In the event of an FPM/HA/SSNP/MARADA election victory, they should be allowed to govern unobstructed, without the gimmick 'tawafouk', and the current majority should step aside and let them govern. Countries cannot grow and prosper on stalemates. Stalemates only hinder growth and encourage strife.
And if Jame3a Islamiye/PSP/Murr/Future win, you will want them to rule on their on?
Hizballa's main concern since 2005 was to try as much as possible to avoid the Sunni/Shi3a conflict it is being dragged into since then. So asking the loyalists to join in a national unity government after the elections is another Lebanese "tout le monde a gagne" scenario, where from one side you get your majority to rule, and from another side you keep your opposition close.
Plus, this is nice before the elections, to show that Hizballa is asking for national consensus, and to show that the Hariri clan are asking for seperatism.
Yes, that is good. Bass lately, we have been hearing an increasing crescendo from Hariri and other loyalists enno ma baddon. Tayyeb, if so, lei hal adde msharda2in the opposition to have them in?
One can argue that, based on an unfair electoral law, the so called current majority does not in fact reflect a fair representation of a winning political block over another, therefore the past opposition's insistence on partnership in governing, based on the tawafouqiyya spirit blabla. However, if the opposition did not insist on the partnership thingee then, no loyalist would have cared about it anyway, and insisted on the opposition to participate, and the flawed system will still have rolled unaffected.
And this is actually what might happen in the next elections, but in a reversed way: Elections will be based on at least a more fair electoral law, and the coming minority (now the current loyalist majority) keeps insisting on not wanting to participate in the government. Hard to find a better opportunity to expose the uselessness of those tribal-feudal-corrupt creations and to make them obsolete and superfluous for generations to come. So, Lei kell hal shadd fiyoun then?
The "Gaza effect" is not the reason why the opposition is asking the loyalists to share with it the power.
There is a more serious reason behind that.But it remains unclear.Maybe just to neutralize it and prevent it from being effective as an external agent.
But i think it's more complicated than that.
Abou, when you govern on your own, you'll have all the powers to squeeze whoever "byetsayyad bel ma2'l 3aker" (nice cheesy one this ).. No fer3 mahboulet no nothing will be able to roam uncontrolled, among other things. So, how will our current agents manage to act external agents, when they will be relaxing on rocking chairs, playing arba3ta3sh w tarneeb together?
March 14 is not asking for separatism, they are giving the opportunity for the opposition to rule the country for 4 years in case they win
very normal democratic behavior
As you said somewhere else, how nice of them
Quote:
Originally Posted by roch10452
but that doesn't explain why is Hezbo insisting on consensus even when the reply from 14 March was negative
come on, you can maybe force us out of the government, but seriously, force us in again!!!!
Dear Roch, even in USA, the so called mother of all democracies, the speaches before election day are one thing, and what happens after the elections is another thing.
Well first I don't believe that Hariri & Co. will really decline from participating in the government in case of an opposition win. Those people are there in order to sit on chairs and do their own work. I bet with you from today, that if the opposition wins, and offers seats in the government for the Hariri and Co., they will be more than glad to take them.
And then, sine we are in a democratic mood now, please don't talk about someone forcing anything in, or anything out.
Yes, that is good. Bass lately, we have been hearing an increasing crescendo from Hariri and other loyalists enno ma baddon. Tayyeb, if so, lei hal adde msharda2in the opposition to have them in?
One can argue that, based on an unfair electoral law, the so called current majority does not in fact reflect a fair representation of a winning political block over another, therefore the past opposition's insistence on partnership in governing, based on the tawafouqiyya spirit blabla. However, if the opposition did not insist on the partnership thingee then, no loyalist would have cared about it anyway, and insisted on the opposition to participate, and the flawed system will still have rolled unaffected.
And this is actually what might happen in the next elections, but in a reversed way: Elections will be based on at least a more fair electoral law, and the coming minority (now the current loyalist majority) keeps insisting on not wanting to participate in the government. Hard to find a better opportunity to expose the uselessness of those tribal-feudal-corrupt creations and to make them obsolete and superfluous for generations to come. So, Lei kell hal shadd fiyoun then?
My interpretation is that this is all now just electoral speaches, which will have no real meaning after the elections is done. Each one is saying what will help him motivate the people to vote for him. Nothing more and nothing less.
My interpretation is that this is all now just electoral speaches, which will have no real meaning after the elections is done. Each one is saying what will help him motivate the people to vote for him. Nothing more and nothing less.
The moment March 14 replied they wont participate, opposition should find something else to sell
The moment March 14 replied they wont participate, opposition should find something else to sell
but it is insisting on consensus, Hezbo and Berri
what is Aoun opinion?
