War on Gaza - Open discussion

[tae]

Originally Posted by Nonan

I don't want anything and I don't need you to explain to me how dictatorships work... Regardless, Hafez el Assad was always careful to portray himself as the Hero of the Golan eventhough no bullet was fired there since 1974, Mubarak was Mubarak in 1982, 1996, etc. and still it is only recently that he is becoming more transparent, so is the KSA regime, in his support to Israel. I am not saying the population suddenly started hating Iran instead of Israel but look at Lebanon today... Can you tell me with confidence that, if a war was to happen between Iran and Israel, the Sunni street would side with Iran? I don't have any stats to give you but I doubt it deeply.

My personal observation (of course limited and potentially flawed) is that the Persian vs. Arabic Sunnis shift is real and gained importance. I don't know how it will play out but overall but we've seen how it did in Lebanon (where sunnis are siding with long term pro-Israeli LFs and PSP)...

you're talking about sunnis as if all of them support the arab regimes which is wrong.
Egypt is the largest arab country, and Mubarak is the only egyptian sunni out of 80 millions who is against Hamas and HA

[J.Hanna]

ok so its roughly 3weeks later since the fighting began.....Israel declared the start of the war and Israel declared the end of the war.
GaZA is utterly destroyed....infrastructure is all destroyed, most of Hamas' tunnels were destroyed, Hamas was humiliated by Israel - it could barely launch 8 rockets on the last day of the conflict, nothing compared to HA's 400-500 rockets per day.....and Hanniye comes out today and declares a "Great Victory" against the zionists....is this guy serious?

[Danny Z]

Originally Posted by J.Hanna

ok so its roughly 3weeks later since the fighting began.....Israel declared the start of the war and Israel declared the end of the war.
GaZA is utterly destroyed....infrastructure is all destroyed, most of Hamas' tunnels were destroyed, Hamas was humiliated by Israel - it could barely launch 8 rockets on the last day of the conflict, nothing compared to HA's 400-500 rockets per day.....and Hanniye comes out today and declares a "Great Victory" against the zionists....is this guy serious?

What was the objective of the operation and what did it achieve? If it achieved its objectives what a conicidence it did stop a day before Obama became president! If you answer this question maybe you can then answer you own question.

[Zayn]

Originally Posted by J.Hanna

ok so its roughly 3weeks later since the fighting began.....Israel declared the start of the war and Israel declared the end of the war.
GaZA is utterly destroyed....infrastructure is all destroyed, most of Hamas' tunnels were destroyed, Hamas was humiliated by Israel - it could barely launch 8 rockets on the last day of the conflict, nothing compared to HA's 400-500 rockets per day.....and Hanniye comes out today and declares a "Great Victory" against the zionists....is this guy serious?

"Humiliation" is failing to meet expectations. Nobody expected Hamas to put up a tough resistance to Israel, but they did.

Hamas doesn't have the capabilities of Hezbollah, and didn't before Israel started the war, so I don't see how you're calling this a "humiliation." Hamas and Gaza as a whole would have been humiliated had they accepted Israeli ceasefire terms.

It was a war launched to destroy Hamas. Hamas is still standing even after sustaining blows from the most powerful military in the region. Even then, Israelis wouldn't launch a ground invasion of Gaza because they would have had to deal with a repeat of 2006.

Hamas was militarily defeated (sort of), but gained political victory.

[Abou Sandal]

Originally Posted by Zayn

Hamas was militarily defeated (sort of), but gained political victory.

I agree with almost all what you said on the matter but on this one.

Hamas is far far far...so far from being defeated militarily,you cannot even begin to imagine to which extent.

Israel encircled the populated areas,and bombed them savagely all over during days.

Then,special units were sent here and there to try to secure a way for the Army,but were always met,and on all fronts,by heavy resistance.

So Israeli troops had to retreat,and reconduct campaigns of heavy bombing,then try once again.

Same heavy resistance was there to welcome them.

Till the time was up for the war campaign,and Israelis realized by then,that 22 days of heavy bombing,could only get them as far as the outskirts of little cities or refugees camps...In almost empty areas...But noway in hell inside them.

From a military perspective,Gaza,just like Maroun El Ras,are a weak and unsustainable fronts.

Yet,Israel couldn't get in...after heavy bombing for days.There is a reason for that,and don't think that the Israelis didn't try hard.

But they still failed.

As for the military capabilities of Hamas,although they are not comparable to those of HA,and no one expected as much from Hamas anyway,yet,they are untouched.

You will hear a lot from the Israelis about how much they damaged Hamas and lots of BS of that kind.Reality is so much different.

Only a small,very small percentage of Hamas's force was dissipated (whether due to hits or to the use of it)...(A very very small percentage,that does not exceed 5% btw)

Hamas's forces were deployed in all the cities and Hamas kept declaring till the last day,that the real battle will only begin when the IDF will try to get in.Around 20 000 trained resistant were eagerly waiting the IDF...That couldn't show up ultimately.

