Winners & losers

[elador]

Originally Posted by Ana3arabi!

Jumblatt will not shift sides. He is maneuvring through his public statements in order to boost his bargaining position in M14. Hariri knows he can't do anything without him, & his statements may be an implicit threat to him not to sideline him and boost the Christian M14 ppl.

he has never done it before?

[Ana3arabi!]

Originally Posted by elador

he has never done it before?

sure, he has. but not when he does not have to... :) he does not hve to shift sides to get what he wants. he is in a strong position, even having lost 5 (or is it 8?) MPs in his liqaa' dimoqrati bloc...

[sanfour]

objectively, The biggest loser is Change and Reform...not in the number
of seats but politically.

[Ana3arabi!]

if the muwalet were smart, they would've tried to win over a druze party from the mu3arada to their side (not saying it would've worked, but they could'v tried ) in order to minimize the size of Jumblatt's bloc... this way he would be just like M14 Christians, threat of a walkout by 1 of them would not threaten the entire majority... whereas now, it could give the mu3arada majority if jumblatt leaves... but not if kataeb or ouwwet leaves..

[BEAST]

Originally Posted by elador

if jumblat shifts sides the majority becomes minority and vice versa

Originally Posted by Ana3arabi!

Jumblatt will not shift sides. He is maneuvring through his public statements in order to boost his bargaining position in M14. Hariri knows he can't do anything without him, & his statements may be an implicit threat to him not to sideline him and boost the Christian M14 ppl.

Originally Posted by sanfour

he doesn't have to switch sides, if they don't do what he wants
he can sit in the middle then he will get whatever he wants.

Originally Posted by elador

he has never done it before?

Joumblat cannot wash his hands of SH and risk losing the 36 000 or so Sunni voters in chouf or aley (can't remember which)...


as for the thread's topic, i say the biggest loser is the Lebanese people...pity the nation...and I sincerely hope the FPM won't turn out to be the biggest loser...the whole elections and post-elections phase reek with implicit deals...

[Ignatius]

Kataeb, if they can stay united, can be among the winners
Samy Gemayel created the image that was missing
But I guess in a few months Nadim will not be able to handle the fact that his cousin is more intelligent and charismatic than himslef
And unfortunately Samy with his "federalist" program cannot stafisfy a standard patriot

As per FPM, many are considering it among the losers but in fact they managed to increase the number of the MPs within the block so I guess it's a relative lost or a relative success (depends whether you're a supporter or not)

[Ana3arabi!]

well, C&R is the 2nd biggest bloc by itself! hariri with all the world's support & a trail of money running all the way from riyadh to here and from washington to here, has only 8 more MPs.. it's a huge achievement for FPM & allies.... even if our expectations were bigger. the whole world was against us and yet we did so well. that should tell us something. this does not mean we did not make mistakes or we should not evaluate our performance critically..

[lebgeneral]

Originally Posted by BEAST

Joumblat cannot wash his hands of SH and risk losing the 36 000 or so Sunni voters in chouf or aley (can't remember which)...


as for the thread's topic, i say the biggest loser is the Lebanese people...pity the nation...and I sincerely hope the FPM won't turn out to be the biggest loser...the whole elections and post-elections phase reek with implicit deals...

You are 100% mistaken for the simple reason: The sunnis of Chouf are more fans of Jomblat, than Hariri... and we saw what happened with Ghattas khoury. He barely managed to get 6500 votes!
And even if hariri had half of these sunnis, Jomblat will still manage to win...

[lebgeneral]

Originally Posted by Ignatius

Kataeb, if they can stay united, can be among the winners
Samy Gemayel created the image that was missing
But I guess in a few months Nadim will not be able to handle the fact that his cousin is more intelligent and charismatic than himslef
And unfortunately Samy with his "federalist" program cannot stafisfy a standard patriot

As per FPM, many are considering it among the losers but in fact they managed to increase the number of the MPs within the block so I guess it's a relative lost or a relative success (depends whether you're a supporter or not)

In my opinion, the most important thing that happened to FPM, is that it now has a young officers group (Simon AbiRamia, Ibrahim Kanaan, Alain Aoun, Ziad Aswad, Nicolas Sehnaoui etc..), that can second, and even replace GMA...
Mark my words, in 2013, FPM won't need GMA anymore to win the elections..

[Alexdagreat]

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

I guess it is about time we breach that subject.
who won and who lost.
my take.

WINNERS:

1-saad and the sunna ( BIGGEST WINNERS OF ALL).
2-jumblatt.
3-Sleiman Beik Frangieh
4-GENERAL ( FPM) but to a lesser degree.5-Syria/ Saudi.
6-Tashnaq ( KING MAKER IN MATEN for the forseable future).

LOSERS:

1-kataeb...the least though
2-boun & co..hardest
3-batrak....
4-mm (jalbout al maten) and his lallousty by extension.( BIGGEST LOSER)



i left out many others because of the peculiarity of their situations (ms, sg, HA,karami,skaff,etc....)

we was the biggest winner we proved we are the biggest christian block