Post-elections government & the international community

[SeekNirvana]

In the past few months, some Feb14 memebers have repeated that, in the event of an 'opposition' win in the elections, 'the majority' will not participate in forming the government.

In contrast, members of the 'opposition', mostly HA-affiliated politicians, have repeated the necessity of the majority's presence in the government for 'national unity' and 'partnership' reasons.

Knowing how in Lebanon, nothing would make one side happier than seeing the other side getting screwed, one can easily read through the cheesy lines of political demagogy. Do you think that, in the event of an opposition win on June 7th, an FPM&HA-led government may face the fate of the Hamas government?

How should the current opposition play its cards if the current majority opts out? Will FPM swipe an important number of ministries, [finally] cashing in the price of its alliance with HA since 2006?

On the other hand, should FPM step up on the international front now and try to strengthen relations with the international community?

Your input is appreciated.

[taifoon]

You said it all Seek.. Here's a superfluous reply for the sake of kicking up the topic. Good topic worth some reflections.

Lately, indirect threats have been cautiously relayed to us, mostly by various loyalist channels, about the consequences Lebanon will face if the opposition wins the elections. Those threats have varied in nature, from economic sanctions by the Saudis and other international financial organs, to withdrawn promises about American military aids, to a right out another devastating Israeli war etc ..

One can sense a certain worry among the opposition ranks that, in the case of an election win, the opposition and consequently Lebanon, might face a similar Gaza treatment by the so called "international community", after Hamas won the elections against Abbas. Seen from the opposition's perspective, insisting, or preferring, to have loyalist - meaning Hariri- participation in an opposition led government will soften the impact of its power overtake on the so called international community, meaning USA & Saudi co, by spicing it with those elements .

On the other hand and armed with this knowledge, the loyalists will try and milk the maximum out of those threats up till the last minute before the elections dices are thrown. Their tactic will go along their foreign masters instructions, namely to never give in for the democratic charade, but rather undermine the oppositions ground, even before it set foot in the government by simply playing the "boumieh"'s role blaming, à la Abbas, the opposition's "western-hated nature", for the punishment it deserves, and also might get.

But we should/shall never allow Lebanon to become another bullied Gaza. I think the opposition should as soon as is possible - if not already done- explore alternative international partners along with preparing a common economical plan and other "goodies" and start implementing its agenda without the mediocres interference and as soon as it wins elections and forms a government. People need a true experience of a Hariri (corruption)-less era, in order to be able to bury his memory where it belongs, and for good. Time for a Hariri sunset.

And you are correct: For this to succeed, FPM has a huge task ahead to lobby the international community, starting NOW!

[GMA forever]

This theory is just another propaganda issue invented by Hariri and his allies in order to scare the people more and lead them to vote for him.

Lebanon will never be like Gaza!

What kind of sanctions are they talking about? Sanctions by the Saudis? He He, if they mean they will stop the millions of dollars which Saudi Arabia is paying Lebanon monthly, well ya obbare those millions never reached the Lebanese people anyway, if ever they were there, they went directly to the pocket of Sa3do and his Sayoura.
If by sanctions they mean that the horny Saudi male tourists will stop coming to Lebanon in order to live La Vida Loca, well ya hek sanctions ya bala. At least we clean a part of our dirty sad situation in Lebanon.
American military aid? He He, khalliloun yeha please, we don't need another broken disfunctional military vehicles, that the americans didn't want to bring back to the US because their shipment will cost more than their real price.
Another Israeli war? This is always a threat regardless. In 2006 Sanyoura was the prime minister and had a mainly proAmerican ministry and nevertheless Israel launched its dirtiest war against us. This reason is not valid at all. The only thing I can say here, is that thank god we have Hizballa, so that Israel's future wars over Lebanon won't be just a walk in the park.

As for the second part of the topic, FPM will always continue to play a constructive role in building bridges with both the international community and the arabic and muslim world. This is our core, and this is our spirit. I am sure that this role by FPM will bring a lot of hopeful air to the region, and will affect everyone positively, in case the opposition won and they formed their government.

[taifoon]

Originally Posted by GMA forever

This theory is just another propaganda issue invented by Hariri and his allies in order to scare the people more and lead them to vote for him.

Lebanon will never be like Gaza!

