Post-elections government & the international community

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by taifoon

You do have a point, generally speaking. I find it unlikely however that a small financial shark like Hariri will have more than less marginal impact on our national economy, if he now chooses to develop his sense of mafiosity into that direction that is. Anyway, such dirty tricks do not usually pass unnoticed, and most likely he'll be shooting at his own toes. Also, he's probably the last one to want to defy the many monitoring eyes who only hunger to x-ray his, his family's and his party's past and current underwear with regard to the huge treasury thefts they supervised under 15 years.



Valuable input, maybe so.. However, I'd rather go for the safe than sorry approach, when it comes to dealing with the Americans Lebanese agenda and probable scenarios thereof, at least in regard to the previous administration. With this new one, let's admit we really don't have a clue, yet.

What I have in mind is the well understood late American doctrine which, at least till Bush left, was determined to fight the "axis of evil", and in which Hizbollah was indirectly included, the same way Hamas was and still is. This is neither meant to magnify the worries nor to belittle our status, when we compare Lebanon to Gaza. It's only about awareness of what could come, and for the sake of being well prepared, just in case. Therefore the need for a good and ready to implement common contingency plan among the opposition parties, which includes clear economical and diplomatic moves.

What is also a little disturbing is me sensing that there seems to exist a lack of synchronization on a common governing vision and procedure that should already be nailed down for immediate execution after a probable elections win, between the main opposition parties.

I actually don't believe Sa3doun would go out publicly and reject a PM post, a couple of times so far, had not someone from the opposition whispered such proposal into his ears (and I do believe such proposal was serious and was not only to balloon his saksouke).
Could be that someone in the opposition still values a country wide sectarian tawafouq more than anything else, and sees such move as the needed anaesthetics to accomplish this.. Could also be that there exist regional factors, in which economical ditto plays heavily in when assessing future scenarios. (One of those could be a coming war with Israel. Following such war, economical Saudi and other khaliji and international aid packages would be less likely to be poured into a pure Hizb-Amal-FPM government coalition..)

I agree that for Sa3doun, showing a cute 7erden attitude towards a presumed winning opposition's stretched hand, might earn him few extra election votes. Nonetheless, I think him getting inside an opposition steered governmental terkibe will harm him more than idling in a suitable corner outside this business.

In any case, and out of pure vanity and teasing lust, I personally don't see that an election loss for the loyalists should be awarded by crowning a big moron of theirs as Prime Minister. Until next elections decide otherwise, no La Moustaqbali, la men b3eed wala men 2'arib, should see the Grand Serail from the inside, if opposition wins the elections.. But they can always beg for it, for the sake of "partnership"..

I will list a few facts that might convince you that there is no risk and no possibility of an international boycott in case the opposition wins:

1- There will still be a Lebanese President called Sleiman who represents the country... the same Sleiman whose election was welcomed and lauded by the same international community. Do you think the world public opinion will just believe them that all of a sudden Sleiman is now the head of a "terrorist" government?

2- Lebanon is not Gaza. Gaza survives primarily on international aid. Lebanon can get by on its own production. Gaza is smothered by Israel. Lebanon is not. There was an alternative to the Gaza government in a geographically separate and "protected" region, the West Bank that is. They could use that as their "fig-leaf" justification for imposing sanctions on the "terrorist" government of Gaza, not the Palestinian population.

There isn't such a region in Lebanon... not one that they could use as their fig leaf or one that they could protect. They had such region in 1989 with the Syrian Army protecting it... today, it is no more.

The only way to impose sanctions on Lebanon is to blatantly declare war against the whole Lebanese population. Then it becomes a different story...

3- The US administration will make no bold move anywhere before it gets a good handle on its sad economic state... which could easily take another 2 years... mish fadyeen 3a 7adan, trust me. If the US doesn't initiate such sanctions on Lebanon, which country do you expect to initiate them? France? UK? Poland, China, Russia?

