement)
- owwet = 5 seats
- kataeb = 5 seats
- ahrar = 1 seat
- ketle wataniyye = 0 seats
- former qornet shehwen = 1 seat (butrous harb)
- independents + president = 1 seat (michel murr)
- independent march 14 = 1 seat (nayla tueni)

this is 20 seats won by just the fpm (excludes 7 christian allies) compared to a combined number of 14 seats won by every loyalist christian grouping in the country.

These numbers cannot be disputed with. Following these elections, aoun has actually extended his bloc size from 21 to 27 seats and is once again the undisputed christian leader of lebanon.

And for those who can't work out why aoun did extremely well in the christian street and yet the opposition lost the elections, the answer lies in the election law. In the sunni- and druze-majority areas (streets that are polarised for loyalists), the results were:

Western bekaa/rashayya: 6 loyalists
akkar: 7 loyalists
tripoli: 8 loyalists
minye/denniyye: 3 loyalists
beirut iii: 10 loyalists
beirut ii: 2 loyalists
aley: 4 loyalists
chouf: 8 loyalists
sidon: 2 loyalists
total loyalists = 50 seats

in the shiite-majority areas, (streets that are polarised for opposition) the results were:
Baalback/hermel: 10 opposition
marjeyoun hasbayya: 5 opposition
tyre: 4 opposition
bent jbeil: 3 opposition
nabatiyye: 3 opposition
zahrani: 3 opposition
beirut ii: 2 opposition
aley: 1 opposition
total opposition = 31 seats

this meant that aoun needed to win 33/47 seats (70%) in the christian-majority regions to reach the 64 seats required for the opposition to win half of parliament, while the christian loyalists needed to win just 14/47 seats (30%) to reach 64 seats. However, zahle experienced a remarkable increase of sunni votes from 2005-2009, giving it a total of 27,000 votes compared to just 15,000 shiite votes. This gave the christian loyalists a 12,000 vote advantage before the distribution of the christian vote and made it impossible for aoun's list to win in zahle, unlike in 2005, when the numbers of sunni voters were much much lower. With zahle guaranteed for the loyalists, this left aoun with just 40 seats to contest of which he needed to win 33 (83%). So aoun had a mammoth task and it is obvious that the 1960 qada election law greatly favoured the loyalists. Of these 40 seats, aoun and his allies managed to win the following:
Jbeil: 3 seats
keserwen: 5 seats
maten: 6 seats out of 8
baabda: 6 seats
zgharta: 3 seats
jezzine: 3 seats
total seats won by c&r in christian-majority regions = 26 seats. Although the shiite votes in jbeil and baabda were in aoun's favour, so was the christian vote.

So aoun needed another 7 seats of the remaining 12. Bsharre (2 seats) is a lebanese forces stronghold and so aoun needed 7 of the remaining 10 seats. In koura (3 seats), aoun managed to win the christian vote, but like zahle, the sunni vote ensured aoun's loss in this electorate. Now 7 needed from 7 seats. In batroun (2 seats), aoun truly lost the christian vote and it was very close in ashrafiyye with a 5-0 win for the loyalists.

So using this bad election law and against all odds (once again fpm is extremely disadvantaged by the election law), the political money, the lies, the buying of thousands of votes, blackmailing and threatening people, cheating, having the president and the batrak against us and the scare tactics and propoganda of hezbollah and wileyet al fakih, the tayyar list managed to win the christian vote in 8/11 christian-majority regions and increased its block by 6 seats from 21 to 27 seats. This is amazing given that the lebanese forces won 6 seats in 2005 and just 5 seats in 2009.

