Post-elections government & the international community

[Abou Sandal]

Originally Posted by taifoon

Abou, when you govern on your own, you'll have all the powers to squeeze whoever "byetsayyad bel ma2'l 3aker" (nice cheesy one this ).. No fer3 mahboulet no nothing will be able to roam uncontrolled, among other things. So, how will our current agents manage to act external agents, when they will be relaxing on rocking chairs, playing arba3ta3sh w tarneeb together?

Halla2 if you want my opinion we could still squeeze them whether we are the majority or not

Actually i was rather thinking about something that looked like the Venezuelan scenario,where a corrupt and financially powerful opposition,would work with external powers,to cripple the government on the economic and financial level,(no military or paramilitary stunts this time),and try to undermine the stability of the country,till a point where it could cease power once again.One way or another.

I still remember how Hariri senior played with the Lebanese pound till a dollar would make almost 3000 LB,and created back then,a real financial threat followed with social chaos,in order to topple the Karame government.(PS to which extent this was done with Syrian approval still remains unclear)

So I was thinking of something of that sort...but on a much bigger scale.Something that the opposition would prefer to avoid.

Because if this should happen,and knowing GMA,and knowing HA,they would not hesitate to declare a legal war on them.Highly ranked personalities could be arrested...etc...etc...Which would lead to a real civil strife,either way.

Which also brings me to the corruption issues...And the war on corruption,that the opposition would rather prefer to conduct in a smooth way too.

As for the Gaza scenario...it has no ground whatsoever.No country can either legally or forcefully impose a blockade of any kind on Lebanon,unless it is ready to enter into a state of hot war with us,starting by shooting down our civilian planes and bombing our airports,sinking our ships and bombing our borders with Syria.At least to impose a blockade of the like of Gaza.

This is rather a war scenario,and it is much way over the topic of this thread,especially that,if Israel and the US decide to wage a war on Lebanon,they will just do it,whether the loyalists share or not the power.So the insistence is rather for another reason,IMHO.

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by roch10452

as i said somewhere else
how nice of them

March 14 is not asking for separatism, they are giving the opportunity for the opposition to rule the country for 4 years in case they win
very normal democratic behavior

but that doesn't explain why is Hezbo insisting on consensus even when the reply from 14 March was negative

come on, you can maybe force us out of the government, but seriously, force us in again!!!!

winta feyn, wel dunya feyn?

Did you really believe Saadoun when he said he wouldn't participate? He can't afford to leave his (business) interests in the care of the opposition.

Saadoun's 3antariyet have 2 purposes:

1- Mobilize (threaten) his base by saying if they lose the elections, he will opt to be fully out of government... which means, they (his base) can't benefit and suck the State dry like they have been doing for the past 17 years... and who knows, many of them might even have to pay for their past misdeeds that the opposition will undoubtedly expose. So basically, it's a veiled threat to his own supporters.

2- It is also his sneaky (and childish) way of telling the opposition that he wants the Premiership for his FM even if they lose the elections. Let's see how his naive mind might see things evolving:

- the opposition wins and Saad byotro2 7ardeh and says Feb 14 won't participate in the government.
- the opposition will be so scared that it will be begging him to change his mind about participating... w houweh bi kabber mnefiss... until the opposition caves in and says whatever you need, whatever you want... Premiership and even our first born :)

As for HA insisting on Feb 14's participation in case they lose... don't look too deep into it... not deeper than a political party saying before the elections "we're nice... we're not going to do to them like they did to us... and we didn't ask for ourselves what we are not willing to give to others". This helps them in the elections and it helps FPM... just as Saad saying he won't participate might help his chances.

As for Aoun, he saw it beneficial to be blunt about it: we will make them an offer... but we won't lose too much sleep over it if they reject our offer...

And this helps Aoun in the elections too... the hope of voters and prospect of seeing a new beginning without many of the corrupt ministers of the past... and voters already like what they saw from a handful of C&R bloc ministers... iza a handful w heyk, keef law shi malyoun? :)

Don't even worry about the international community... they're very pragmatic when it comes to dealing with whoever is in power... didn't I see many of their diplomats visiting Gaza lately and raising money for it? or am I dreaming?

As for FPM being in power, let me tell you this: the real danger on the Lebanese in the next four years is for FPM not to be in power.

With all the compromising going on internationally and that is likely to increase exponentially in the next years, it might not be too long before all those in the Feb 14 gang change their skin once more and try to sell the Lebanese, once more, to whoever agrees to let them maintain their stranglehold on the country... even if it's Syria, the evil they so much hate (today).

So yes, the true danger for the Lebanese is if FPM doesn't have the power means to stop them from selling the country, once more...

If you think Ammouneh, Geagea, Harb, Nassib Lahoud, Nadim Gemayel 3al 3anzou2a and Nayla Tweini are going to stop them, all I can tell you is "dream on... and good luck!".