Since he hasn't mentioned it yet, Aoun seems to be more comfortable than his allies with the thought about the loyalists being less of a problem if they are totally out of business, for a change.
You have to look at it from Aoun's perspective to understand why: Save for their current christian servants who lately were brought in for decoration and for Berri's occasional partnership in thievery, it was the LA Moustaqbal people who exclusively have been running this country bankrupt, non stop since 20 years ago. In his solitude you can imagine Aoun's relief when he pictures them parading out in masses, while showing this country's institutions the width of their shoulders.
You said it all Seek.. Here's a superfluous reply for the sake of kicking up the topic. Good topic worth some reflections.
Lately, indirect threats have been cautiously relayed to us, mostly by various loyalist channels, about the consequences Lebanon will face if the opposition wins the elections. Those threats have varied in nature, from economic sanctions by the Saudis and other international financial organs, to withdrawn promises about American military aids, to a right out another devastating Israeli war etc ..
One can sense a certain worry among the opposition ranks that, in the case of an election win, the opposition and consequently Lebanon, might face a similar Gaza treatment by the so called "international community", after Hamas won the elections against Abbas. Seen from the opposition's perspective, insisting, or preferring, to have loyalist - meaning Hariri- participation in an opposition led government will soften the impact of its power overtake on the so called international community, meaning USA & Saudi co, by spicing it with those elements .
On the other hand and armed with this knowledge, the loyalists will try and milk the maximum out of those threats up till the last minute before the elections dices are thrown. Their tactic will go along their foreign masters instructions, namely to never give in for the democratic charade, but rather undermine the oppositions ground, even before it set foot in the government by simply playing the "boumieh"'s role blaming, à la Abbas, the opposition's "western-hated nature", for the punishment it deserves, and also might get.
But we should/shall never allow Lebanon to become another bullied Gaza. I think the opposition should as soon as is possible - if not already done- explore alternative international partners along with preparing a common economical plan and other "goodies" and start implementing its agenda without the mediocres interference and as soon as it wins elections and forms a government. People need a true experience of a Hariri (corruption)-less era, in order to be able to bury his memory where it belongs, and for good. Time for a Hariri sunset.
And you are correct: For this to succeed, FPM has a huge task ahead to lobby the international community, starting NOW!
Thanks Tai.
HA insisting on Hariri to join might be due to more than one reason. The Gaza-like scenario could be one of them, the other could be the lack of economic planning on the opposition's side. It is true that the opposition has done a fairly decent job in the ministries it took charge of, especially the telecom one, however no economic plan (that extends beyond a couple of years) has ever been presented. By the way, Positive Balance had a thread about the issue a while ago. Unfortunately, no specific replies were posted.
As for the Sunni / Shiaa strife, I think this is far-fetched. Asking Hariri to join the government to prevent the strife is a long shot.
It's highly likely that the loyalists will opt out; again, nothing makes one side happier than seeing the other getting screwed. Along those lines, the obvious step from HA is to reduce its ministers to the bare minimum and spread the wealth around the allies. A government with 10 FPM MPs can be a pretty good deal. Hence was my question on FPM's role internationally. How possible is it for FPM to make the case for the Lebanese government not being part of "the axis of evil."
Brushing off consequences of international pressure is immature in my opinion. Whether the scenario itself is possible can certainly be questioned, especially with a new administration that is unlikely to pursue radical policies early on.
HA insisting on Hariri to join might be due to more than one reason. The Gaza-like scenario could be one of them, the other could be the lack of economic planning on the opposition's side. It is true that the opposition has done a fairly decent job in the ministries it took charge of, especially the telecom one, however no economic plan (that extends beyond a couple of years) has ever been presented. By the way, Positive Balance had a thread about the issue a while ago. Unfortunately, no specific replies were posted.
Gaza-like scenario is unprobable IMO. I mean the regional context differs with a change in the US administration, talks with Syria and Iran and Lebanon isn't an occupied state either. Add to that if Lebanon gains some political stability, foreign countries would be more than eager to invest in Lebanon as it remains an unexplored market with a lot of hidden potential.
Regarding the economic plan, there is one under preparation but it is still to be published. It will be like the 2005's program but remastered abording rather concrete points than the usual gibberish. Expect it soon enough. I guess the short-term prevails to gain some stability then after that, yakhla2 el Allah ma la ta3lamoun, we could barely predict what would happen in 6 months, let alone a couple of years as you may never know if another war is casted on us or triggered, you take your pick.
Quote:
As for the Sunni / Shiaa strife, I think this is far-fetched. Asking Hariri to join the government to prevent the strife is a long shot.
