The Wind of Change!

[X]

As of today, I will no longer use the old terms, from "Opposition and Loyalists" to "March 8 and March 14".

I will not talk much about the loyalists, since we already talked a lot about them in other threads, but:

1 - Walid Jomblat and PSP are repositioning (إعادة تموضع), not because they saw the light or realized they were wrong, but simply because Jomblat knows that "March 14" coalition failed and was defeated and has no future ahead as a coalition.

2 - Saad Hariri is also repositioning, not the same way as Jumblat, he is still hoping and working for the current "March 14" to win the majority, but he now wants to be the sole leader of the Sunni community, his priority changed, not long ago he was working on expanding the "March 14" Coalition by adding independent Sunni forces to the coalition, now his priority is to eliminate all independent Sunni leaders and forces and make "Future Movement" as the only Sunni force after the elections. In case "March 14" coalition didn't win the majority, the new majority will be forced to work with Hariri and Future Movement simply because there will be no alternatives.

3 - As for the "Christians" in the "March 14" coalition, they are in a lose-lose situation, no matter who wins the elections, at best, they will have a secondary role after the elections (and they have only themselves to blame), they were relying on GMA and FPM loosing popularity, actually they were sure of it and they were thinking that it is just a matter of time and they spent the last few years waiting for the 2009 elections to replace FPM, now they are smelling the coffee, but it is too late for them.

4 - The Maronite Church, unfortunately, Sfeir and the Church were used by the "March 14" coalition against their war on FPM, now that "March 14" is collapsing, the Church's role will be reduced dramatically (not by FPM or by the future majority) comparing to the last 20 years.

5 - President Michel Suleiman, I understand his position, and if i was in his place, i will do the same, he is the "Christian" President, but in term of strength and popularity, he is way behind GMA, and he knows that those who are with him are in fact "not with him" but "are against GMA", his situation is somehow similar to Sfeir's situation in the last 2-3 years, he knows that the "Anti GMA" want him to face GMA since they can't do it, and he knows that in case he lost, he will lose and those who pushed him for a battle will not lose much (they don't have much to lose in the first place), and in case he won, he will not win anything, those who are pushing him now for a battle with GMA will come and grab the prize.

6 - Suleiman Franjieh, unlike many FPMers, i wasn't expecting much from him, he will win the 3 seats in Zghorta, and will be the leader of Zghorta, but he lost the chance to expand outside Zghorta, he made a huge mistake when he closed his list and announced it like that, he could have easily acted differently and won the hearth of many, but maybe he isn't interested in becoming a national leader, maybe he just want to be the leader of Zghorta. He will realize after the elections that he made a strategic mistake.

7 - Nabih Berri, not any better than Hariri or Jomblat, in fact, he might be worst than them, at least Hariri and Jomblat are being honest, he worked against GMA in the presidency since day 1, in syndicate elections, he went as far as helping the "March 14" coalition in defeating FPM in many syndicates, inside those syndicates and when it comes to appointments, Amal have been "nezlin tkhewo2" in FPM since 2005. Michel Murr has publicly and repeatedly said he is Berri's ally and been attacking GMA and FPM heavily while Berri didn't even publicly condemn it, he is in fact behind Murr in what Murr is doing.

8 - Tashnag, I still think that they are just maneuvering, they should realize that they lost everything when they were "neutrals", and only gained back because they took sides, they will lose everything back in case they went back to being "neutrals", I am not talking about being "Independent", on the contrary, i encourage them to be "Independent" and i encourage them to have their own "independence", but when it comes to national interests and politics, they can not survive without strong allies and without being part of the game instead of being the spectators. If "March 14" coalition won the majority, i advise Tashnag to go ally with them, go look after the interest of the community you represent.

Don't you think for a moment that you are doing FPM any favors in Maten or Zahle or Beirut 1, if FPM lost the elections, in 2013 there will be 6 "Richard Kouyoumjian"s.

9 - Hezbollah, apart from FPM, they are the only party seeking change, Hezbollah is the only ally that i raise my head up with, today my admiration and respect to Hezbollah is higher than anytime before, they are the only people not running after getting their own piece of the cake, my only remark on Hezbollah is "it's time to start cleaning the house"

10 - FPM, it amazes me and actually it shocks me seeing how FPMers have no faith in themselves, today FPM is at least 50 times more stronger than 2005, FPMers spend too much time worrying about numbers and popularity, in the US elections last year, everybody knew that the Democrats will win, they won and it was somehow an easy victory, but they didn't get 70% of the votes, not even 60% of the votes, forget about the "Tsunami" or the "70%" w medre shou, the only thing that matters is the number of MPs FPM will get and the number of MPs the C&R bloc will get.

