Preventing the rise of a third bloc post 2009 elections

[vegojimbo]

As some events seem to be indicating, a new plan has been set by the foreign powers to take control of the situation post 2009 elections after the Cedar Revolution was found to be a failure and the HA-FPM led coalition proved to turn up as the winner.

Although the strings are held by the external powers, they still rely on internal players to make this happen. And those spread among the entire political spectrum. The players stretch from the president of the Lebanese Republic Michel Sleiman to the Speaker of the House Nabih Berri to Druze leader Walid Jumblat to Michel Murr to Najib Mikati to less influential figures like Nazem Khoury, Emile Nawfal, Fares Boueiz, Mansour Bon, Edmond Gharios, Salah Hnein, and some other independent centrists.
In the case that most of these figures get to enter parliament, a new realignment may very well see the light and it will be figures from both sides of the political spectrum shifting into a new "middle". On the outside, this may appear to be a commendable move, to witness the rise of a middle bloc away from the extreme polarization between 2 battling sides. But in reality, it would be just another group governed from the outside & with the sole intent to keep the status quo and prevent the HA/FPM coalition from bearing the fruits of their 4 year struggle, after the Cedar Revolution ended in utter disappointment.

The task is dual, and once again it's up to FPM and HA (but mainly FPM) to spare the country another round of misfortune. FPM has the hard task of taking on the president (but without letting it spill into the open) and defeating his henchmen in Jbeil. It must defeat as well Bon & boueiz in Keserwen, and Hnein & Gharios in Baabda. As for its hardest task, it must cut Murr's wings once and for all (in Metn, Beirut 1, and in Baabda).
While it's up to HA to keep their brother on a tight leech which they have failed to do for the past 4 years. Berri has sawed the seeds of partnership with Jumblat and has done it in the open. Both men are seeking to control as much seats as possible in preparation for the big shift in order to make it most efficient and with the biggest impact possible. On paper, WJ and NB can easily cost FPM and HA the majority even if both parties win since those 2 men have more than 20-25 MPs combined. It's up to HA to make Berri think twice before venturing into such a move.

So it's up to FPM to prevent this new bloc from having a national cover and representation by making the centrists/independents lose in FPM's areas. Thus, the PSP-Amal led coalition (shiite and druze cover) will have a hard time giving itself the image of a middle bloc (as there will be no christian cover) and might not even see the light. But the risk of it passing the birth stage still exists (let's not forget Mikati joining the coalition, hence giving it a sunni cover), so HA is charged with the task of making Berri think twice or thrice even before venturing into this path.


The task is risky and must be executed in various cazas spread all along Lebanon. HA and FPM must also play their political cards very well and skillfully. As a front line, the opponents are the loyalists. But it's not the only line of defense the HA/FPM coalition has to breach. A second line consisting of soldiers "men ahel el bet" as well as other enemies will be waiting for the slightest weakness to jump on the counter attack and finish off a wearied down FPM/HA offensive. FPM and HA must prepare the gear and put preemptive strategies to prevent such a coup from ever seeing the light of day. Their very survival may depend on it.

[Tsunami67]

Let's cross our fingers and hope all the best for tayyar, and lets trust in GMA wisdom and enough speculations and analysis.
GMA and tayyar's leaders are trustable persons and they are very smart so enough fear and let's head at full speed towards the E-day.
best.

[Souss]

Thanks for this analysis Vego.

However, the assumption behind most of it is that the FPM-HA alliance is strong enough to make HA choose FPM over Amal, which I don't believe to be true.

HA has repeatedly demonstrated that its actions are guided not by national interest, but by shia- and party-centric interests. HA's view is that when they overlap with national interests, great. When they don't, tough luck.

Whether its rejection of the expats vote (in contravention of the MoU) or the universal ballot (which would have drastically reduced vote-buying and cheating), or its apparent sabotaging of Kanj's candidacy, it is clear that HA is going to sign on to FPM projects only when its own interest is served.

[SamerTayyar]

batrak sfeir is the gang leader of this new front..Thanks vego , great analysis

[supersonichadi]

Even though you're analysis is right Vego, but nothing can be done except in the christian areas, so our mission seem to be impossible.

[Positive Balance]

HA has sacrificed for FPM, FPM has sacrificed for HA. This doesn't seem a huge worry.

As for other current 'allies', nothing indicates that they are united by anything more than expediency, so FPM would be wise not to stake its political future entirely on the current alliance. The seats it wins in a month won't change until the next elections, while the (current) opposition is not guaranteed to remain unchanged that long.