What kind of sanctions are they talking about? Sanctions by the Saudis? He He, if they mean they will stop the millions of dollars which Saudi Arabia is paying Lebanon monthly, well ya obbare those millions never reached the Lebanese people anyway, if ever they were there, they went directly to the pocket of Sa3do and his Sayoura.
If by sanctions they mean that the horny Saudi male tourists will stop coming to Lebanon in order to live La Vida Loca, well ya hek sanctions ya bala. At least we clean a part of our dirty sad situation in Lebanon.
American military aid? He He, khalliloun yeha please, we don't need another broken disfunctional military vehicles, that the americans didn't want to bring back to the US because they will cost more than their real price.
Another Israeli war? This is always a threat regardless. In 2006 Sanyoura was the prime minister and had a mainly proAmerican ministry and nevertheless Israel launched its dirtiest war against us. This reason is not valid at all. The only thing I can say here, is that thank god we have Hizballa, so that Israel's future wars over Lebanon won't be just a walk in the park.

As for the second part of the topic, FPM will always continue to play a constructive role in building bridges with both the international community and the arabic and muslim world. This is our core, and this is our spirit. I am sure that this role by FPM will bring a lot of hopeful air to the region, and will affect everyone positively, in case the opposition won and they formed their government.

That's the spirit I like.

Tell me however, why do some opposition members, mostly Hizbollahi, still ask - soon beg - for a loyalist participation in the government, when we peel away the dandy "brotherhood, partnership & national unity" talk?

[PFC]

when saadouldine and before him his daddy (the only or the holy shahid) and the bunch of 14ers were in power we had wars,crimes,assassinations,50 billions debt,strikes,foreigners ruling the country,occupation armies,etc,etc,etc,
if the lebanese want then to stay in power either they are donkeys or maybe donkeys.

[GMA forever]

Originally Posted by taifoon

That's the spirit I like.

Tell me however, why do some opposition members, mostly Hizbollahi, still ask - soon beg - for a loyalist participation in the government, when we peel away the dandy "brotherhood, partnership & national unity" talk?

Hizballa's main concern since 2005 was to try as much as possible to avoid the Sunni/Shi3a conflict it is being dragged into since then. So asking the loyalists to join in a national unity government after the elections is another Lebanese "tout le monde a gagne" scenario, where from one side you get your majority to rule, and from another side you keep your opposition close.

Plus, this is nice before the elections, to show that Hizballa is asking for national consensus, and to show that the Hariri clan are asking for seperatism.

[Abou Sandal]

The "Gaza effect" is not the reason why the opposition is asking the loyalists to share with it the power.

There is a more serious reason behind that.But it remains unclear.Maybe just to neutralize it and prevent it from being effective as an external agent.

But i think it's more complicated than that.

[roch10452]

Originally Posted by GMA forever

Hizballa's main concern since 2005 was to try as much as possible to avoid the Sunni/Shi3a conflict it is being dragged into since then. So asking the loyalists to join in a national unity government after the elections is another Lebanese "tout le monde a gagne" scenario, where from one side you get your majority to rule, and from another side you keep your opposition close.

Plus, this is nice before the elections, to show that Hizballa is asking for national consensus, and to show that the Hariri clan are asking for seperatism.

as i said somewhere else
how nice of them

March 14 is not asking for separatism, they are giving the opportunity for the opposition to rule the country for 4 years in case they win
very normal democratic behavior

but that doesn't explain why is Hezbo insisting on consensus even when the reply from 14 March was negative

come on, you can maybe force us out of the government, but seriously, force us in again!!!!

[roch10452]

Originally Posted by Abou Sandal

The "Gaza effect" is not the reason why the opposition is asking the loyalists to share with it the power.

There is a more serious reason behind that.But it remains unclear.Maybe just to neutralize it and prevent it from being effective as an external agent.

But i think it's more complicated than that.

could it be that the election statistics are showing the loss of the opposition, therefor asking for unity government will ensure their stay in a consensus like rule on Lebanon?

[Greg Davis]

In the event of an FPM/HA/SSNP/MARADA election victory, they should be allowed to govern unobstructed, without the gimmick 'tawafouk', and the current majority should step aside and let them govern. Countries cannot grow and prosper on stalemates. Stalemates only hinder growth and encourage strife.