I think this is a big reason why they are stressing on this point. In the last 3 years, there has been jurisprudence regarding this matter, marketed under the sauce of the national pact and 3aysh moushtarak, it would be hypocritical from the opposition's part not to offer what they preach. Soon or enough, there should be a clearer answer on this point once the constitutional council sets back in place. Even Aoun is willing to go for it, he was asked the question today :
Quote:
It's highly likely that the loyalists will opt out; again, nothing makes one side happier than seeing the other getting screwed. Along those lines, the obvious step from HA is to reduce its ministers to the bare minimum and spread the wealth around the allies. A government with 10 FPM MPs can be a pretty good deal. Hence was my question on FPM's role internationally. How possible is it for FPM to make the case for the Lebanese government not being part of "the axis of evil."
Brushing off consequences of international pressure is immature in my opinion. Whether the scenario itself is possible can certainly be questioned, especially with a new administration that is unlikely to pursue radical policies early on.
You are mostly right about HA's share in the government, it will most probably remain the same as now. FPM would always remain a buffer regarding international community. FPM has a lot of ties in Europe mainly so I don't think it will be much of a problem as long the next government could give them some guarantees and for the US, they would probably adopt a passive reaction, they've got other things to worry about for now. As for the rest of the world, it would be a domino effect if some influential countries would increase their cooperation with Lebanon.
In the past few months, some Feb14 memebers have repeated that, in the event of an 'opposition' win in the elections, 'the majority' will not participate in forming the government.
In contrast, members of the 'opposition', mostly HA-affiliated politicians, have repeated the necessity of the majority's presence in the government for 'national unity' and 'partnership' reasons.
Knowing how in Lebanon, nothing would make one side happier than seeing the other side getting screwed, one can easily read through the cheesy lines of political demagogy. Do you think that, in the event of an opposition win on June 7th, an FPM&HA-led government may face the fate of the Hamas government?
How should the current opposition play its cards if the current majority opts out? Will FPM swipe an important number of ministries, [finally] cashing in the price of its alliance with HA since 2006?
Wining the majority of the Parliament by the opposition will definitly lead them to have decisive say in government formation. Given the local and regional circumstances, the opt out by the current majority from participating in the government will not harm the opposition as compared to 2 or 7 yrs back. USA, seems to try new path to its hegemony in the middleeast by offering more carrots to different regional players. The regional powers are also trying to offer each others carrots and this is evident by the warm relaitonship among the conflicting sides, namely Saudi/Egypt vs. Syria and less extent Qatar. These regional powers will not jeopardize their warming relationship with Syria for the sake of the nature of Lebanese government. The job of opposition, is to insure a government structure that is not confrontational to regional nor international powers. Also, not to forget that opposition priority is assure the Sunni popoluation that they are sidelined to avoid any setback fermented in that community by many players. in such scenario, FPM can play a major role in bringing a non-confrontational PM and there are many to calm fears of local and regional Sunni powers. On the other side, FPM had shown in their recent experinece in the government offices that they are capable of bringing efficiency and accountability in their missions and that need to have more focus and opposition should give FPM a leading role in such area. Additionally, the current majority effect on regional and international scences has lost significant leverage and can no longer sway the international community to their side at every event and this fact could useful to use when considering the distribution of power among opposition and others if any. HA will definitly take a behind the scene role and work accordingly with other opposition. AS long as there is agreement on the broder issues facing Lebanon HA can survive without the help of the Lebanese official entity.
Quote:
On the other hand, should FPM step up on the international front now and try to strengthen relations with the international community?
Your input is appreciated.
[/quote]
FPM, can be a major opposition entity that can handle such task. not to repeat the mistake of Emile Lahoud when he formed a government without Hariri Sr. and they faced lot of sanctions from regional and international powers. At that time Hariri Sr. has good influence on lot of regional and international players; KSA, Egypt and France. This is not the case for the current majority and the current events in the coming future might as well not help them.
FPM has relationship with Europe and middleeast and probably somehwat with the USA but having them in the forefront forging and assuring a weary international community is to Lebanon advanatge given their credential and history. And if FPM can manage to coordinate their efforts with a powerful PM acceptable by most that will make their job easier.
overall, hariri jr. and his coalition know very well that their influence in having sympathy of regional power is shrinking and will not be always guaranteed by these regional powers. When it comes down to it, things might change and till ninety something days and the coming Arab summit things will be clearer for the majority and such talk might as well be forgotten by them.
2nd March 2009
).. No fer3 mahboulet no nothing will be able to roam uncontrolled, among other things. So, how will our current agents manage to act external agents, when they will be relaxing on rocking chairs, playing arba3ta3sh w tarneeb together?