Plus Obama operates differently than Bush, regardless if their foreign objectives are the same or not. Obama has chosen to take (at least initially) the diplomatic approach. He won't even contemplate imposing sanctions on a new country... he's probably looking at possible ways to remove such existing sanctions on other countries without risking being labeled as "soft on terrorism".

Last but not least, don't forget the US public opinion... they don't want to hear about another foreign confrontation... they don't have the patience for it at this stage... they even almost forgot about an ongoing confrontation in which their own troops are involved... and dying. They don't want to hear about Lebanon, good or bad... especially about a revenging the assassination of a billionaire PM whose name they can't even pronounce :)

It hasn't become obvious yet... but the US public doesn't even want to hear about Israel's "problems"... especially from their President. Do you think they will tolerate hearing about Lebanon from Obama?

Again, in the coming couple of years, the risk on Lebanon is that, from within, someone in power would help the international players "gift" Lebanon back to a regional player as a consolation prize in a comprehensive regional settlement.

So, if you want to worry, worry about having in power, inside Lebanon, those whose history shows clearly that they would sell the country.

Yes, the risk is in "not having FPM in power"... not the other way around.

It's very probable to see a repeat of 1990 or something along those lines if FPM is not in power.

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[Ashrafieh_LF]

After the June elections, do you want the winner to govern and for the opposition to oppose or would you rather have 1/3 mou3attil (regardless of who wins)?

[King Rami]

Originally Posted by Ashrafieh_LF

After the June elections, do you want the winner to govern and for the opposition to oppose or would you rather have 1/3 mou3attil (regardless of who wins)?

When we win, we will govern alone, since your masters saad el hariri and walid jumblat said that they won't join the government if they lose...

1/3 or 1/4 or 1/ba3ed el nachra... it doesn't matter, you'll watch the country rising while begging Aoun to take you with him in 2012

[Positive Balance]

Late reply, but. Tai, there's two little gems in your posts that no one's responded to yet. I'd like some more input on each.

Originally Posted by taifoon

But we should/shall never allow Lebanon to become another bullied Gaza. I think the opposition should as soon as is possible - if not already done- explore alternative international partners along with preparing a common economical plan and other "goodies" and start implementing its agenda without the mediocres interference and as soon as it wins elections and forms a government. People need a true experience of a Hariri (corruption)-less era, in order to be able to bury his memory where it belongs, and for good. Time for a Hariri sunset.

And you are correct: For this to succeed, FPM has a huge task ahead to lobby the international community, starting NOW!

Are the two bolded parts referring to the same international partners/community?

Originally Posted by taifoon

What is also a little disturbing is me sensing that there seems to exist a lack of synchronization on a common governing vision and procedure that should already be nailed down for immediate execution after a probable elections win, between the main opposition parties.

Exactly! I made a post earlier about economic plan, mainly because I thought it wouldn't be as controversial a topic as others, but you could include things like foreign relations as well. If it's already assumed that FPM and rest of M8 will remain a coalition whether they win or not, what will be their common political vision in areas such as economy, foreign relations, trade, environment, etc. etc.?

Lack of a clear economic manifesto for FPM for the coming elections is one thing, but equally important is the implications of M8 in power, given that if I vote for FPM and M8 wins, this coalition will have to finally show what are its political points of agreement and what the implications are of M8 in power rather than in opposition.

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

Late reply, but. Tai, there's two little gems in your posts that no one's responded to yet. I'd like some more input on each.Are the two bolded parts referring to the same international partners/community?Exactly! I made a post earlier about economic plan, mainly because I thought it wouldn't be as controversial a topic as others, but you could include things like foreign relations as well. If it's already assumed that FPM and rest of M8 will remain a coalition whether they win or not, what will be their common political vision in areas such as economy, foreign relations, trade, environment, etc. etc.?

