Koura Election 2009

[sarhay]

Originally Posted by Mared_3400

If I go back to 2005 results, Sleiman Frangieh in Anfeh got more votes than what Farid Macary got(which by the way is his home town) so based on what anfeh is loyalist? Same for Kosba my friend.

Thanks Mared. The coming election in Koura should not be taken for granted. I will elaborate using the numbers posted,thankfully, by Tayyar Aouni.
below are two scenarios that will give the loyalist more than what they have in 2005, but ever since there was some changes and i believe scenario1 might be realistic for 2009 granted that money, religions will play major roles in favor of loyalists. these are just assumption based on data provided in this thread. My only comments is that to take them with a grain of salt.
Scenario 1:Loyalists:
Sunni=3259, 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 50% loyalist=1800 and if 65% vote=1175
Orthodox=13972, 35% loyalist=4890 and if 75% vote=3668
Others=668, 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 6793

Opposition:
Sunni=3259, 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601, 50% opposition=2161 and if 65% vote=1175
Orhtodox=13972, 65% opposition=9081 and if 75% vote=6811
Others=668, 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391
Total projected voters=8589

Scenario 2:Loyalists
Sunni=3259 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 60% loyalist=2161 and if 65% vote=1404
Orthodox=13972 45% loyalist=5589 and if 75% vote=4192
Others=668 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 7546

Opposition:
Sunni=3259 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601 40% opposition=1440 and if 65% vote=936
Orhtodox=13972 55% opposition=7684 and if 75% vote=5763
Others=668 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391

Total projected voters=7302

[sarhay]

Thanks a lot TAYYAR AL AOUNI. But for some reason the sunni numbers seems to include `alamoun town. I can not come with sunni numbers in Koura of 3259 from btourateej/kfer`ahil/nakhleeh.

[sarhay]

Originally Posted by Venom

If am not mistaken the sunni towns in Koura vote in Tripoli. right?

Venom, Only `alamoun will vote with tripole. therest sunni villages in koura will vote in koura.

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by sarhay

Thanks Mared. The coming election in Koura should not be taken for granted. I will elaborate using the numbers posted,thankfully, by Tayyar Aouni.
below are two scenarios that will give the loyalist more than what they have in 2005, but ever since there was some changes and i believe scenario1 might be realistic for 2009 granted that money, religions will play major roles in favor of loyalists. these are just assumption based on data provided in this thread. My only comments is that to take them with a grain of salt.
Scenario 1:Loyalists:
Sunni=3259, 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 50% loyalist=1800 and if 65% vote=1175
Orthodox=13972, 35% loyalist=4890 and if 75% vote=3668
Others=668, 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 6793

Opposition:
Sunni=3259, 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601, 50% opposition=2161 and if 65% vote=1175
Orhtodox=13972, 65% opposition=9081 and if 75% vote=6811
Others=668, 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391
Total projected voters=8589

Scenario 2:Loyalists
Sunni=3259 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 60% loyalist=2161 and if 65% vote=1404
Orthodox=13972 45% loyalist=5589 and if 75% vote=4192
Others=668 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 7546

Opposition:
Sunni=3259 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601 40% opposition=1440 and if 65% vote=936
Orhtodox=13972 55% opposition=7684 and if 75% vote=5763
Others=668 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391

Total projected voters=7302

something wrong with ur number
over 20 thousand voted in 05
so expect more this time

[Abou Tony]

if marada fpm can get minimum 3500 votes it will be a clean sweep for opposition

[unitedlb]

Originally Posted by sarhay

Thanks Mared. The coming election in Koura should not be taken for granted. I will elaborate using the numbers posted,thankfully, by Tayyar Aouni.
below are two scenarios that will give the loyalist more than what they have in 2005, but ever since there was some changes and i believe scenario1 might be realistic for 2009 granted that money, religions will play major roles in favor of loyalists. these are just assumption based on data provided in this thread. My only comments is that to take them with a grain of salt.
Scenario 1:Loyalists:
Sunni=3259, 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 50% loyalist=1800 and if 65% vote=1175
Orthodox=13972, 35% loyalist=4890 and if 75% vote=3668
Others=668, 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 6793

Opposition:
Sunni=3259, 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601, 50% opposition=2161 and if 65% vote=1175
Orhtodox=13972, 65% opposition=9081 and if 75% vote=6811
Others=668, 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391
Total projected voters=8589

Scenario 2:Loyalists
Sunni=3259 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 60% loyalist=2161 and if 65% vote=1404
Orthodox=13972 45% loyalist=5589 and if 75% vote=4192
Others=668 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 7546

Opposition:
Sunni=3259 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601 40% opposition=1440 and if 65% vote=936
Orhtodox=13972 55% opposition=7684 and if 75% vote=5763
Others=668 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391

Total projected voters=7302

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

something wrong with ur number
over 20 thousand voted in 05
so expect more this time

It seems that the numbers he has given (far left) are the total who voted rather than the number registered. Therefore he will need to recalculate on that basis.