The priority is not winning the majority, since there won't be anything called "March 14" coalition after the elections, the current opposition will get the majority, but that is not important, and that is not our goal.

Having 31 FPM MPs is much better than having 30 FPM MPs, we must have the biggest bloc we can possibly have, some of those who are currently in the opposition will do their best to prevent FPM from achieving the change, so they can keep their piece of the cake.

Stop worrying or even thinking about our allies, most of our electoral allies need us much more than we need them, and not just for the elections.

The wind of change is coming, but it is not going to be an easy ride, in the next government there will be lot more "Jubran Bassils" but there will also be "Fouad Sanyouras" and "Walid Jomblats" and "Nebih Berris".

The more MPs we get, the more "Jubran Bassils" we will get in the government.

Forget about the allies, the wind of change is coming, and those who stand in the way (allies or opponenets) the wind will blow them away.

FPMers, do not fear anyone, they are all fearing FPM, and they are **** right to fear us, the change is coming and they know it and they can't do anything about it, it's not going to be 100% change, we still have 2 months to go, and 60% change is much better than 55% change.

We told them in 1990 "mnekol trab w ma mnerka3", w ma erke3na.

We've been running for so long, and the race is almost over, all we have to do is make sure we pass the finish line, we are leading the race and the only way we won't finish first is if we trip and fall, all we have to do is run the last 100 meters and we will be victorious.

You are FPMer? if yes, erfa3 rasak w khalih marfou3.

I don't want to read any more posts by FPMers containing doubts or fears or worries, have faith in yourself, have faith in your leadership and have faith in your party.

We didn't even play 10% of our cards yet while our opponents played all their cards and all their cards are burning out.

We are cruising to victory, and i promise you that the victory will be bigger than what you are wishing.

[Allah wo Berri]

Originally Posted by X

7 - Nabih Berri, not any better than Hariri or Jomblat, in fact, he might be worst than them, at least Hariri and Jomblat are being honest, he worked against GMA in the presidency since day 1, in syndicate elections, he went as far as helping the "March 14" coalition in defeating FPM in many syndicates, inside those syndicates and when it comes to appointments, Amal have been "nezlin tkhewo2" in FPM since 2005. Michel Murr has publicly and repeatedly said he is Berri's ally and been attacking GMA and FPM heavily while Berri didn't even publicly condemn it, he is in fact behind Murr in what Murr is doing.

and what about Do7a? wasnt he who fully backed up GMA proposal of electoral law " qada2" all of this which he did in favor for the christians in LEB and GMA was nothing ? and keep in mind that Ra2ees Berri knew that he will lose seats if he accepted this law but still can you answer me y he did it? and please dont tell me because HA forced him to do that cause if you say so then you know nothing about HA and Amal .

for Murr issue wat does AL Ra2ees have to do with that? does he have to go publicly and condemn wat he said? and how do comment on wat he said " ana wo haleef haleefe 3a ras al sate7"?

[X]

Originally Posted by Allah wo Berri

and what about Do7a? wasnt he who fully backed up GMA proposal of electoral law " qada2" all of this which he did in favor for the christians in LEB and GMA was nothing ? and keep in mind that Ra2ees Berri knew that he will lose seats if he accepted this law but still can you answer me y he did it? and please dont tell me because HA forced him to do that cause if you say so then you know nothing about HA and Amal .

for Murr issue wat does AL Ra2ees have to do with that? does he have to go publicly and condemn wat he said? and how do comment on wat he said " ana wo haleef haleefe 3a ras al sate7"?

When it comes to the elections law, the 2000 (Kenaan Law) had to go, it was going to be replaced with or without the Doha agreement, but the country was divided in a way that it was impossible to agree on a complete new law, so we had to go back to a ready made law (something we used before), the 1960 law was the only law that was going to be passed.

Berri had to accept it, he didn't have any other choice, simply because there was no other choice, the 2000 law was not a choice and he knew that both sides can not agree on a new law.

So the 1960 law has nothing to do with Berri doing a favor to FPM or Hezbollah forcing him to accept it, he simply had no other choice (same like Hariri who was against it but had no other choice).

As for Berri saying nice words about GMA, we don't need nice words, we need actions.

Remember that i am not talking in the name of FPM, this is my personal opinion, and i disagree with GMA, i lost faith in Berri (unlike GMA), i wish Berri will prove me wrong, but i personally lost faith in him.

[Allah wo Berri]

Originally Posted by X

When it comes to the elections law, the 2000 (Kenaan Law) had to go, it was going to be replaced with or without the Doha agreement, but the country was divided in a way that it was impossible to agree on a complete new law, so we had to go back to a ready made law (something we used before), the 1960 law was the only law that was going to be passed.

