Lessons Learned

[lebanesecanadian]

Originally Posted by Diabolo_7

I disagree on something LC, the MOU.

I dont think the MOU per se is the problem, it is the actions that followed.

July war 2006 (we had no say in that)

but the latter events, Jan 23, DT protest, Presidency vacuum, and May 7 were the killers in my opinion...

FPM's image was seriously damaged during those events, and we need to rework on that...

If you look back at the MoU, it was a cynical ploy to get FPM-leaning persons to slowly digest the full throat alliance with HezbAllah. And once you were stuck with HA, you had absolutely no control over its actions and all of them really hurt you. Look at all those latter events that you mentioned:

Jan 23, DT protest, Presidency vacuum, and May 7

All of these and the war revolved about HA acting as it wants with FPM not being able stop it which really hurt both your image and the credibility of MoU. If he MoU can't even stop HA from turning his weapons inward on other Lebanese it's basically useless.

As Souss said:

- The MoU is a good thing, but has real value only if it is applied. Hezbollah must understand it has to respect it. If the expats had the vote and the pre-printed ballot was adopted (both of which HA opposed), the result may have been different: More participation and less vote-buying. FPM must be tougher with Hezbollah and hold it accountable for what it says and signs on to.

So keep the MoU as a document if you want to. But break the **** alliance, if you can't keep them honest. Why does FPM need to carry all the burden of HA's actions if HA is:

a-not going to disarm.
b-not going to get GMA the presidency.
c-Going to get you only 5 lousy seats in government that you'll lose after a measly year.

Innou, hek HA is against M14 so yalla mchina ma3 HA.

Edit: why is my post appearing in the beginning of the thread now?

[loubnaniTO]

So the results are out, and the opposition did not get the majority it was hoping. Hard luck. I know many are accusing money, corruption, intimidation, expats, etc. but enough with the finger pointing, and time to take a look internally and see what went wrong. I am just throwing thoughts for discussion here, this is NOT an exhaustive and detailed analysis of the results... just thoughts for discussion and consideration:

ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL:

- Obviously the majority are not that excited about change, and are ok living with the existing class of politicians. That's what the polls show. Not to say people don't want change, a big portion of the population wants change, but it seems the majority might have other priorities for now, like survival and benefits that might be coming from the very same corrupt politicians. Keep in mind, the Lebanese generally think as individuals and not as a community.

- There is obviously a discontent with the HA issue, and that's another reality. Call it the majority's scare tactics, call it the US pressure, call it the Batrak... it doesn't matter, the majority is not dying to defend HA's weapons.

- Another reality is that the majority of people are not ready yet to fight feudalism. Our traditional system that is based on family names, and sheikhs and clans is not that bad after all for the majority of people, and many in fact still cherish this and consider it an integral party of our society (just like the monarchy in the UK, but with more political and economical powers). And because of that, many get offended when the "clan" leaders are insulted or fought by reformists.


AT THE FPM LEVEL

Overconfidence - a serious disease. FPM and the C&R in fact increased their size in this round of elections, but everyone feels they lost, why? because of expectations and overconfidence. "C&R will be the biggest bloc in Lebanese history", "we're getting the majority for sure", "we're gonna teach them a lesson", "madmoune", "beljaybe", "we are not dying to give them the 1/3", "we are going to throw them all in jails", etc.

Principles vs. Reality - The majority of people care about their jobs, care about zeft (yep, they do), care about getting that permit stuck in some government office, care about individual benefits, and most importantly care about the "today", not the "future". The war made us care about today, survival, "bokra? alla byeb3at". People don't invest in retirement savings for a reason. FPM is not perceived as being a party that is in touch with this "lebanese" reality, it is a party of "principles". Most of its statements is about bashing the corrupt class of politicians, about Middle East politics, about what Lebanon "should be", basically about a .... dream. People care more about "services", and they care about getting them at any price. Some FPMers say we won't drop our principles for any reason. But you did. FPM is supposed to be a very secular party, but GA recognized that sticking to this principle will make him a "Najah Wakim", so he adopted a "reality", and that is people do listen when you talk about sectarian rights (CHristian rights). That's ok if you want to use this to get to power and THEN implement your principles (that's unforuntately politics), but it seems that wasn't enough. FPM MP's should be more in touch with reality, on the ground, and focus on what people care about in their every day life. Why do you think they vote for Murr, for his principles? or program?