Trying to get inside the cities was the "Part 3" of Israel's tactical plan...And Israel kept declaring that it will begin implementing it soon...until it declared its unilateral cease-fire and partial withdrawal,from the outskirts of those populated areas.

Hamas forces and arsenal are almost intact,and Hamas held the besieged cities.

This is more than what was expected from Hamas by many military experts.

The victory is undeniable.

And like i said before,Israel is only trying to hide its defeat,behind the high toll of murdered citizens and the high amount of destruction.

But no one buys that anymore.Israel is no longer able to occupy lands,no longer able to hold occupied lands,no more able to defend itself or its citizens.

The countdown has quiet clearly started.

[Abou Sandal]

Evaluation of the Israeli festival of slaughter and butchery in Gaza Saturday, January 17, 2009 On balance: Evaluation of the Israeli festival of slaughter and butchery in Gaza From war to war (which is a title of a book by Nadav Safran), that is the context in which we need to evaluate our century-old conflict with Israel. You can't isolate each chapter or war or slaughter and analyze it without the larger context of the conflict. The press conference by the Israeli prime minister and his defense minister was remarkable: less triumphalist than usual, and certainly vague about goals and successes. Now we can evaluate the goals within the context of Israel's declared goals, and within the context of Israel's strategic plan. For somebody of my age, I can say this at first: that from 1948 until the 1990s, every Israeli military success more smashing the one before: the 1973 was a different story because it was the only Arab-Israeli war that was initiated by the Arab side (remarkable when you think about the propaganda of the "beleaguered Israel"), and it was bungled by the Egyptian (Nazi) dictator, Anwar Sadat (Jimmy Carter's favorite personality and friend), and Israel (contrary to present-day Arab states' propaganda) wound up winning overall at the end. So Israel's strategic posture was predicated on intimidating 1) the armies of the enemy; 2) the population of the enemy. Israeli psychological warfare succeeded for decades in convincing the enemy that Israel is way too mighty and way too invincible to be damaged by any military effort. Arabs reached a mood of defeatism that permeated the political culture, and helped in securing the survival and propaganda of the ruling regimes. Israel's tactic was meant to discourage any political violence or even defense from the other side. You also need to compare to the times when Israel faced non-state actors: we have different episodes: from Al-Karamah battle in 1968 (a crucial watershed in fida'iyyin recruitment), to the various chapters of Israeli invasions of Lebanon culminating in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon. I am quite familiar and witnessed the responses to Israeli invasions of Lebanon. It is in that context that I find Gaza (under siege and cut off from the world with Egypt playing the role of the ally of Israel) to be an utter failure for the Israeli side. I never expected much from Hamas in terms of military effectiveness, and I think that the Israeli-Egyptian-Saudi-Dahlan plan was based on a low estimation of Hamas' military effectiveness. In previous confrontations in the West Bank or in Lebanon in the 1980s, the Israeli military would bomb from the air for a day or two, and then advance swiftly. And that was exactly what happened in the invasion of Lebanon in the summer of 1982: now, the lack of stiff resistance back then had to do with many factors, including the lousy leadership of `Arafat (who cared about preserving his little empire more than about resistance and who is not dead enough as far as I am concerned, and may his grave deepen), the gap between people of the South and the resistance, and the financial regularization of the PLO's fighting force, and the psychological factor that often curtailed the ability of the fighting force, all helped the Israeli plan. True, there was stiff resistance in some places: like Rashidiyyah and `Ayn Al-Hilwah but it was sporadic and disorganized. Only in West Beirut, a strong fighting force was prepared and they were ready for a confrontation with Israel, and that is why Israel never invaded the city: it only waited until the evacuation of the fighters and then supervised the butchery of the women and children in the Sabra and Shatila camps--slaughter of women and children is a classic specialty of the Zionist forces even before the establishment of the state. But Hamas performed far better than the expectations of its enemies and even of its leadership in Syria and Lebanon. Israel would have succeeded if it achieved what it wanted: to achieve an unconditional surrender of Hamas. That's what it used to get from Fatah in the West Bank: Arafat would negotiate the terms of his surrender with third-parties and that would be that (like in Bethlehem). Yet, Hamas defiance and the launching of rockets continued to the last day--in fact it continues as I write this from what I see on the screen. Hamas leaders did not leave as Fatah leaders and fighters would (in the era under Arafat-Dahlan-Rajjub in the West Bank bantustan after Oslo), but continued in stiff resistance and defiance to the very last end. So Israel failed in 1) achieving a total surrender of Hamas; 2) in propping up the Dahlan-Abu Mazen gangs who are more discredited today than ever. Early in the campaign, Dahlan appeared on Al-Arabiyya and on Egyptian TV and