Berri had to accept it, he didn't have any other choice, simply because there was no other choice, the 2000 law was not a choice and he knew that both sides can not agree on a new law.

So the 1960 law has nothing to do with Berri doing a favor to FPM or Hezbollah forcing him to accept it, he simply had no other choice (same like Hariri who was against it but had no other choice).

As for Berri saying nice words about GMA, we don't need nice words, we need actions.

Remember that i am not talking in the name of FPM, this is my personal opinion, and i disagree with GMA, i lost faith in Berri (unlike GMA), i wish Berri will prove me wrong, but i personally lost faith in him.

well , you are very wrong my friend. if you think R. Berri is worse than Harrir and Jumblatt and you completely lost faith and that he helps 14 march then wat made him accpt this law couldnt he prposed to go to mu7afaza where GMA will lose and AMAL and HA will win , rite?

and here time is not a factor , we delayed the election for our president for a biig period they could have delayed the agreement to chose another electoral law.

as for actions , wat do you want R berri to do ?

he gave GMA a seat in Jezzeen and he gave him another seat in Baabda and he is negotiating with HA to give him a seat in Beirut 2 instead of the seat given to GMA in baabda so that he doesnt make problems with GMA , isnt that an action ?? in the other hand GMA took a shiite seat in baabda and in keserwen , rite?

or wat actions are you looking for?

[ZakiNassif]

Dear X,

Thanks for the effort taken to address this room. Very nice words, bless you!

I was also glad to read this:
We didn't even play 10% of our cards yet while our opponents played all their cards and all their cards are burning out.

cheers ou 3alehoun ya FPM :)

[CitizenOfTheRepublic]

Originally Posted by X

We've been running for so long, and the race is almost over, all we have to do is make sure we pass the finish line, we are leading the race and the only way we won't finish first is if we trip and fall, all we have to do is run the last 100 meters and we will be victorious.

Well we disagree X, this is far from over, this is just beginning.

To quote Mr. Churchill: "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning".

[X]

Originally Posted by Allah wo Berri

well , you are very wrong my friend. if you think R. Berri is worse than Harrir and Jumblatt and you completely lost faith and that he helps 14 march then wat made him accpt this law couldnt he prposed to go to mu7afaza where GMA will lose and AMAL and HA will win , rite?

and here time is not a factor , we delayed the election for our president for a biig period they could have delayed the agreement to chose another electoral law.

as for actions , wat do you want R berri to do ?

he gave GMA a seat in Jezzeen and he gave him another seat in Baabda and he is negotiating with HA to give him a seat in Beirut 2 instead of the seat given to GMA in baabda so that he doesnt make problems with GMA , isnt that an action ?? in the other hand GMA took a shiite seat in baabda and in keserwen , rite?

or wat actions are you looking for?

Neither Jezine nor Baabda Berri can give a seat to FPM or anyone else, he doesn't have those seats in the first place to give them to anyone.

[Allah wo Berri]

Originally Posted by X

Neither Jezine nor Baabda Berri can give a seat to FPM or anyone else, he doesn't have those seats in the first place to give them to anyone.

i might be wrong for Jezzeen , bas for baabda there are 2 shiite seats there shouldnt the shiites chose there representatives? shouldnt AMAL and HA chose those who represent them ? especially that there are alot of shiites in baabda and they have 2 seats there and maronites have 3 seats. rite!

and stilll you havent replied to me on wat actions you want?

[MindFree]

Originally Posted by X

Neither Jezine nor Baabda Berri can give a seat to FPM or anyone else, he doesn't have those seats in the first place to give them to anyone.

I strongly encourage FPM to go against Samir Azar in Jezzine :)

[Lebanese Forces -Keserwan]

Originally Posted by Allah wo Berri

as for actions , wat do you want R berri to do ?

and he gave him another seat in Baabda and he is negotiating with HA to give him a seat in Beirut 2 instead of the seat given to GMA in baabda so that he doesnt make problems with GMA , isnt that an action ?? in the other hand GMA took a shiite seat in baabda and in keserwen , rite?

With all due respect, Berri's electoral power is nearly inexistent in Baabda for him to "offer" anything to anyone. Furthermore, there is no Amal MP in Baabda who is stepping down to the advantage of an ally. Hence, the whole thing about an Amal sacrifice in Baabda is totally unfounded.

Side note: The other seat you are talking about is in Jbeil (there are only 5 Maronite seats in Kesrouan) -- In Jbeil too, Berri cannot claim any considerable presence to "offer" seats, despite the fact that the current Shia Jbeil MP, Abbas Hachem, has a very good relationship with Nabih Berri.

Regards,