------------------------

[orange infection]

Originally Posted by roch10452

could it be that the election statistics are showing the loss of the opposition, therefor asking for unity government will ensure their stay in a consensus like rule on Lebanon?

i think ennak majbour to participate with HA , u cant act like they don't exist ...... at least talama 3endoun sle7
ya ret btesma3 what your ally jumblat says everyday and then post , if u win la sama7 allah , he will be the first one to go to da7yeh and invite HA to the government

[roch10452]

Originally Posted by orange infection

i think ennak majbour to participate with HA , u cant act like they don't exist ...... at least talama 3endoun sle7
ya ret btesma3 what your ally jumblat says everyday and then post , if u win la sama7 allah , he will be the first one to go to da7yeh and invite HA to the government

inviting them to join is one thing
giving them veto power is another

what 14March are saying, they want neither if they loose

[roch10452]

Originally Posted by Amirkani

winta feyn, wel dunya feyn?

Did you really believe Saadoun when he said he wouldn't participate? He can't afford to leave his (business) interests in the care of the opposition.

Saadoun's 3antariyet have 2 purposes:

1- Mobilize (threaten) his base by saying if they lose the elections, he will opt to be fully out of government... which means, they (his base) can't benefit and suck the State dry like they have been doing for the past 17 years... and who knows, many of them might even have to pay for their past misdeeds that the opposition will undoubtedly expose. So basically, it's a veiled threat to his own supporters.

2- It is also his sneaky (and childish) way of telling the opposition that he wants the Premiership for his FM even if they lose the elections. Let's see how his naive mind might see things evolving:

- the opposition wins and Saad byotro2 7ardeh and says Feb 14 won't participate in the government.
- the opposition will be so scared that it will be begging him to change his mind about participating... w houweh bi kabber mnefiss... until the opposition caves in and says whatever you need, whatever you want... Premiership and even our first born :)

As for HA insisting on Feb 14's participation in case they lose... don't look too deep into it... not deeper than a political party saying before the elections "we're nice... we're not going to do to them like they did to us... and we didn't ask for ourselves what we are not willing to give to others". This helps them in the elections and it helps FPM... just as Saad saying he won't participate might help his chances.

As for Aoun, he saw it beneficial to be blunt about it: we will make them an offer... but we won't lose too much sleep over it if they reject our offer...

And this helps Aoun in the elections too... the hope of voters and prospect of seeing a new beginning without many of the corrupt ministers of the past... and voters already like what they saw from a handful of C&R bloc ministers... iza a handful w heyk, keef law shi malyoun? :)

Don't even worry about the international community... they're very pragmatic when it comes to dealing with whoever is in power... didn't I see many of their diplomats visiting Gaza lately and raising money for it? or am I dreaming?

As for FPM being in power, let me tell you this: the real danger on the Lebanese in the next four years is for FPM not to be in power.

With all the compromising going on internationally and that is likely to increase exponentially in the next years, it might not be too long before all those in the Feb 14 gang change their skin once more and try to sell the Lebanese, once more, to whoever agrees to let them maintain their stranglehold on the country... even if it's Syria, the evil they so much hate (today).

So yes, the true danger for the Lebanese is if FPM doesn't have the power means to stop them from selling the country, once more...

If you think Ammouneh, Geagea, Harb, Nassib Lahoud, Nadim Gemayel 3al 3anzou2a and Nayla Tweini are going to stop them, all I can tell you is "dream on... and good luck!".

------------------------

you are trying to predict the future, I don't want to do that
I am asking about now, why is Hezbo INSISTING on consensus

you have a non-democratic way of blaming everything wrong on your political rivals, only you and your allies can save Lebanon? fine, take the government and do your work

we believe that if we loose the election it means one thing:
The people didn't like our way of doing things, and they want to try something else for the next 4 years
you are probably that choice, its your responsibility to govern the country and rule it the way you proposed to the people for those 4 years.

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by roch10452

you are trying to predict the future, I don't want to do that
I am asking about now, why is Hezbo INSISTING on consensus

you have a non-democratic way of blaming everything wrong on your political rivals, only you and your allies can save Lebanon? fine, take the government and do your work

we believe that if we loose the election it means one thing:
The people didn't like our way of doing things, and they want to try something else for the next 4 years
you are probably that choice, its your responsibility to govern the country and rule it the way you proposed to the people for those 4 years.

It seems you didn't get what I said. HA is being polite... it helps them in the elections... and it helps FPM... don't misconstrue social politeness for fear or weakness.

If the Fab Febs don't want to participate, we have no problem or shortage of talent to govern the country without them... they can sit and watch how a country should be governed to the benefit of the people.

And if they want to participate, 2ahlan wa sahlan... the only difference would be that this time around we will force them to govern according to the Law, the State Law, not Hariri's law... and this time, they will have to produce for the people, not steal from them...

If they don't produce, we kick them out. If they steal, we throw them in jail.

Change is upon us.

-------------------

[Tsunami67]

Originally Posted by roch10452

we believe that if we loose the election it means one thing:
The people didn't like our way of doing things

DO u really have any doubt about it?
Lebanese have been cursing your way since ever... please wake up!!!!