Therefore, I agree with Vegojimbo's words:

While it's up to HA to keep their brother on a tight leech which they have failed to do for the past 4 years. Berri has sawed the seeds of partnership with Jumblat and has done it in the open. Both men are seeking to control as much seats as possible in preparation for the big shift in order to make it most efficient and with the biggest impact possible. On paper, WJ and NB can easily cost FPM and HA the majority even if both parties win since those 2 men have more than 20-25 MPs combined. It's up to HA to make Berri think twice before venturing into such a move.

[Revolution1989]

Bottom line, it's up to us to work as hard as possible to win every seat we're competing in, help remaining opposition members to win wherever they're competing and hope they'll reciprocate... Only decision left for GMA is what to do with Kanj. Beyond that decision, we know that we're going our separate way in Jezzine (and we need to fight hard to get those 3 seats) and everywhere else we're not in competition with anyone else in the opposition ... Let's roll-up our sleeves... 30 days to go

I agree with Vego, only "central" thing about this third group is its central role in corruption, clientelism and lack of loyalty to Lebanon

[shevchenco]

Balad, 09/05/2009

[Orange Patriot]

Originally Posted by vegojimbo

As some events seem to be indicating, a new plan has been set by the foreign powers to take control of the situation post 2009 elections after the Cedar Revolution was found to be a failure and the HA-FPM led coalition proved to turn up as the winner.

Although the strings are held by the external powers, they still rely on internal players to make this happen. And those spread among the entire political spectrum. The players stretch from the president of the Lebanese Republic Michel Sleiman to the Speaker of the House Nabih Berri to Druze leader Walid Jumblat to Michel Murr to Najib Mikati to less influential figures like Nazem Khoury, Emile Nawfal, Fares Boueiz, Mansour Bon, Edmond Gharios, Salah Hnein, and some other independent centrists.
In the case that most of these figures get to enter parliament, a new realignment may very well see the light and it will be figures from both sides of the political spectrum shifting into a new "middle". On the outside, this may appear to be a commendable move, to witness the rise of a middle bloc away from the extreme polarization between 2 battling sides. But in reality, it would be just another group governed from the outside & with the sole intent to keep the status quo and prevent the HA/FPM coalition from bearing the fruits of their 4 year struggle, after the Cedar Revolution ended in utter disappointment.

The task is dual, and once again it's up to FPM and HA (but mainly FPM) to spare the country another round of misfortune. FPM has the hard task of taking on the president (but without letting it spill into the open) and defeating his henchmen in Jbeil. It must defeat as well Bon & boueiz in Keserwen, and Hnein & Gharios in Baabda. As for its hardest task, it must cut Murr's wings once and for all (in Metn, Beirut 1, and in Baabda).
While it's up to HA to keep their brother on a tight leech which they have failed to do for the past 4 years. Berri has sawed the seeds of partnership with Jumblat and has done it in the open. Both men are seeking to control as much seats as possible in preparation for the big shift in order to make it most efficient and with the biggest impact possible. On paper, WJ and NB can easily cost FPM and HA the majority even if both parties win since those 2 men have more than 20-25 MPs combined. It's up to HA to make Berri think twice before venturing into such a move.

So it's up to FPM to prevent this new bloc from having a national cover and representation by making the centrists/independents lose in FPM's areas. Thus, the PSP-Amal led coalition (shiite and druze cover) will have a hard time giving itself the image of a middle bloc (as there will be no christian cover) and might not even see the light. But the risk of it passing the birth stage still exists (let's not forget Mikati joining the coalition, hence giving it a sunni cover), so HA is charged with the task of making Berri think twice or thrice even before venturing into this path.


The task is risky and must be executed in various cazas spread all along Lebanon. HA and FPM must also play their political cards very well and skillfully. As a front line, the opponents are the loyalists. But it's not the only line of defense the HA/FPM coalition has to breach. A second line consisting of soldiers "men ahel el bet" as well as other enemies will be waiting for the slightest weakness to jump on the counter attack and finish off a wearied down FPM/HA offensive. FPM and HA must prepare the gear and put preemptive strategies to prevent such a coup from ever seeing the light of day. Their very survival may depend on it.

Great analysis vego. More and more people are coming up with this theory of Berri-Murr-Sleiman-mikati and co becoming the next rising force.

I just want to point out that while this idea of them being moderates in a polarized atmosphere is being sold to the people...those same people dont realize that they will end up being another pole.

With the decline of march 14 this group will be propped up by foreign powers and buttressed by frata from the march 14 and the next "era" may be defined as FPM-HA vs. the new"moderates." result? it morphs into 2 sides once again. the only constant? FPM-HA

[loubnaniDU]

I guess this explains the Jezzine issue... I think HA has taken the seat of Baabda to avid Berri taking it. Along with the Jezzine seat that Berri wanted. I guess HA will vote for all 3 FPM candidates. We are talking about a few deputees they will lose from the future supposedly third bloc.