Michel aoun, the uncontested christian leader

بعد في طائفية أكتر من هيك؟ الله يقويكن ياشباب والعدرا تحرسكن وتحرس الجنرال الزعيم المسيحي الأوحد
والباقي كلهن محمودات ما تعتلو همن
هلق هودي المسيحية يللي إنتخبوا التيار باب أول أو باب تاني؟
اهم شي النوعية مش الكمية

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by sanfour

بعد في طائفية أكتر من هيك؟ الله يقويكن ياشباب والعدرا تحرسكن وتحرس الجنرال الزعيم المسيحي الأوحد
والباقي كلهن محمودات ما تعتلو همن
هلق هودي المسيحية يللي إنتخبوا التيار باب أول أو باب تاني؟
اهم شي النوعية مش الكمية

you know sarcasam will not benefit you, especially in lebanon.

you guys think you are living in switzerland , while the truth is we are part and parcel of a hodpodge of sects , put together in a country called LEBANON,situated on a major ethnic, sectarian fault line called MIDDLE EAST.

the earlier you realize that the better for you.
and yes , the people who voted for FPM and allies are by far the majority of the christians and yes they are bab awaal ( at least morally).
these were people who stood up to the

1-lies
2-bribes
3-money
4-western powers
5-scare mongering
6-racism

WE ARE PROUD OF EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.GOD BLESS THEM ALL.

[sanfour]

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

you know sarcasam will not benefit you, especially in lebanon.

you guys think you are living in switzerland , while the truth is we are part and parcel of a hodpodge of sects , put together in a country called LEBANON,situated on a major ethnic, sectarian fault line called MIDDLE EAST.

the earlier you realize that the better for you.
and yes , the people who voted for FPM and allies are by far the majority of the christians and yes they are bab awaal ( at least morally).
these were people who stood up to the

1-lies
2-bribes
3-money
4-western powers
5-scare mongering
6-racism

WE ARE PROUD OF EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.GOD BLESS THEM ALL.

the FPM's battleground is Lebanon, this is what i used to know
about FPM (or may be thought that i know).
now, with all this sectarian talk and counter-talk, FPM is being dragged
to a battleground which is not its own. keep up the arrogance and
sectarianism and next elections you will look for the 50% but won't find it.

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by sanfour

the FPM's battleground is Lebanon, this is what i used to know
about FPM (or may be thought that i know).
now, with all this sectarian talk and counter-talk, FPM is being dragged
to a battleground which is not its own. keep up the arrogance and
sectarianism and next elections you will look for the 50% but won't find it.

you are a dreamer , i am a realist.

good luck in lebanon.

[sanfour]

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

you are a dreamer , i am a realist.

good luck in lebanon.

yeah right, i used to dream that the syrians will be out of Lebanon
while some realists were telling me "you are dreaming, the syrian
occupation is necessary, legitimate and temporary."

[hannaalsayssa]

after winners and losers, we have another important category.
the politicians who can not recuperate from their loss or ousting.

1- mm & son: after 40 years riding on the back wave of syria, diff presidents, and the Armenians..the survivalist f maten might have used all his political lives.
he has cut his ties to many politicians and have to hitch a ride on the kataeb wave ( if they allow him that is)

2-karami: i guess another family bites the dust, althoughhe got some votes but time is against him.

3-elie skaff: sadly i can not see how can ne ever overcome such a huge sunni voters deficit..unless the electoral law in nessbiyye.

4-saad family in saida:they got 30% but can they even get that % in 2013..i doubt.

5-fares sou3eid, bonn,etc...: as long as FPM is strong these people have no chance what so ever.

6- berri: not only he lost few MPs, but he is at the whims of wello, FPM,others in re electing him as speaker.even if elected he has lost his shine.also his fight with us in jezzine was uncalled for.

7-so called independents, wassatiyye, ect....they all ran and got dismal numbers. this election saw the rise of sect based parties and money driven ideologies.like ( fan,pierre dakash,jama3a islamiyye, yakan, taw7eed, etc...).

PS: their only hope is the nessbiyye law, maybe some can manage to reclaim his/her mandate.MAYBE?.

[G_Gibreel]

Originally Posted by ElieCedar

FACTS:

The majority remains a majority by the will of the majority of the people.

Districts lost by the majority were lost with a much smaller margin than districts lost by the opposition.

The majority came within 1000 votes in penetrating the Zogharta and Keserwen lists, and within 2000 votes in additional penetration (no pun intended) in Metn. If this trend continues, and it will naturally, we will sweep all of Mount Lebanon and the North in 2013.

FPMers lost their claim to the Christian majority according to many independent and biased sources :-)
Elie

Is this supposed to be a serious statement? This was first past the post. The opposition won the majority of eligible voters.