[taifoon]

Originally Posted by Abou Sandal

Halla2 if you want my opinion we could still squeeze them whether we are the majority or not

Actually i was rather thinking about something that looked like the Venezuelan scenario,where a corrupt and financially powerful opposition,would work with external powers,to cripple the government on the economic and financial level,(no military or paramilitary stunts this time),and try to undermine the stability of the country,till a point where it could cease power once again.One way or another.

You do have a point, generally speaking. I find it unlikely however that a small financial shark like Hariri will have more than less marginal impact on our national economy, if he now chooses to develop his sense of mafiosity into that direction that is. Anyway, such dirty tricks do not usually pass unnoticed, and most likely he'll be shooting at his own toes. Also, he's probably the last one to want to defy the many monitoring eyes who only hunger to x-ray his, his family's and his party's past and current underwear with regard to the huge treasury thefts they supervised under 15 years.

Originally Posted by Amirkani

winta feyn, wel dunya feyn?

Did you really believe Saadoun when he said he wouldn't participate? He can't afford to leave his (business) interests in the care of the opposition.

Saadoun's 3antariyet have 2 purposes:

1- Mobilize (threaten) his base by saying if they lose the elections, he will opt to be fully out of government... which means, they (his base) can't benefit and suck the State dry like they have been doing for the past 17 years... and who knows, many of them might even have to pay for their past misdeeds that the opposition will undoubtedly expose. So basically, it's a veiled threat to his own supporters.

2- It is also his sneaky (and childish) way of telling the opposition that he wants the Premiership for his FM even if they lose the elections. Let's see how his naive mind might see things evolving:

- the opposition wins and Saad byotro2 7ardeh and says Feb 14 won't participate in the government.
- the opposition will be so scared that it will be begging him to change his mind about participating... w houweh bi kabber mnefiss... until the opposition caves in and says whatever you need, whatever you want... Premiership and even our first born :)

As for HA insisting on Feb 14's participation in case they lose... don't look too deep into it... not deeper than a political party saying before the elections "we're nice... we're not going to do to them like they did to us... and we didn't ask for ourselves what we are not willing to give to others". This helps them in the elections and it helps FPM... just as Saad saying he won't participate might help his chances.

Valuable input, maybe so.. However, I'd rather go for the safe than sorry approach, when it comes to dealing with the Americans Lebanese agenda and probable scenarios thereof, at least in regard to the previous administration. With this new one, let's admit we really don't have a clue, yet.

What I have in mind is the well understood late American doctrine which, at least till Bush left, was determined to fight the "axis of evil", and in which Hizbollah was indirectly included, the same way Hamas was and still is. This is neither meant to magnify the worries nor to belittle our status, when we compare Lebanon to Gaza. It's only about awareness of what could come, and for the sake of being well prepared, just in case. Therefore the need for a good and ready to implement common contingency plan among the opposition parties, which includes clear economical and diplomatic moves.

What is also a little disturbing is me sensing that there seems to exist a lack of synchronization on a common governing vision and procedure that should already be nailed down for immediate execution after a probable elections win, between the main opposition parties.

I actually don't believe Sa3doun would go out publicly and reject a PM post, a couple of times so far, had not someone from the opposition whispered such proposal into his ears (and I do believe such proposal was serious and was not only to balloon his saksouke).
Could be that someone in the opposition still values a country wide sectarian tawafouq more than anything else, and sees such move as the needed anaesthetics to accomplish this.. Could also be that there exist regional factors, in which economical ditto plays heavily in when assessing future scenarios. (One of those could be a coming war with Israel. Following such war, economical Saudi and other khaliji and international aid packages would be less likely to be poured into a pure Hizb-Amal-FPM government coalition..)

I agree that for Sa3doun, showing a cute 7erden attitude towards a presumed winning opposition's stretched hand, might earn him few extra election votes. Nonetheless, I think him getting inside an opposition steered governmental terkibe will harm him more than idling in a suitable corner outside this business.

In any case, and out of pure vanity and teasing lust, I personally don't see that an election loss for the loyalists should be awarded by crowning a big moron of theirs as Prime Minister. Until next elections decide otherwise, no La Moustaqbali, la men b3eed wala men 2'arib, should see the Grand Serail from the inside, if opposition wins the elections.. But they can always beg for it, for the sake of "partnership"..

[FBM]

On the grand scale of things 4 years is nothing, the opposition let us do things our way(sort of), let see if they can (if they win) do a better job... 4 years is not the end of the world, if we lose in 2009 then we will be even more prepared in 2013 (if my math is right) in 2013 we would know our weakpoints and strong points, and if you win in 2009 you would also reveal yours and we would be back in square one...

[Nasser]

The normal democratic elections would let the winning team rule for 4 years. Therefore, if current opposition wins , I insist that they should rule ALONE .. and the opposite is true in case the current loyalists win .... why?
that's the reason elections are held each 4 years , the people will then judge the winning team , if the situation went to the better more people will vote for them , if not they will vote for the other team ... not really hard to understand.
So technically , in the ways how things are shown , M14 are backing the democracy ( who wins rule ) but still no one can really know if they have bad intentions behind these declarations that they won't enter the gov if they lose , one can see it as a threat of a close to GAZA-scenario and it would be right to see it - but we can't read into intentions .. unfortunately.