New Government Formation (Discussion)

[Atlantis]

اعتبر وزير الشؤون الاجتماعية ماريو عون ان الامور في تشكيل الحكومة جرت تحت الطاولة، لافتا الى ان "الطبخة" الحكومية تمت والاتصالات انجزت و "التيار الوطني الحر" و "تكتل التغيير والاصلاح" خارج هذه "الطبخة" والاتصالات، مؤكدا اصرار التكتل على المشاركة في الحكومة بستة وزراﺀ مهما كلف الامر.


Nabil Nkoula said similar things yesterday and accused Berri of making deals without consulting with us.

I think it's about time FPM tells the oposition we are independant and we are the true 14th March, and lets get our ministers on our own outside the oppositon. Let the opposition be Berri and HA.
Frangieh if he likes to he can join them also.
Arman have always wanted to be independant anyway, so they will stay with us...

[sev]

Yes, I said this before..

On FPM/Tashnag not disappoint their fanbase. Tell hezbollah, we wont ally with berri or junblatt. if u wanna pick them, good luck for u with them. if ur with us, then we are happy..

let hezbollah choose. we are not sadened if they leave us.

PLZ GENERAL AOUN DONT ALLY WITH JOUNBLATT, AND LET BERRI.

[Atlantis]

Originally Posted by sev

Yes, I said this before..

On FPM/Tashnag not disappoint their fanbase. Tell hezbollah, we wont ally with berri or junblatt. if u wanna pick them, good luck for u with them. if ur with us, then we are happy..

let hezbollah choose. we are not sadened if they leave us.

PLZ GENERAL AOUN DONT ALLY WITH JOUNBLATT, AND LET BERRI.

Finally someone who makes sense ont his forum

[sev]

Jounblatt changing sides is just another pure proof lebanese are bunch of sheep to a certain person or hizeb..

enno, in logical word. a person changing 180 degrees on all his opinions for last 4 years would lose all his fanbase. at least his own fanbase should question him..

yet i bet jounblatt still have majority of druze votes.

[basma88]

Originally Posted by sev

Jounblatt changing sides is just another pure proof lebanese are bunch of sheep to a certain person or hizeb..

enno, in logical word. a person changing 180 degrees on all his opinions for last 4 years would lose all his fanbase. at least his own fanbase should question him..

yet i bet jounblatt still have majority of druze votes.

hehe..you are dreaming..when you hear that 99% of lebanese people are sheep believe it..
Today psp supporters are questioning him but wait 10 days and u will hear them saying alla junmblat w bas and they will say ino ken 2arar watani..

[Atlantis]

النائب الحاج حسن "للجديد": اننا اوفياء لحلفائنا وبالاخص التيار الوطني الحر، ولن ندخل في حكومة هم غير موجودين فيها

what do u think?
I believe this means one of 2 things:
-Either we get what we want as FPM
or
-It could simply mean, that HA and FPM will stay out, while berri will represent the shiaa. The problem is we will be screwed, while HA really don't care if he stays out of the government.

That would be a nice trick trick to keep us out.

[Danny Z]

Originally Posted by joseph_lubnan

This is the first New-Occupation era government and from a broader perspective it doesn't really matter much who is in it... Lebanon is entering a new period of silent occupation and this time around there isn't a single dissenting voice. What a SHAME!

All of the current parties are shameful collaborators. We need a new sovereignty movement in the country.

go on the streets and shout 7iriyye siyede 2isti2lel ya shater.

[Haririst]

Sejaan Azzi on NTV bashed MP SAMIR JESSIR, WHO Said on LBC he is against more salahiyet to the president.


Are Kataeb also changing sides?

[Hierombalos]

it's not about changing sides.
today brought a whole truckload of new data to the table.

there are two scenarios in my head.

1) jumblat's move today has already been studied carefully in accordance with the concerned parties. chiefly FM, HA, and Amal, and the current cabinet formation (15-10-5) is a reflection of this add in total compliance with jumbies shift.

the dissent between "allies" on both sides of the spectrum has been clear for the past 2 weeks or so, especially after berri and hariri finalized the 15-10-5 deal. the seal of "mousherakeh" had been stamped on this formation by no less than nasrallah.
the purported repartition of the bloc sizes in the government is not according to thirds and halfs and what have you, it is rather proportional allocation of ministries according to bloc sizes not but out of 25 not 30. with 5 given to the president including at least 2 very clear ministers in their political leanings should the need of a realignment on two sides resurface.
jumblat stuck with his former allies long enough to give harri a comfortable lead in the PM nomination, he made his terms and realigned himself in a position that permits him to secure his sect, he is not alienating anybody really except LF and kataeb. and life goes on.

he planned his move from a long time ago, but he gave LF and Kataeb MP's in the mountain to keep a christian cleavage and conflict present and open, so that under any case and under any scenario even should aoun win 40 MP's there will be "legitimate challengers" to his representation.

he cleared things on the druze scene to preserve his sect. he played it with erslen, quite smartly, he might end up giving him a druze ministry out of his own share, in which case, it gets even more confabulated but clearer. if you get what i mean.

in this way all the expternal aprties are happy, saudi arabia with a clear sunni hariri controlled grip on executive power guaranteed in substance not form by jumblat and berri. in the same time syria gets all its requirements in terms of guarantees and power checks inside the lebanese government, again through berri and jumblat.

if this is the case, then had the opposition won, berri would have done the same, but it would need a lot more creativity on his behalf.

2) second case where this is a surprise on the political scene, or that it wasn't studied before except by jumblat himself, and this is beyond my analysis, as it resets the whole cabinet formation procedure to zeroand makes a proportional allocation of ministries out of 30 the only credible alternative, the first victim of this? michel sleiman.

if this came as a shock to saudi arabia and hariri (i.e. syria has been secretly arranging this through berri for the past months) one could easily imagine hariri wanting to secure the maximum number of ministries he can even at the expense of his remaining allies.

ow this also raises another question, can he continue forming a cabinet or not? will the president now call for a 10-10-10 repartition? there are a million unanswered questions in this.

now why have the kataeb been realigning themselves? i am under the impression that external forces are heading into experimenting a combination of frangieh and kataeb as a replacement for aoun. and the kataeb were not allowed to sink with the ship as they will have a role to play in the future.

if the speech on the TV in the coming days is still positive about government formation, like today then scenario one is most likely. GMA's silence will confirm something like scenario 1, his "moushekaseh" leans towards 2 but doesn't deny 1. so he will be my compass for the coming days. waiting for the takatoll.

where does this leave us as FPM? whatever our ministerial share, and whatever we may get out of the coming government we need to understand that the international game has shifted considerably. if we believe in the party and in our values and principles, we should work all we can on reforming its structure into something viable, because a FPM, the true FPM is a necessity, as it is not only a political program (frangieh will most probably carry the same political program as us, at least strategically) but also a moral, civic, and intellectual endeavor.

those just into hawbara and politics in the narrow sense, maybe should start thinking about adpating, because a phase is ending now, in terms of te entire lebanese spectrum.

[vicking]

We are all good to speculate... to make theories, but at the end we should ONLY see reality and FACTS.

Facts : LF + Kataeb have less than 10 MP = they are nothing

Even if the whole world want to make these M14 CHristian parties something... the people of Lebanon still voted FPM.

We are the main keyplayers... we will decide how to form this government.

We will get what we want.. dont worry.