What if Hariri forms a majority government

[Robin Hood]

Originally Posted by J.Hanna

Ooohh okayy, so if we form a governmet, you will attack us because we "may" start May5 all over again? You people are savages.

We wont attack u, but if u start another May 5, ra7 tetra77amo 3a May 7.

[Robin Hood]

Originally Posted by joseph_lubnan

"confessional Groups" and "communal coexistence" relate to the sects. FPM is not the Maronite sect, Hezbollah is not the Shiite sect, Arslan is not the Druze sect, Franjieh is not the Maronite sect and so on...

90% of Shias voted for HA and more than 50% of the Christians voted for GMA, so both of them represent their respective community the same way Hariri and Jumblatt do.

[joe tayyar]

It will be the end of his political life.
Anyway, did it start????

[elias-aj]

Originally Posted by joseph_lubnan

"confessional Groups" and "communal coexistence" relate to the sects. FPM is not the Maronite sect, Hezbollah is not the Shiite sect, Arslan is not the Druze sect, Franjieh is not the Maronite sect and so on...

Agree with that, FPM is not the Maronite sect, Hezbollah is not the Shiite sect etc.

However, how do you define "to be represented in a just and equitable fashion in the formation of the Cabinet" ?

Because just for the record, FPM represents the majority of the Maronites, HA the majority of the Shiites, FM the majority of the Sunnis etc.

In our confessional country, I guess a just and equitable representation would be appointing politicians who have the most important popular support within their own sect - that is if we want to respect some democratic criterion.

Note that I'm not saying or pretending that it's fair or not. It's just how a confessional system like ours works.

As for the question raised in this thread, Hariri can't form a majority government as there is no majority in our Parliament. Just several parliamentary blocks in a pure french IVth Republic style. We just need to learn how to manage such a mess until we understand that we have to reform our political institutions.

[roch10452]

Originally Posted by elias-aj

Agree with that, FPM is not the Maronite sect, Hezbollah is not the Shiite sect etc.

However, how do you define "to be represented in a just and equitable fashion in the formation of the Cabinet" ?

Because just for the record, FPM represents the majority of the Maronites, HA the majority of the Shiites, FM the majority of the Sunnis etc.

In our confessional country, I guess a just and equitable representation would be appointing politicians who have the most important popular support within their own sect - that is if we want to respect some democratic criterion.

Note that I'm not saying or pretending that it's fair or not. It's just how a confessional system like ours works.

As for the question raised in this thread, Hariri can't form a majority government as there is no majority in our Parliament. Just several parliamentary blocks in a pure french IVth Republic style. We just need to learn how to manage such a mess until we understand that we have to reform our political institutions.

I dont agree with you on all this but lets build on

So Aoun represents 27MP's of the Christian share
14March represents the rest (37)
The president is to be given a share out of the 15MP's for the Christians, 3MP's to be exact

We are left with 12 MP's...
Which get us to 6.9 MP's for 14MARCH
and 5MP's for Aoun

[Booyakasha]

Originally Posted by roch10452

I dont agree with you on all this but lets build on

So Aoun represents 27MP's of the Christian share
14March represents the rest (37)
The president is to be given a share out of the 15MP's for the Christians, 3MP's to be exact

We are left with 12 MP's...
Which get us to 6.9 MP's for 14MARCH
and 5MP's for Aoun

All these calculations are meaningless. 14th of March is NOT a bloc. This entails: Loubnan awwalan gets its share. LF gets its share. Kataeb gets its share. etc.

If LF, Kataeb and the Loubnan awwalan christians were to form a bloc ahla w sahla, they'll get what they represent as a bloc. But please spare us the 14th of March unity utopia. Jumblat is out and FM doesn't give a hoot about the degreeless doctor and the gemayels.

It's a game of parliamentary blocks, la christians wala muslims wala ballout. All this sectarian talk is useless. And the president's share you're talking about doesn't change anything since it's proportionally taken out from both sides.

p.s: I think you might be confusing MPs with ministers in your 2nd paragraph

[GeorgeY]

Originally Posted by roch10452

I dont agree with you on all this but lets build on

So Aoun represents 27MP's of the Christian share
14March represents the rest (37)
The president is to be given a share out of the 15MP's for the Christians, 3MP's to be exact

We are left with 12 MP's...
Which get us to 6.9 MP's for 14MARCH
and 5MP's for Aoun

nice analysis but try out this one

27MPs get 5 wouzara
so in the same idea do u know how many 5 MPS get? the answer is 0.9

so 5 for FPM barely one for kataeb and barely one for LF (if u count LF as 8 then they get 1.4) and the rest are for the rest M14, and dont forget za7leh bil 2lib.

i am totally with ur idea

PS: barely one means wizarit dawleh. ma8ek?

[elias-aj]

Originally Posted by roch10452

I dont agree with you on all this but lets build on

Roch, our constitution is subject to many constructions and we need a foreign "arbitrator" to make it properly work - as the constitutional council can't for now work normally or lack of any effective experience.

Add to that a political system which is a mix of confessionalism and democracy...

Originally Posted by roch10452

So Aoun represents 27MP's of the Christian share
14March represents the rest (37)
The president is to be given a share out of the 15MP's for the Christians, 3MP's to be exact

We are left with 12 MP's...
Which get us to 6.9 MP's for 14MARCH
and 5MP's for Aoun

I didn't mean that all the maronite or christians shares were to be given to C&R block.

But given the "spirit" of our political system and the preamble of our constitution, C&R block is supposed to be granted with a number of ministers given the fact that C&R represents the majority of the christians. Well, not exactly if we take into account the MP seats but still, do we take into account the christian MP seats that are part of FM - a sunni political party - share ? Don't we have to compare FPM weight to the other "christian" political parties weight to stick to the "spirit" of our political system ?

I hate this constitution and I hate confessionalism. But as long as we don't change it, we have to stick to it.

As for the distribution of the ministerial porfolios and the choice of the minister, it's all subject to negotiations. And what's happening is just a reflection of the lack of rationalization mechanisms in our constitution.

And anyway, given the exact situation which is no majority, no minority and just MPs blocks, the distribution may differ... Indeed, there is no more 14Th March, 8Th March and FPM.

[Revolution1989]

Originally Posted by roch10452

I dont agree with you on all this but lets build on

So Aoun represents 27MP's of the Christian share
14March represents the rest (37)

So Ass3ad Herdan is now part of March14th? That's why he was holding that meeting with Joumblatt...

Anyway, we're speculating, let's see what happens by Saturday as MM said

[Booyakasha]

Originally Posted by Revolution1989

So Ass3ad Herdan is now part of March14th? That's why he was holding that meeting with Joumblatt...

Anyway, we're speculating, let's see what happens by Saturday as MM said

I wouldn't even trust MM on a date he sets.