was quite bombastic because he was expecting that the matter would be over in the first week. When that did not happen, he disappeared, and some say that he went back to Montenegro--his news base. 3) Israel failed in achieving a victory that it needed: a victory that would once and for all put to rest the humiliating defeat of Israel in 2006. Hamas knew that its performance was extremely influential in possibly dramatically altering the image of the Israeli soldiers in the eyes of all Arabs: fighters and lay people alike, and it knew that expectations were in building on the performance on Hizbullah in 2006; 4) Israel failed in creating a rift between the Palestinian people and Hamas, just as it failed to create a rift between the population of the South and Hizbullah, its silly SMS messages notwithstanding; 5) Israel failed in putting an end to the rockets; 6) Israel failed in smashing Hamas; 7) Israel failed in creating a new psychological climate in the Middle East: it was expected that Israel would use more massive and indiscriminate violence than before, and that it would try to "shock and awe" more than before because it wanted to kill the image of its humiliation in South Lebanon. That was not accomplished despite the high number of casualties among the civilians. 8) Israeli prime minister today bragged about intelligence successes: but that was inflated. It is true the killing of two Hamas leaders (along with tens of innocent civilians but that is how Israel "assassinates") was a success for Israel but there are other Hamas leaders. Plus, Israel policy of assuming that an organization would die by killing the leader has always been one of the many dumb Israeli miscalculations. The most recent case was in 1992 when Israeli terrorist leaders killed Abbas Musawi (and his family) and they got...Hasan Nasrallah instead. I have no doubt that they probably now regret killing Musawi. And Hamas now operates on the assumption that all leaders may die and they have most likely structured the organization on that assumption, unlike the centrally run, say, DFLP or Fatah under `Arafat. 9) Israel failed to build on the years-old Saudi policy of mobilizing Arab public opinion against Iran, instead of Israel. That clearly failed miserably. If anything, Arab public opinion is more mobilized against Israel than any other time in memory. 10) Israel failed to sell its slaughter as a legitimate contribution to the "war on terrorism". Clearly, the scenes of carnage offended public opinion around the world with the exception of the US and the UN embassy of Micronesia. But there are successes: if Israel was aiming to kill a very large number of women and children, that was achieved to a large measure. Very knowledgeable sources in Beirut tell me that only 5% of Hamas' fighting abilities were damaged in this war thus far, and there will be another round no doubt. But think about Karamah battle. In Karamah: a lot of the lore was built by Arafat's bombast and a unit of the Jordanian army fought with the Palestinian resistance. This time around, Arab and particularly Palestinian public opinion will look with admiration at the performance of Hamas during this 22 days. It is commonly estimated that some 20,000 Palestinians volunteered in the resistance movement after Karamah, and I expect a region-wide campaign of recruitment to the benefit of Hamas. Israel's choice of Palestinian leadership (supported by Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt), i.e., Dahlan gangs, are discredited beyond repair. I mean, when I read in Saudi newspapers description of Dahlan as an Israeli stooge, you know how Palestinian opinion will regard him--and the fleeing of his men in their underwear did not help either. From 1968 to 1978, the Fatah movement transformed from a band of fighters in Jordan to an army (badly run to be sure by Arafat) with all sorts of heavy weapons. There is now a point of no-return: Arabs are no more afraid of Israeli soldiers. From that loss, Israel shall never recover and it will expedite the inevitable process of the elimination of Zionism from Palestine. The confrontation with Israel is cumulative, and this culmination is now not in the interests of Israel. Many Arabs now talk about the defeat of Israel: I rarely heard those sentiments before 2006. The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب: On balance: Evaluation of the Israeli festival of slaughter and butchery in Gaza

[Abufijli]

Thanks AbouSanadal for that article, it is true that the 2006 war was a turning point in Arab history, same as this war. The defeat of Israel is no longer a dream, its a reality within our grasp. SHN did not err when he said that the July was was a significant strategic victory for the reistsance forces in the Arab world. We are begining to reap its benefits now. For years to come I believe.

[roch10452]

please explain why do you consider hamas as the winner? what did hamas win?
what did isreal loose?

[Venom]

Originally Posted by roch10452

please explain why do you consider hamas as the winner? what did hamas win?
what did isreal loose?

Hamas won its existence....that's the caliber of winning for the Arabs these days....


on a side note HA war and Hamas war cannot be compared.......totally different

[>Watani<]

Originally Posted by venom

hamas won its existence....that's the caliber of winning for the arabs these days....


On a side note ha war and hamas war cannot be compared.......totally different

حماس والشعب الفلسطينيّ على حد ٍ سواء، ليس لديهم أيّ شيء ليخسروه
بينما إسرائيل لديها الكثير لتخسره وأهم شيء هو الوقت