Tripoly Elections 2009

[Bachir]

Originally Posted by Observer

1 - This article is 3 years old.
2- Last election, Ahbash and under a very vicious attacks from FM and with their limited resources got 7800 votes in Tripoly alone. They were exlusively Sunni votes. 7800 is 18% of the Sunni who voted in tripoly, and are purely members of their association.

1- this article is 4 months old, not 3 years old.
2- the writer said "al a7bach yamlikoun koudra tajyiria toukaddar bi 1000 sawt", he didnt say that ahbach took 1000 voices in the elections. they have 1000 and they took 7800 so what? Taha Naji took so many voices from the alawits, are the alawits ahbach???

[Bachir]

Originally Posted by mickey117

1 seat is m2amneh 3al 2akid in my opinion, the Alawite one, a second, a sunni, is surely to be given by Hariri to one of the opposition leaders, and I think Safadi might win a seat and join the opposition (the current one that is), now there might be a lot of surprises, what is sure is that there will be khooroo2at!
What is very expected is that every candidate runs Seperatly!
If That was the case I think this would be the results:

Greek Orthodox: Maurice Fadel
Maronite: Hariri guy, whoever he is this time
Alawite: Rifaat Eid
Sunni1: Mikati
Sunni2: Safadi
Sunni3: Abdel Maid el Rifai
Sunni4: Omar Karami
Sunni5: Misbah el Ahdab or Samir el Jisr

i wish what u r saying can be true but unfortunately it is not.

the alawit seat is not guaranteed, even if they will leave the alawit seat empty in FM list, the sunnits wont vote to Eid family, so the moderated alawits will have a chance, and the alawit street will give the opposition no matter what, they are not waiting Eid to tell them what to do.

the orthodox wont be Maurice Fadel, he is not a candidate, his son Habib may be the candidate on the loyalist list.

The maronite is probably Samir Frangieh on FM list.

as about the sunnits, u can say bye bye to Mosbah, Samir el Jisr is for sure on the list, Safadi and FM will be for sure allies, Safadi have no other choice, he have business in Saudi and he cant say no to them.

it all depends about Mikati to change the equation in case he forms an alliance with Karami.

[Observer]

Originally Posted by Bachir

1- this article is 4 months old, not 3 years old.
2- the writer said "al a7bach yamlikoun koudra tajyiria toukaddar bi 1000 sawt", he didnt say that ahbach took 1000 voices in the elections. they have 1000 and they took 7800 so what? Taha Naji took so many voices from the alawits, are the alawits ahbach???

1 - How did you know the article is 4 months old?

2 - It seems you did not read what i wrote. I clearly said that 7600 votes are all Sunni and I have the results and these results were published in newspapers and showed how many votes did Taha Naji get in Tripoly and how many Sunni among them. I have the results and I have the newspapers and actually they are online. Now, can you provide us with the numbers of Taha Naji to support your claim? Can you provide us with any numbers for Taha Naji for the last election without supporting any claim even?

With the vicious attacks on them and with the secterian instigation that was going on, surely nobody other than their members voted for them.

3 - Nobody other than their members voted for Taha Naji. The writer of this article got it all wrong, at least when he spoke about the numbers of Ahbash. The author does not seem to have had any chance at reading the numbers of the last election.

[mickey117]

And why wouldn't Safadi and Tabbara switch sides??? haven't you heard their recent statements? (especially Tabbara) On the contrary, it is a lot more likely for them to join the opposition than for Mikaty to do so! 2aslan, Mohammad el Safadi is also very close to Sleiman Frangieh! He will never forget that it was SF who led him into politics, he said so himself!

No Alawi FMer will dare run this time, he will be killed for sure... But it's possible to have 2 Alawis from the opposition running against each other...

I think Mikati will run as an independant!

[Bachir]

Originally Posted by Observer

1 - How did you know the article is 4 months old?

2 - It seems you did not read what i wrote. I clearly said that 7600 votes are all Sunni and I have the results and these results were published in newspapers and showed how many votes did Taha Naji get in Tripoly and how many Sunni among them. I have the results and I have the newspapers and actually they are online. Now, can you provide us with the numbers of Taha Naji to support your claim? Can you provide us with any numbers for Taha Naji for the last election without supporting any claim even?

With the vicious attacks on them and with the secterian instigation that was going on, surely nobody other than their members voted for them.

3 - Nobody other than their members voted for Taha Naji. The writer of this article got it all wrong, at least when he spoke about the numbers of Ahbash. The author does not seem to have had any chance at reading the numbers of the last election.

1- the date is on the article, that's how i knew it is 4 months old.

2- your info are not exact, the alawits replaced Safouh Yakan by Taha Naji, that's how he got good nb of alawits voices, if he got 7800 voices in tripoli, it doesnt mean that there is 7800 voices owned by Ahbach.

3- why dont u contact tayyar.org and tell them that u know more then the author and give us ur amazing study.

4- are u even from Tripoli?

5- I was inside the "electoral machines" in 2000 and 2005, and i am already following weekly meetings with our allies in Tripoli, and i know what im talking about.

[TayyarBeino]

من قال ان طرابلس محسومة بالانتخابات للحريري؟ والاحداث الامنية الاخيرة في الشمال الا لعرقلة الانتخابات
وعند سؤاله عن طرابلس قال ان الإنتخابات النيابية في عاصمة الشمال هي غير محسومة والكفة ترجحها التحالفات الإنتخابية وأضاف :"ان كميات هائلة من الأموال الإنتخابية تضخ في جميع المناطق اللبنانية. و اعتبر فرنجية "أن تيار "المستقبل" لا يثق بحلفائه النواب فيما يختص بالأموال الإنتخابية ،وهو يغطي مصاريفهم بحسب الفواتير المقدمة إليه والأموال الإنتخابية ،يمكن أن تأخذ عدة أشكال، بدءاً من مساعدات إجتماعية عبر الجمعيات الخيرية ،وصولاً إلى الجمعية العليا للإغاثة."


