Should GMA accept Ratib Saliba from Bteghrine as the C&R candidate?

[Amirkani]

Many media reports have talked about Ratib Saliba from Bteghrine being a very strong candidate for the Orthodox seat in Metn... one with a lot of experience... one who can also bring in plenty of his own votes to the whole list, considering the Saliba family is the largest in Bteghrine and many surrounding villages.

His only negative (or maybe it's a plus?) is that he used to be Michel Murr's right-hand and ran all his campaigns before they had their fallout.

Should Aoun consider adding him to the C&R list as Ratib has been hinting he'd like to be? What do you think?

Serious replies only, please...

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[Garabet B]

how many votes can he get us ? that's the most important thing in Metn elections this time around... we cant afford having incompetent candidates. lets choose the best ones ever in metns history. the whole country actually depends on metn elections ..

the positive side of having someone like him would be contacting all the electoral keys of michel murr and getting them on our side maybe ? since as you're saying he was MMs right hand ..?

[LEBNEN AWALAN]

As a Matne e7,
As a FPMer e7,
As someone who knows Ratib,kabalan saliba and Michel murr
As a cheghel intikhebet in 1998,2000,2002,2004,2005,2007.. not to add some regional and university elections...

Kouwet tejyeryeh lal ketal:(i m ready to discuss any number)
FPM = 17000
Kataeb = 15000
Tashnag = 9000
Michel Murr a)pure= 3500 b)Kataeb murr = 3000 c)Fpm Murr = 3000
LF = 3000
SSNP = 4000
Nassib Lahoud = 1000
A7rar = 500
Sarkis Sarkiss = 1000
Money = 7000


14 March : GOOD
- They(Murr+kataeb) got 80% of makhatir and rou2assa baladya, which means mafati7 intikhebyeh...
- Very good machine..better than FPM 3al arad...
- Amine gemayl strong hold bekfaya and jewara
- Michel Murr moujanassin + terghib w terhib on some Murr FPMers
- Money and not only money...their followers know how to use it.. ;(

14 March : BAD
- toshtib bayen ba3ed
- No trust
- Many people hate Michel murr....some will switch from their side
- Murr and Lahood alliance will give us some points (15years of hate and attack w faj2a...massale7)
- As from newspapers and some connections: their list will have maybe two none matenies candidates (Elie karame and Najjar)
- Sarkiss Sarkiss will not be in their list which will effect Amine gemayl 2007 result
- Sami gemayl is not Amine Gemayl...



Fpm+tashnag = Good
- Tashnag Block
- Fpm candidates like BOB-Mkhayber (evenif alone they dont have a block)
- GMA can change any candidate...we are open to any new member (Not like 14 March, they are stuck between Kataeb Murr lF lahood A7rar...)
- Baskenta and burj hammoud strong hold...
- Very good bi se7el maten...bad in wassat...equal bel jered
- SSNP ready to vote for free...


Fpm+tashnag = Bad
- Machine Zero
- GMA 7emel lista
- in numbers they start in better position..but we count on independent people...(new tsunami)


About Ratib Saliba,
FIRST: in bteghrine there is ~2000 nekheb Michel murr used to take 1500 and dodo 500..
-In 2002: Mirna 1452, Gaby 397
-In 2005 results: 1550 average FPM and 1606 MM
Gemayel 350
-In 2007 results:1276 Kamil vs 506 Amine
We can deduce from the result above that there is no political parties in bteghrine....there is with or agaisnt Michel Murr....I dont think that ratib saliba will change the result...we will take the same average 500FPM vs 1500MM.(or maybe 150 more)

Second : what about ratib effect outside bteghrine..? i dont think that Ratib has influence on MM followers (saliba friends), or the people that used to take advantage from MM power during the syrian era...
MM fi yedghat 3alayoun aktar..
With ratib saliba we are targetting the same category of people (People used to take advantage from MM)... but if we took another candidate like Rehbani we can attack a new category where MM is not good...


For Me to win the battle we should:
1- Start our machine early
2- Nfa3el (FPM-MURR) followers.. cause they know how to work
3- Choose some good candidates..taking in consideration families and villages...

Lista massalan:
Orthodox : Mkhayber - Rehbani (strong hold antelias + plus many used to work with the family)
Catho : Maalouf
Arman: Hagop
Maronite: BOB- Salhab - ABOU JAOUDE member - ( Sarkiss Sarkiss ,Paul gemayl (dont know his position lately), Bou Habib (- if issam faress ready to join and help -) abboud as in between SSNP and FPM....)

