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  (#31 (permalink)) Old
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Default 9th April 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa View Post
this man wa jama3to better be called.

al jama3at al 7arireyya.
he will withdraw and support sousou 7ouwe wa mabsout..
actually we might be seeing him hanging souwarr wa yafitat lal sanyoira.
Well you should like there logic from 6 we want 2 for sure lol.

Anyway coming days politics will be more fun hopefully and lets enjoy those days till jun7 because for sure after that we will get bored because no more 14 gang.

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Default 19th April 2009

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Default 19th April 2009

Can someone please provide an objective assessment of Saida's electoral expectations?

What is the average weight of each party, and what are Sanyoura's chances of succeeding? Does he have his own ''te2el sha3be'', or is solely relying on Rafic Hariri's legacy to win?

Are the people of Saida willing to topple Saad? What is Jame3a Islemiye's most likely stance and weight in this region?

I would really hate to see Ousama Saad losing, he is probably one of the opposition's most respectful figures, and a long time patriot...

Thoughts appreciated,

Regards
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Default 19th April 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tayyar Keserwen View Post
Can someone please provide an objective assessment of Saida's electoral expectations?

What is the average weight of each party, and what are Sanyoura's chances of succeeding? Does he have his own ''te2el sha3be'', or is solely relying on Rafic Hariri's legacy to win?

Are the people of Saida willing to topple Saad? What is Jame3a Islemiye's most likely stance and weight in this region?

I would really hate to see Ousama Saad losing, he is probably one of the opposition's most respectful figures, and a long time patriot...

Thoughts appreciated,

Regards
According to Abdo Saad, FM has 37% of the votes, Saad has 25% and the remaining 38% are independants. A good part of them may have the tendency to vote Bahia/Saad.
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Default 19th April 2009

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Originally Posted by lebanese1 View Post
According to Abdo Saad, FM has 37% of the votes, Saad has 25% and the remaining 38% are independants. A good part of them may have the tendency to vote Bahia/Saad.
Thx.

Do the figures encompass FPM and Jame3a Islemye votes too?

What were the 2005 results?
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Default 19th April 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tayyar Keserwen View Post
Thx.

Do the figures encompass FPM and Jame3a Islemye votes too?

What were the 2005 results?
in 2005 they both win "bil tazkieh"
and in all previous elections, they were both part of Hizb/amal list

and regarding FPM, Zahrani Saida is kaza, but it's divided 2 districts electoraly
the christians weight is in Zahrani, were the most of them support Michel Moussa

and regarding Jamaa Islamieh, they were allied with oussama Saad when they beated Rafic Harriri and Bizri got elected for the municipality of Saida
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Default 20th April 2009

Anyone has the detailed numbers for the 2004 baladeyet elections?
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Tayyar Keserwen (20th April 2009)
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Default 20th April 2009

Quote:
and regarding FPM, Zahrani Saida is kaza, but it's divided 2 districts electoraly
the christians weight is in Zahrani, were the most of them support Michel Moussa
LOL zakaretneh
my friend who's a hardcore LFer bel jem3a is pro moussa (he's from maghdousheh)
and he's bel makana el intikhabiyeh of michel moussa and therefore 7araket amal lol
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Default 20th April 2009

When I first knew that Saniora submitted his admission to run for elections there and announce it on the last day of the deadline, I was amazed by that move! Everyone thought it was a rumor.
But anyway it's an honor. It would be a pleasure of course, to vote against one of the most "prominent" corruption figures in the history of Lebanon, against one the cheapest sellouts, against the main representer of Feb14 coalition in the government, and last but not least, against our current Prime Minister; and if any sect feels insulted by my last declared sentence, then let it be so.

So, how luckier could I get than that I vote in Saida?

Anyway, good thing there's an alternative otherwise I wont be enjoying that honor! I wont be traveling more than 2000 to vote in a shiny white piece of paper.

Disregarding Saad Family's feudalism, Dr. Osama Saad, unlike his older brother (who was actually more of a mafia gangster and a head of a militia) whom he inherited the parliamentary seat from, is actually a very good alternative and one of the few of our several hundreds candidates in Lebanon who deserve the seat.

Just some little info about MP Saad, as I know him personally.
Prior to death of his brother, he wasn't that of an active member in the PNO.
He wasn't on very good and tight relations with his brother either! A complete different mentality and principles!
He used to rely on his job as his source of living and actually lives by an average standard of living. For the record, I think he's the only MP whose mid-twenties son doesn't even own a car! And he's the only who right after elected MP and assigned head of secretary of the PNO, had to borrow some money from his close friends in order to cover some of the usual expenses!