Communications - there is definitely a problem there. Every statement made by FPM or GA, rightly or wrongly, was faced by a barrage of criticism, and that's normal in politics, that's why politicians and parties hire professional communications teams to deal with that. While the other politicians have succeeded without hiring anyone (probably because people got used to their political language), a "new" language in politics needed some sharpening. Saying the truth as it is and saying whatever we have in mind is a recipe for failure in politics. The comment about the accidental killing of an Army officer in the South angered many people, mainly in Batroun (and don't pin it only on the fact that his mother is pro-Harb). Defending HA so fiercely backfired. You could support HA without being perceived as blindly following them, even if that wasn't your intent and you were honestly supporting them. It did backfire. "Baddna nem7e el okta3" is a negative statement; how about a positive spin on it "we want to encourage the new generation and the average person to become more involved", something like that (i'm not an expert). One can fight the weaknesses in society without declaring wars on all of them, sometimes you can fight them indirectly.

Strategy - FPM had its own political strategy/approach, and it seems it wasn't that appealing. A head-on strategy based on "we stick to our principles, we're bullies, and everyone will follow". Well it didn't work. Berri is HA's closest ally, he is accused of harboring thugs who were at the heart of the May 7 events last year, and yet he manages to meet with Hariri, sweet talks Jumblatt, and guess what... they will reelect him as a Speaker. Lessons learned?

Internal Organization - The adversaries managed and succeeded in tarnishing GA's image in the minds of MANY lebanese, whether we like to admit it or not. MANY Lebanese people now hate GA more than they hate HA, Iran and Israel put together. But that's ok. Within FPM, there is only GA. No matter how much we'd like to deny it, it is a one-man party. If, God forbids, something happens to him today, FPM might become either "FPMs" or another Ketle watanye. If someone doesn't like GA for any reason (rightly or wrongly), this means they don't like FPM. Which shouldn't be the case. It is time to restructure FPM, make it a real democratic institution, with a focus on this institution rather than a focus on one man. I know GA said he will do this right after the elections, I hope the loss in the elections will not change this.



Once again, those are just thoughts for discussion, and not purely a criticism of FPM or an exhaustive list of reasons why the opposition did not win the elections.

[Sniper®]

Our focus must be on organizing the party ....

[vicking]

100% Agree -- I add to what you said :

1/ Very poor mobilization abroad vs the M14. Tayyar started contacting people last month, this should have been organized at least 1 year before. There are MILLION of emmigrants, in total, some 10 000 extra persons were needed

2/ REFUSING SUNNA TRANSFER TO ZAHLE !!!! We should have passed a law forbiding this

3/ Get international coverage and explain that opposition is not only Hezbollah

4/ DIstribute tracts everywhere

[superduper703]

Very well thought-out discourse. I want to add one more thing...

GMA's media behavior:
The man comes across as a very rude, []. He needs to learn to speak like a politician. Make your point without screaming, belittling others []. A media/communications training course would do wonders. His image needs to be buffed up.

[Wolf]

Agreed with all of that.
But let me take you back to Dec 2006. ghaltet esh shater be alf.
they should have had stormed the serail back then.
No lessons learned since 1943.
People DO NOT want to learn, as soon as they learn they leave the country, cause they know it is a hopless case.

on the FPM level, I think they ran a very good campain. you can only ask for so much, and tell people to vote for you.
hats off.

[lebgeneral]

100% with you Loubnanito, but we should also work on future generations...

We cannot afford to leave them aside!!!

[loubnaniTO]

Originally Posted by vicking

100% Agree -- I add to what you said :

1/ Very poor mobilization abroad vs the M14. Tayyar started contacting people last month, this should have been organized at least 1 year before. There are MILLION of emmigrants, in total, some 10 000 extra persons were needed

2/ REFUSING SUNNA TRANSFER TO ZAHLE !!!! We should have passed a law forbiding this

3/ Get international coverage and explain that opposition is not only Hezbollah

4/ DIstribute tracts everywhere

One more thing, we should reduce the sectarian tone. FPM's success or failure should not be the result of where the Sunnas are or aren't. You either have a successful party or not. The Sunnas are voting against FPM for a reason, and let's no longer pin it on others (because of Hariri, because of money, because of this or that). FPM didn't appeal to them enough, something went wrong, period. NOw let's see what it was AT FPM that went wrong, and try to deal with it.

[insensible]

From my point of view :
They have a lot of money and support worldwide , we have limited ..
I guess we should go to Russia and get their support and turn Lebaon into Russian - American Era instead of Iranian - American Fight lol !

[Shei5 Sa3d]

i want to add 1 more thing plz

stop attacking sects!!
ur attack against SUNNIS made u lose!!.
its just an advice to u..bcz i used to consider GMA as a great leader..but attacking SUNNIS obliged me 2 hate him,& support all the ones against him!! knowing that im sunni & FMer
hardluck!