Abou jaoude family counts more than 7000 members..we can change Maten result if we choose a good member...

As for nabil nicolas. i prefer to see him minister... I know that he is a very good person and he did very well in the last 4 years..but his problem resides in his small family..kouwe tajyiryeh

[kappa273]

any popularity Ratib Saliba had was because of Michel el Murr...

in other words, people who would vote for Ratib Saliba over Michel el Murr will vote against Michel el Murr regardless of who is running against Michel El Murr..

1- Ratib Saliba would be a good candidate if surveys are showing a significant advantage of FPM & Co. lists in Metn.. in this case, Michel el Murr will be defeated by no one other than his protege, which would be a great insult to someone as arrogant as michel el murr.. this may actually make Michel el Murr lose his mind live on TV which would affect him negatively.

2- Although he's from the Saliba family and the Saliba family consider themselves more important than the Murr in Bteghrine, i am not sure Ratib Saliba candidacy will be able to trigger that flame... Inner family issues are not very strong in Bteghrine, the way they are in other places.

3- the advantage which FPM gained by Michel el Murr leaving in a very impolite and ingrate way may be lost if Ratib Saliba runs on FPM lists against Michel el Murr.. he became famous because of Michel Murr

4- FPM is looking for good caliber deputies, like Kanaan and Mkheiber... With all due respect to Ratib Saliba (a family relative), we cannot compare him to people like Kanaan and Mkheiber.... but this is not completely correct... don't forget that we have people like Tony Zahra, Farid Habib, saad hariri and Fadi Hbeish in the parliament right now... and even my dog would make a better PM than these people..

kappa

[kappa273]

Originally Posted by LEBNEN AWALAN

Abou jaoude family counts more than 7000 members..we can change Maten result if we choose a good member...

Abou Jawdeh is the largest family in Metn... the reason why an Abou Jawdeh was never a candidate is because of the inner-family competition...

any Jawdeh member on one list will automatically mean that the other 6500 will vote to the other list (7000 - 500= 6500)...

kappa

[lebanese1]

Can anyone explain to us why Ratib Saliba and Darwich Hobeika, 2 pillars of Murr's electoral machine, abandonned him?

[ecce homo]

Originally Posted by Amirkani

Many media reports have talked about Ratib Saliba from Bteghrine being a very strong candidate for the Orthodox seat in Metn... one with a lot of experience... one who can also bring in plenty of his own votes to the whole list, considering the Saliba family is the largest in Bteghrine and many surrounding villages.

His only negative (or maybe it's a plus?) is that he used to be Michel Murr's right-hand and ran all his campaigns before they had their fallout.

Should Aoun consider adding him to the C&R list as Ratib has been hinting he'd like to be? What do you think?

Serious replies only, please...

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Hi Amirkani

You said yorself yesterday regarding Beirut 1:

Originally Posted by Amirkani

Names don't and won't matter in who will run. It could be Absi, Matni, or Amirkani. What will matter in who gets selected are 2 things:

1- Who will contribute more to the win of the whole list.
2- Who will stay loyal to FPM and the C&R bloc after they're elected.

Whoever (including myself) is not willing to accept those 2 simple selection criteria isn't worthy of FPM's support.

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Why shouldn't it apply in Metn?

But since he's a former Murr associate FPM should be extremely cautious about it and check if his past would hurt the election race or not. The worst scenario is that Murr reveals something very negative about him just days before the election day… So his past is important.

Secondly it depends on how eager his is to join the C&R block.

[GMA forever]

The low level politics that Michel Murr and Amine Gemayel are playing, turned the election battle of northern Maten from who will win it into who will loose it.

It is sad to say, but I think now we have to use their weapons. Before, it was Feb. 14th doing anything in order to prevent FPM from winning, now it is Feb. 14th + Michel Murr doing anything in order to prevent FPM from winning. So I think now it is time for FPM to do anything in order to prevent this from happening. If Mr. Ratib Saliba will help our block in achieving this goal, I am all for him being on our list. It is a battle to the bone, and let the calculations work.

[TonyFPM]

Bet saliba bala neyib w ma byethaddo bel forum, kif ma3 neyib?! Bi siro neybine l akhdar wel yebis. M against.

[barid]

I smell a torjan horse from his candidacy.
You should check Ghassan Rahbani's popularity in Maten. Many times he expressed his interrest to run.