New Order, New Alliances

[The Jade]

The cards are being newly dealt as we speak, some of them will remain in the same hands, but others will change:


1) An important new player, the president of the republic Michel Sleiman.
A lot of people will be shifting towards him and new alliances will be born

2) 2 christian heavyweights are against him, FPM and LF-Kataeb-Ahrar-Ketleh-Epsilons


Tachnag is more likely to lean towards the president as they always do, but the FPM fought for the armenian's rights for the past year and especially in Doha, so they most likely won't leave him.

In Metn we should expect an FPM-Tachnag-Sleiman and maybe Murr alliance

Jbeil, Kesrwan, Baabda would be FPM-Sleiman

Beirut would be FPM-Tachnag-Massoud el Achkar and maybe 7arakit el cha3eb (which I hope not)



On the other hand, I don't see christian independants like Boutros Harb, Gaby Murr, Nassib Lahoud or any of the Kornet Chehwan dudes with the march 14th alliance again.

Harb has already claimed that he was no longer with the alliance and Hariri has deceived most of them by not listening to them.

So there might be this block comprised of LFs, Kataeb, Harb, Lahoud and epsilons who would battle against the FPM alliance and the Hariri alliance.

Either way the LF alliance might not be with the Hariris completely but they most probably will lean towards them, thus giving them more maneuvering.


What'd you think?

[Dry Ice]

I think that Michel el Murr is an important card in Matn..

[The Jade]

Originally Posted by Dry Ice

I think that Michel el Murr is an important card in Matn..

Yup, forgot this guy too......Eventhough I would prefer not to see him on FPM's list again

[L'arbalette]

Originally Posted by The Jade

The cards are being newly dealt as we speak, some of them will remain in the same hands, but others will change:


1) An important new player, the president of the republic Michel Sleiman.
A lot of people will be shifting towards him and new alliances will be born

2) 2 christian heavyweights are against him, FPM and LF-Kataeb-Ahrar-Ketleh-Epsilons


Tachnag is more likely to lean towards the president as they always do, but the FPM fought for the armenian's rights for the past year and especially in Doha, so they most likely won't leave him.

In Metn we should expect an FPM-Tachnag-Sleiman and maybe Murr alliance

Jbeil, Kesrwan, Baabda would be FPM-Sleiman

Beirut would be FPM-Tachnag-Massoud el Achkar and maybe 7arakit el cha3eb (which I hope not)



On the other hand, I don't see christian independants like Boutros Harb, Gaby Murr, Nassib Lahoud or any of the Kornet Chehwan dudes with the march 14th alliance again.

Harb has already claimed that he was no longer with the alliance and Hariri has deceived most of them by not listening to them.

So there might be this block comprised of LFs, Kataeb, Harb, Lahoud and epsilons who would battle against the FPM alliance and the Hariri alliance.

Either way the LF alliance might not be with the Hariris completely but they most probably will lean towards them, thus giving them more maneuvering.


What'd you think?

Why not turn the table and have GMS part of FPM? Why not him the next leader of FPM? That would be a way to resolve the problem ;-)

I mean, do we want to eat grapes or kill the "natour"? If he is willing to, per GMA's comment, take the lead in establishing the new Lebanon we dream of, then why not have him within FPM?

I guess a clear indication will be his "ministers" in the cabinet. If he gets Elias el Murr, etc. then we're not heading in that direction. If he chooses for instance Georges Corm, Nadim Lteif?, Pierre Daccache?, Youssef Sa3dallah el Khoury, Mikhael el Daher, etc. story could be different

[The Jade]

Originally Posted by L'arbalette

Why not turn the table and have GMS part of FPM? Why not him the next leader of FPM? That would be a way to resolve the problem ;-)

I mean, do we want to eat grapes or kill the "natour"? If he is willing to, per GMA's comment, take the lead in establishing the new Lebanon we dream of, then why not have him within FPM?

I guess a clear indication will be his "ministers" in the cabinet. If he gets Elias el Murr, etc. then we're not heading in that direction. If he chooses for instance Georges Corm, Nadim Lteif?, Pierre Daccache?, Youssef Sa3dallah el Khoury, Mikhael el Daher, etc. story could be different

Sleiman is weak, but his position will give him some sort of weight especially in the conservative christian vote.


FPM is a progressist party with its own structure, we don't need Sleiman here.

He can only be an electoral ally, no more, no less

[Ptah]

FPM should stick with Marada and Sleiman Franjiyyeh, breaking this alliance would be a disaster for FPM.

[L'arbalette]

Originally Posted by The Jade

Sleiman is weak, but his position will give him some sort of weight especially in the conservative christian vote.


FPM is a progressist party with its own structure, we don't need Sleiman here.

He can only be an electoral ally, no more, no less

Wether we like it or not, he is a president of the republic, and there is only one for 6 years...

Do you want GMS with us or against us for the next 6 years? Why not make sure we get him with us and ensure he is aligned with our objectives...

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by The Jade

The cards are being newly dealt as we speak, some of them will remain in the same hands, but others will change:

So, who is going to the opposition or minority and who is going to be the majority from now on??????????????

[The Jade]

Originally Posted by Ptah

FPM should stick with Marada and Sleiman Franjiyyeh, breaking this alliance would be a disaster for FPM.

Personnally I prefer that this alliance won't be renewed, but it most probably will

[lib2006]

I think that Tachnak will thing this time before compromise with Murr because of its game against them in Qatar