Ideologically he runs under the slogans of the former Arabic leader, Nasser. A secularist and a resistance supporter who advocates the unification of the Arabic countries. Politically he endorses reform on all aspects and runs as an oppositionist to all the previous era since 1990! He also stood against Doha agreement, as he clarified himself that is not the right democratic way to rule a country, and advocated the proportional electoral law as well.
It's true he's in good relations with Berri and ran in one list with him, but definitely of totally different material and not involved in any of Berri's affairs.
Their alliance is for political purposes only. Ya3ne, Berri's financing the guy for as I mentioned PNO under his leadership doesn't own a penny!
One could sense a little contradiction in here of course, but he has no other way to win. So this is the compromise he must pay in. At the end, he still maintains his independence unlike the sellouts on Berri's list.

In conclusion, he is a good and respectful candidate to be elected. Regardless of some of the question marks one could raise.
For me personally, he'd be one of the few I'd vote for, and voting for him is actually the main motive to go vote, along with helping the opposition get the majority. Ya3ne, if it were still Mostafa Saad (his brother) or Maarouf Saad running against the Jerkoff and "2o5t l Shaheed", I wont be voting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tayyar Keserwen View Post
Can someone please provide an objective assessment of Saida's electoral expectations?
Honestly, if I could make it on June 7th, I don't think my vote or other votes for Saad would lead him to an electoral win!

The main question would be whether the hard core FMers are a majority in Saida or not! For those would be the only ones "ysa2towa zay ma hiyyi".

Others would be independents who prefer to keep the balance of power in Saida, thus voting both Saad and Hariri.

PNO hard core supporters became a small minority in Saida (at least in comparison to Hariri family (aka FM) base). Mainly because of Saad's secular speech, and because of his lack of money and of ability of offering any services. Still some stay either because of their historical attachment to PNO and Maarouf Saad (the founder of PNO and the historical Sunnite leader in Saida) or because they hate the guts of Hariri family and Rafic Hariri in specific. The latter group would be the ones who distributed those delicious Beklawa on Feb. 14th 2005. :D

Of course there are still the Bizri's supporters who'd only vote for Osama.
And a very small minority who if went to vote, they'd vote for Osama only because of political or ideological principles.

As to Jame3a Islamiyyi, those are a joke.

In brief, nothing's sure. But personally, I think Saniora is the more probable to make it! Sadly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sniper® View Post
regarding FPM, Zahrani Saida is kaza, but it's divided 2 districts electoraly
the christians weight is in Zahrani, were the most of them support Michel Moussa
Dude, how did you come up with the fact that Mousa has a supportive majority in Zahrani (regarding the Christian votes of course)?!

He's just "sha2fet tartour" owned by Berri. Nothing more nothing less. Even in Maghdouche he has no popularity.

Haydak Samir Azar from Jezzine yalle ken yjiblo shwayit aswat la Berri!

Quote:
Originally Posted by orange infection View Post
LOL zakaretneh
my friend who's a hardcore LFer bel jem3a is pro moussa (he's from maghdousheh)
and he's bel makana el intikhabiyeh of michel moussa and therefore 7araket amal lol
First, even in the civil war where at daylight Amal and Lf were suppposed to fight each other, did at night strike some deals of smuggling weapons and drugs between each others! Nothing surprising. :D

Bass anyway, as to Maghdouche, it's surprising to know there could be an LF supporter from that village! First, it's all orange. Second, one wonders why in hell would someone from East Saida support LF!
The story's really odd.
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Default 20th April 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sniper® View Post
in 2005 they both win "bil tazkieh"
and in all previous elections, they were both part of Hizb/amal list

and regarding FPM, Zahrani Saida is kaza, but it's divided 2 districts electoraly
the christians weight is in Zahrani, were the most of them support Michel Moussa

and regarding Jamaa Islamieh, they were allied with oussama Saad when they beated Rafic Harriri and Bizri got elected for the municipality of Saida
Sniper,
Michel Moussa is only strong in Maghhdouche', in 2005, FPM Candidate and Moussa split the votes in Maghdouche', but for the rest of the Christian villages in Zahrani, Abou Farhat "aka" FPM Candidate beat Moussa with a big margin, final score FPM 4,000 votes vs Moussa's 2,000. Mr. Moussa is only strong in Maghdouche' and I'm sure if the Christian vote makes any difference in this district he will actually end up losing the majority in his village as well to FPM's Candidate.
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