Metn 2009; should FPM leave a seat open for gemayel?

[ElieCedar]

Originally Posted by sarhay

Ya Elie, do you have any data in support of your claim, or is this just a "novel" digital stunt show??? Let people decide and live with their choices. Good Luck!

sure the last special election in Metn where FPM candidate won by 450 votes with the help of Murr's voters. Given GMA's continued decline in popularity, coupled with Kataeb and LF improved performance and organization on the ground, and add to that Murr's potentially either allying with M14 or running a separate list in Metn, then you will arrive to the conclusion that FPMers will not win a single seat in Metn. My confidence level with the above is 90%.

Look, I have already stated that GMA will win Jbeil (90% probability) and Keserwen (60% probability)...so that's my opinion based on my reading the same news you all are, and my dealings with people around me.
Elie

[ElieCedar]

Originally Posted by Tayyar Keserwen

Elie,

I will make it easy for you. LF'ers will not win a single seat in Bcharreh. Save this post for me in your digital box till the election day.

Tayyar Keserwen.

I will save it to RAM.
Elie

[Abou el Abed]

Sarkha Wa7de 2awiye, Baskenta kella Aouniye

[Dark Angel]

Originally Posted by ElieCedar

I will make it easy for you. FPMers will not win a single seat in Metn. Save this post for me in your digital box till the election day.
Elie

lallous ya lallous. please stop making things so easy for me my friend. in the last by-elections you had everything, and i mean everything, going your way and you still lost.

now think of this;

• no white roses, no emotions, no weeping mothers and no weeping widows.
• FPM having a full 9 months to prepare for the campaign instead of 3 days.
• FPM running with a full list instead of a relative unknown, with all due respect to mr camil khoury, running against a president.
• Armenians voting 100% with FPM instead of 70% after the racist comments from gemayel and co.
• Stronger FPM-Tashnaq alliance after FPM's efforts in doha.
• Hubris, it gets you every time.
• your long history of defeats.

your doom is inevitable :) your political doom that is.

baabda, metn, kesrwen, jbeil, zgharta, jezzin--> 27 deputies for FPM and allies.
zahli, koura, batroun, beirut -> 18 seats left for everybody to compete on, can you take 9 of those? :)

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by ElieCedar

sure the last special election in Metn where FPM candidate won by 450 votes with the help of Murr's voters. Given GMA's continued decline in popularity, coupled with Kataeb and LF improved performance and organization on the ground, and add to that Murr's potentially either allying with M14 or running a separate list in Metn, then you will arrive to the conclusion that FPMers will not win a single seat in Metn. My confidence level with the above is 90%.

Look, I have already stated that GMA will win Jbeil (90% probability) and Keserwen (60% probability)...so that's my opinion based on my reading the same news you all are, and my dealings with people around me.
Elie

These are good sources. We accept them.

But the confidence level at 90% is kind of low though... I think you will lose since it's not 99%.

-------------------

[Tayyar Keserwen]

LOL, i just loved Elie's 60% probability for Keserwen and 90% of Jbeil.

They are based on intensive trending and algorithmic analysis, which resulted in effective extrapolations, used by key statisticians to depict electoral predictions.

Mesh haynin el Ouwet.

[Lebanesegirl]

Full list w no2ta 3al sater!! and I believe this is what GMA will do!! cause there is only one risk to lose 2 seats one Orthodox and the other one maronite! so our list will win 6 seats! cause I'm sure let us say if Ghassan rehbeny is on our list he will lose and murr will yekhrou2! and I'm not sure about sami jmayil may be he will yekhrou2 may be not but murr for sure!! again this is my opinion and what I think will happen!

[Lebanesegirl]

Originally Posted by Tayyar Keserwen

LOL, i just loved Elie's 60% probability for Keserwen and 90% of Jbeil.

They are based on intensive trending and algorithmic analysis, which resulted in effective extrapolations, used by key statisticians to depict electoral predictions.

Mesh haynin el Ouwet.

wlek nekh bous l 2ared! mni7 he gave us a 90% and a 60%! ya3ne that's a victory for us coming from an LFer mouse!

[freelebanonn]

Originally Posted by Lebanesegirl

wlek nekh bous l 2ared! mni7 he gave us a 90% and a 60%! ya3ne that's a victory for us coming from an LFer mouse!

a 90%!!!! i know from lfers that when they give u a 50 % it means u have a 75 % chance to win etc. now this lfer gave us a 90 % does that mean we have a 115 % chance of winning in jbeil? looool

[walidos]

I voted NO, FPM should run a full list.
Simply, in my very lebanses attitude, I believe that there is no issue to leave a seat when your opponent recognizes that you are doing him a favor and is humble enough to admit it and shake hands thankfully. HOWEVER, seeing the attitude of Feb 14ers, especially LF and Kataeb, honestly, they are making all the noise and ykabro rass, like leie cedar some posts back, so fine, they want a battle we should give it to them, and may the best team win. If they can take a seat or two, sa7tein wou bala jmiletna! and we dont want to nrabbe7on jmile inno we gave them something they could have taken anyhow.