Lack of a clear economic manifesto for FPM for the coming elections is one thing, but equally important is the implications of M8 in power, given that if I vote for FPM and M8 wins, this coalition will have to finally show what are its political points of agreement and what the implications are of M8 in power rather than in opposition.

Watch what is happening in the communication ministry... and the proposed solutions to our electricity problems... these are a prelude to what is going to happen in other ministries...

M8 is fully supportive of what is happening in those 2 ministries... and they will be fully supportive of what is to come in other ministries after June 7th.

Reason? Simple. What is happening in those 2 ministries benefits all citizens... from FPM, M8 or Feb 14... it doesn't exclude anyone and no one has been able to offer anything better.

Why would M8 oppose any such thing? Aren't they from this country like everyone else and benefiting from all that is being done like everyone else?

Even Feb14 haven't been able to oppose what's being done in these ministries... they would love to oppose it but haven't found anything to oppose yet... other than Gebran wanting to implement the Law they (Feb 14) passed about eavesdropping.

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[Positive Balance]

Originally Posted by Amirkani

Watch what is happening in the communication ministry... and the proposed solutions to our electricity problems... these are a prelude to what is going to happen in other ministries...

M8 is fully supportive of what is happening in those 2 ministries... and they will be fully supportive of what is to come in other ministries after June 7th.

Reason? Simple. What is happening in those 2 ministries benefits all citizens... from FPM, M8 or Feb 14... it doesn't exclude anyone and no one has been able to offer anything better.

Why would M8 oppose any such thing? Aren't they from this country like everyone else and benefiting from all that is being done like everyone else?

Even Feb14 haven't been able to oppose what's being done in these ministries... they would love to oppose it but haven't found anything to oppose yet... other than Gebran wanting to implement the Law they (Feb 14) passed about eavesdropping.

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Interesting, but:

1- this doesn't tell me anything about foreign relations;
2- this doesn't tell me anything about the actual plans for other areas. Can't deduce policies on apples by looking at policies on oranges. You're basically saying, "we are doing good work in these two ministries, therefore trust us that we will do good work in any ministry we are given."
3- there isn't just one way of doing things. You say that no one can complain since we are all benefiting, therefore we should elect FPM since even without a policy framework they will do well. Plus there is only 1 way of doing the right thing, correct, so what's the argument all about?
4- are you really saying that FPM policy goals are 100% in line with those of the rest of M8? And that whatever FPM wants to do, it will be the one and only way of doing something good for the country, and therefore the rest of M8 will automatically agree?

I think you're conflating two ideas. Even if I believe that FPM is doing good work in these two areas, why does that make it unnecessary for FPM to have a declared policy on anything else?

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

Interesting, but:

1- this doesn't tell me anything about foreign relations;

I answered about foreign relations in my previous post... my reply to Taifoon.

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

2- this doesn't tell me anything about the actual plans for other areas.

What areas?

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

Can't deduce policies on apples by looking at policies on oranges. You're basically saying, "we are doing good work in these two ministries, therefore trust us that we will do good work in any ministry we are given."

It's apples and apples... it's not an issue of the type of ministry, it's an issue of a mentality of hard work, honesty, the intention to work for the benefit of the people and the will to change any minister who doesn't... we have a large pool of professional talent in the Lebanese society.

Apply these criteria to any ministry and you will get the results you're seeing in the communication ministry. FPM requires these out of its ministers, as a minimum.

If you're looking for a list of things needed to be done in each ministry, plenty of politicians can give you that... but few will later implement any of it.

Besides, I didn't expect Gebran to know what the communications ministry would need before he got in there and saw for himself...

You don't expect Hmade to have willingly told Gebran how he was mismanaging the ministry? FPM has been excluded from power for a long time... no politician is going to tell FPM anything about any ministry... most politicians fear what FPM will discover once it's in power.

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

3- there isn't just one way of doing things.

I didn't say there is only one way of doing things. I said FPM has proven the way it does things is good.