Slieman Franjieh tonight

[Bachir]

Originally Posted by mickey117

And why wouldn't Safadi and Tabbara switch sides??? haven't you heard their recent statements? (especially Tabbara) On the contrary, it is a lot more likely for them to join the opposition than for Mikaty to do so! 2aslan, Mohammad el Safadi is also very close to Sleiman Frangieh! He will never forget that it was SF who led him into politics, he said so himself!

No Alawi FMer will dare run this time, he will be killed for sure... But it's possible to have 2 Alawis from the opposition running against each other...

I think Mikati will run as an independant!

I wish Safadi can be with us, but let's not go so far in our dreams.
Safadi said the other day in close meeting "ana majbour enzal ma3 tayyar el mosta2bal bi trablos", the guy have no choice for 2 reasons:
1st, Saudian pressure
2nd, he will have to pay huuuggggge amounts of money to fight FM and vice versa, he may loose his seat in Donnieh (Kassem Abdul Aziz).
and even if he was on Sleiman Frangieh's list in 2000, it doesnt mean that he will be loyal to him, was he on Frangieh's list in 2005?

as about the Alawit seat, Bader Wannous will do anything to run again, Khodr Habib is doing his best to be on FM's list in 2009, maybe Hariri will leave the seat empty, but it will be Hariri's decision, not the alawit candidates decision.

the results will depend on Mikati's position, independant or with us or with them.
with us or independant, both ways is good for the opposition. even if he forms a whole independant list, it will be good for us.

so far, the official candidates of the opposition are:
-Hezeb el ta7aror el 3arabi (Omar Karami's party, most probably Faysal Karami and someone else)
-Jabhet el 3amal el islami (they didnt nominate their candidate yet, but it is for sure not Fathi Yakan)
-Marada (Rafleh Diab on the orthodox seat)

the maronite and the alawit seat and the other sunnit seats are still empty (Eid may choose a moderate figure close to him, since the sunnits wont vote for him)

[Observer]

Originally Posted by Bachir

1- the date is on the article, that's how i knew it is 4 months old.

.

The date said 10/6 it means month 10 day 6. That is october 6 which is the day this article appeared on tayyar.org.

I do remember that I read big chunks of this article long time ago and by FPM media. I still do not remember where.

Originally Posted by Bachir

2- your info are not exact, the alawits replaced Safouh Yakan by Taha Naji, that's how he got good nb of alawits voices,

Here is how much each candidate received. The numbers are as follows.
سني علوي مسيحي المجموع
محمد الصفدي 47,711 975 2,584 51,270
محمد كباره 45,350 517 1,864 47,731
مصباح الاحدب 43,240 389 2,246 45,875
سمير الجسر 42,633 386 1,683 44,702
مصطفى علوش 42,282 373 1,619 44,274
عبد المجيد الرافعي 16,762 4,453 4,465 25,680
محمد الجسر 13,444 3,730 3,937 21,111
احمد كرامي 12,317 4,499 3,998 20,814
صفوح يكن 11,729 3,642 3,571 18,942
نواف كباره 9,699 4,015 3,899 17,613

Anybody clearly see that the alawite did abide by the list and there isn't much diference between Safoo7 Yakan and the others on that list whereas the difference between rafi3i who got the highest alawite number and Yakan is about 800 votes. This difference went in most to Safadi and Hariri lists (900 or so for Safadi). I am still looking for other files to paste for you more numbers.

Originally Posted by Bachir

if he got 7800 voices in tripoli, it doesnt mean that there is 7800 voices owned by Ahbach.

Until now, you are just claiming without any single evidence. No Sunni, other than a member of their association, voted for them. I can present further evidences to prove my point but I do not know if you are just arguing for the sake of argument or you truly want to get somewhere.

Originally Posted by Bachir

3- why dont u contact tayyar.org and tell them that u know more then the author and give us ur amazing study.

First I do not have to tell them how to do their job. If they are satisfied with a half a** job then they bear the consequences not me.
Second: it is not a study. The writer of this article did a bad job because he did not even bother to read FACTS and not a study. Numbers are FACTS and not a study.

Originally Posted by Bachir

4- are u even from Tripoli?

No. But I do not know what are you driving at. Does reading a newspaper or the official report from the ministry of interior requires me to be in Tripoly? Strange indeed.

Originally Posted by Bachir

5- I was inside the "electoral machines" in 2000 and 2005, and i am already following weekly meetings with our allies in Tripoli, and i know what im talking about.

Still you failed to read the numbers. Numbers do not lie Bachir. I did present the numbers and I can present further evidences, but not until I am certain that you want to get somewhere. I am not debating you. I am only presenting the true numbers for people to read.

I do not want to tell how much I was involved in election 2005. There are things that I am not ready to divulge.

[orangekid]

I am living in Tripoli but i vote in Koura, for sure the quraytem team will not dominate 100% especially if there were new alliances

[Abou Samra]

The main problem for the opposition is that what happened in May 2008 in Beirut shocked a lot the sunnis of Tripoli and I think that the voters there will try to show that they opposed what happened in voting for FM (more than in voting for 14 feb propositions).

I believe more in a FM tsunami in Tripoli than anything else as a sign of resistance to what Hezbollah and Amal made in Beirut... But it will be maybe more a way to oppose the humiliation than a political choice.