[geogeo758]

The numbers he has posted are in accurate. Those on Proudtobelebanese are actually from the 2000 parliamentary elections and not from the 2005. Plus there are a lot of inaccuracies in the total number of voters and voters by sect!

[Kassarjian]

Originally Posted by NEVER_BACK_DOWN

i'm going to use napoleon's post to reply:
"Then, about Kousba.....Here guys you have to chill out again !!!!! Go and have a look at Farid Habib family neighborhood.....It's like a bunker......They are so much hated in Kousba that they are afraid something might happen to them !!!!

Kousba will vote this time, as they always did, for Fayez Ghosn who is close to Frangieh !!!!!"

i do have lots of friends and connections in kosba and they are harcore marada

Originally Posted by LeBaNeSeCiTiZeN

what napoleon of koura said is true , i have relatives from koura and its 100 % with sleyman frangieh

kassarjian i have only one question : where are you from? ( which quada2 ) ?
if u are not from koura , u can relax mate

Well then I dont think you guys know much about el Koura, the history I know very well is that Amyoun and Kousba hate each other because Amyoun and its lower elevations areas are pro SSNP, but as you go higher the people tend to hate Marada and SSNP and will definitely vote LF/Kataeb, simply because a lot of Kousba residence were arrested killed or disappeared by the marada during the Syrian occupation especially after the Ehden massacre due to the fact that Kousba residences are mainly pro Kataeb.
On the other hand, the Marada themselves are now divided between Maawad, Karam, Douweihi and yammeen which are pro Frenjieh, BTW Franjieh is the smallest family in Zgharta but the yammen family are pro Franjieh and that is what makes them strong.

[Napoleaoun of koura]

Originally Posted by Kassarjian

Well then I dont think you guys know much about el Koura, the history I know very well is that Amyoun and Kousba hate each other because Amyoun and its lower elevations areas are pro SSNP, but as you go higher the people tend to hate Marada and SSNP and will definitely vote LF/Kataeb, simply because a lot of Kousba residence were arrested killed or disappeared by the marada during the Syrian occupation especially after the Ehden massacre due to the fact that Kousba residences are mainly pro Kataeb.
On the other hand, the Marada themselves are now divided between Maawad, Karam, Douweihi and yammeen which are pro Frenjieh, BTW Franjieh is the smallest family in Zgharta but the yammen family are pro Franjieh and that is what makes them strong.

Well it seems that you know better than I do !!!! Dude, I'm from Koura, and I'm going to say it again, Kousba will vote for Fayez Ghosn, point final......Amyoun will vote for Salim Saadé, another point final.......Some families in kfar 3aqa (but they are mostly FPM & SSNP there) and kfar Hazir (same as in kfar 3aka) will probably vote for LF....Some will do the same in Kousba as well, but it is nothing compared to the number of votes Fayez Ghosn will get.....About the maronite villages, let's talk about Dar B3achtar : 90% with FPM.....

Oh yes and to make you happy, some will vote for LF in Ras Maska, bterram, bziza, bsarma, fih, and very few in the other villages !!!!!

[ElieCedar]

Originally Posted by sarhay

There few threads that tackle the issue of election in 2009. While most are focused on Mount Lebanon area this thread will be focused on election status in Al-koura. Speaking to people in the area showed that there is a growning fear that the opposition will not have an easy ride at all in Koura. Allegations had it that lot of money has been funneled in to the Caza Al koura and people leaning toward loyalists camp, mainly LF, are increasing. Large towns like Ammyoun, kfer Hazeer, Kousba are having more young voters becoming disenchanted with their historical base, SSNP and Marada, and moving to the other side!!! if these words of mouth materialize then it will be very tight race and probably unsecure for the opposition.
My goal in this thread is to have inputs, not just sheer emotion, about Al- koura status in terms of election activities led by opposition?
who are the possible candidates?
poll and survey status?
forcast of outcomes for the opposition? tangible data if avialable?
thnx.

Sarhay... the stories which you are hearing are absolutely correct. That's the result of LF work on the ground since Hakim was out of his political cell. More and more young people are attracted to the traditional Christian line as represented by the LF/Kateab. So the election battle will be close, possibly 60/40 in favor of the LF/Kateab/FM.

Here are the results of the 2005 election in Koura:

"In 2005, M14's Koura candidates got more votes in Koura than M8's Koura candidates. Farid Mkari got 11889 votes, Farid Habib 10402 and Nicolas Ghosn 10277, while the best score of M8 was Fayez Ghosn: 10049. So even in a Caza law M14 would have swept all the seats in Koura (reference is Annahar, june 25th 2005, where detailed per-Caza scores in North were published)."

So if you consider the 2005 numbers as base, and then you factor in the "Hakim" factor, the "MOU", "SSNP storming of Beirut", "replacing Hariri's pictures with Assad", then it's not hard to predict the results.

Similar fate awaits Metn and Zahleh.

Wnabka,
Elie