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

You say that no one can complain since we are all benefiting,

Anyone can complain. You asked about the possibility of M8 not agreeing with what FPM might do. I replied that they won't... they haven't so far because what FPM is doing benefits the population at large and M8 is part of that population.

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

therefore we should elect FPM since even without a policy framework they will do well.

No, if you want to vote for FPM, vote for it based on its history and performance. As I said above, many political parties (FPM included probably) will provide you before the elections with great-sounding "general" plans... but half of them might be lying and the other half might be guessing. Again, it would be safer to base one's voting decision on the "character" of the political party, its history and its performance.

Let's suppose you're an economist and very honest... and we entrusted you with writing FPM's economic plan... other than the obvious generalities, don't you think you would be guessing now at what needs to be done in each ministry especially if the data and info are being withheld from you?

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

Plus there is only 1 way of doing the right thing, correct, so what's the argument all about?

I didn't say that... if you're talking about "the way" being how to implement things.

If "the way" means a type of mentality... then yes, there is only 1 way... the honest and hard-working way as I mentioned above.

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

4- are you really saying that FPM policy goals are 100% in line with those of the rest of M8?

No, definitely not. But there is an understanding of cooperation and consultation before major decision. So far, it has worked. And no FPM policy in government has been opposed. They voted against a couple FPM's proposals in parliament a couple of times but not in disagreement, rather due to timing.

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

And that whatever FPM wants to do, it will be the one and only way of doing something good for the country, and therefore the rest of M8 will automatically agree?

FPM will push its policies inside the government and expects its allies to support it... just as they expect FPM to support them. This is what alliances are all about. Are there going to be disagreements on some issue. Definitely. There has already been disagreements. But none of the magnitude to break the alliance.

On the other hand, FPM won't always disagree with its opponents either. And I hope that its opponents won't always disagree with FPM just for the heck of it.

But honestly, I don't see the point in talking about the obvious here. Is all of Feb14 always in agreement on all issues? Why are FPM and HA for example expected to be always in agreement? And if sometimes they're not, people expect them to start a civil war? There has been disagreements and they managed them quite well.

Originally Posted by Positive Balance

I think you're conflating two ideas. Even if I believe that FPM is doing good work in these two areas, why does that make it unnecessary for FPM to have a declared policy on anything else?

I am sure you've heard the famous saying "It's the economy, stupid!"

Here and in these elections, I can say "It's the character"... I'll leave the rest of it out since it doesn't apply to you :)

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[Kibitzer]

Originally Posted by Amirkani

I will list a few facts that might convince you that there is no risk and no possibility of an international boycott in case the opposition wins:

1- There will still be a Lebanese President called Sleiman who represents the country... the same Sleiman whose election was welcomed and lauded by the same international community. Do you think the world public opinion will just believe them that all of a sudden Sleiman is now the head of a "terrorist" government?

2- Lebanon is not Gaza. Gaza survives primarily on international aid. Lebanon can get by on its own production. Gaza is smothered by Israel. Lebanon is not. There was an alternative to the Gaza government in a geographically separate and "protected" region, the West Bank that is. They could use that as their "fig-leaf" justification for imposing sanctions on the "terrorist" government of Gaza, not the Palestinian population.

There isn't such a region in Lebanon... not one that they could use as their fig leaf or one that they could protect. They had such region in 1989 with the Syrian Army protecting it... today, it is no more.

The only way to impose sanctions on Lebanon is to blatantly declare war against the whole Lebanese population. Then it becomes a different story...

3- The US administration will make no bold move anywhere before it gets a good handle on its sad economic state... which could easily take another 2 years... mish fadyeen 3a 7adan, trust me. If the US doesn't initiate such sanctions on Lebanon, which country do you expect to initiate them? France? UK? Poland, China, Russia?

Plus Obama operates differently than Bush, regardless if their foreign objectives are the same or not. Obama has chosen to take (at least initially) the diplomatic approach. He won't even contemplate imposing sanctions on a new country... he's probably looking at possible ways to remove such existing sanctions on other countries without risking being labeled as "soft on terrorism".

Last but not least, don't forget the US public opinion... they don't want to hear about another foreign confrontation... they don't have the patience for it at this stage... they even almost forgot about an ongoing confrontation in which their own troops are involved... and dying. They don't want to hear about Lebanon, good or bad... especially about a revenging the assassination of a billionaire PM whose name they can't even pronounce :)

It hasn't become obvious yet... but the US public doesn't even want to hear about Israel's "problems"... especially from their President. Do you think they will tolerate hearing about Lebanon from Obama?

Again, in the coming couple of years, the risk on Lebanon is that, from within, someone in power would help the international players "gift" Lebanon back to a regional player as a consolation prize in a comprehensive regional settlement.

So, if you want to worry, worry about having in power, inside Lebanon, those whose history shows clearly that they would sell the country.

Yes, the risk is in "not having FPM in power"... not the other way around.

It's very probable to see a repeat of 1990 or something along those lines if FPM is not in power.

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Excellent post - I agree with almost everything here based on "how little we actually know about Obama".

He cares nothing about Lebanon, I don't think he has any interest at all in foreign affairs. He has a domestic agenda, and it's a very powerful one. He will not allow himself to be involved in the Lebanon problems. He will look for the "easy" way to bring "stability" to Lebanon IF he should be forced to do anything at all. Any "sanctions" are not even going to be on the table.

You did neglect a couple of very important issues.

I haven't been around here for months. I find it very interesting that M14 is saying they will refuse to participate in the government if M8 should win the election.
Very, very interesting.

The world has "changed" (love the hopeychangey) since last fall. It's going to take a while for everyone to get used to it, but one thing is for sure - assumptions based on several years ago have no reality to the world as it is today.

[Abou Sandal]

Originally Posted by Kibitzer

Excellent post - I agree with almost everything here based on "how little we actually know about Obama".

He cares nothing about Lebanon, I don't think he has any interest at all in foreign affairs. He has a domestic agenda, and it's a very powerful one. He will not allow himself to be involved in the Lebanon problems. He will look for the "easy" way to bring "stability" to Lebanon IF he should be forced to do anything at all. Any "sanctions" are not even going to be on the table.

You did neglect a couple of very important issues.

I haven't been around here for months. I find it very interesting that M14 is saying they will refuse to participate in the government if M8 should win the election.
Very, very interesting.

The world has "changed" (love the hopeychangey) since last fall. It's going to take a while for everyone to get used to it, but one thing is for sure - assumptions based on several years ago have no reality to the world as it is today.

Welcome back Kibbi...Care to elaborate a little more on the highlighted part of the post?

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by Kibitzer

You did neglect a couple of very important issues.

I am never neglectful... not one of my traits... you just haven't been "monitoring" my posts as closely as you used to... is the world "achanging"? :)

Originally Posted by Kibitzer

I haven't been around here for months. I find it very interesting that M14 is saying they will refuse to participate in the government if M8 should win the election.
Very, very interesting.

Welcome back... missed teasing you.

Not being neglectful, I addressed that issue specifically in the posts before the one you happened to monitor. :)

Originally Posted by Kibitzer

The world has "changed" (love the hopeychangey) since last fall.

Which world changed, yours or mine?

Originally Posted by Kibitzer

It's going to take a while for everyone to get used to it,

I am already used to it... I must not be "everyone". LOL

Originally Posted by Kibitzer

but one thing is for sure - assumptions based on several years ago have no reality to the world as it is today.

It depends how many years there are in "several"... if there are only 3 or 4 years, then you're absolutely right. If it's anywhere between 5 and 20, you might not be right... and the same assumptions of that era my come back to apply (and haunt us).

But don't you overload yourself with worries and concern. Dear, there is nothing to fear... FPM is here. :)

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