Koura Election 2009

[Shuyu3i]

Originally Posted by sarhay

Shuyu3i:
I hope that you will be right this time:) but if i take everytown and projected its outcome in the election that will a start. Major towns in Al koura that will tip the election balance outcome are: Ammyoun, Kousba, Dahr-al3een, Kfer hazeer, Anfeh, and chekka( i donot if it is in koura or batroun according to the election law). Here is my 2 cents worth predictions:
Ammyoun= probably opposition
Kousba=more toward LF?
Kfer Hazeer=known as SSNPand FPM so it would be opposition
Anfeh=loyalist
Chekka=probably opposition
Deddeh= loyalist, eventhough they are SSNP mostly, but the sunni population may tip it toward loyalist.
Dahr Al-3ein/Samriyeh= typically Marada, so i will predict opposition, even though harit Al ber`asheyih is mostly LF.
Batroumeen=historically LCP oriented, do not know how it will vote.
Beshmizzin= Loyalist
Bterram=50/50
Bsarmah=loyalist
Kfer 3aa`/saroun=opposition
Feyi3= opposition
Btorateej/nakleeh/kfer `ahill=loyalist/LF
3abah/bdebah= probably opposition??
Badbihoun and surrounding villages=opposition
Darib 3ishtaar=loyalist.
Now these villages vary in their electoral weight and the few major villages could tip the balance regardless of the outcome in the several smaller ones. These are the villages that i can remember, again these are only prediction and should not be taken as factual statements.

Ammyoun, Chekka are hard to predict.

[Dynamis]

Originally Posted by sarhay

Shuyu3i:
I hope that you will be right this time:) but if i take everytown and projected its outcome in the election that will a start. Major towns in Al koura that will tip the election balance outcome are: Ammyoun, Kousba, Dahr-al3een, Kfer hazeer, Anfeh, and chekka( i donot if it is in koura or batroun according to the election law). Here is my 2 cents worth predictions:
Ammyoun= probably opposition
Kousba=more toward LF?
Kfer Hazeer=known as SSNPand FPM so it would be opposition
Anfeh=loyalist
Chekka=probably opposition
Deddeh= loyalist, eventhough they are SSNP mostly, but the sunni population may tip it toward loyalist.
Dahr Al-3ein/Samriyeh= typically Marada, so i will predict opposition, even though harit Al ber`asheyih is mostly LF.
Batroumeen=historically LCP oriented, do not know how it will vote.
Beshmizzin= Loyalist
Bterram=50/50
Bsarmah=loyalist
Kfer 3aa`/saroun=opposition
Feyi3= opposition
Btorateej/nakleeh/kfer `ahill=loyalist/LF
3abah/bdebah= probably opposition??
Badbihoun and surrounding villages=opposition
Darib 3ishtaar=loyalist.
Now these villages vary in their electoral weight and the few major villages could tip the balance regardless of the outcome in the several smaller ones. These are the villages that i can remember, again these are only prediction and should not be taken as factual statements.

Instead of this guessing game, why don't you get the data from 2005 and extrapolate? lets use data instead of opinions...

I am telling you, the people of Koura do not vote one ticket for all the candidates, in general...They pick and choose the candidates which will enable Khare2 El Lista. They are notorious for doing that since the days of independence.

mY prediction is that There IS A CHANCE FOR a Khare2 in Koura by Farid Mkereh. He has too many business connections.

[sarhay]

Originally Posted by Dynamis

Instead of this guessing game, why don't you get the data from 2005 and extrapolate? lets use data instead of opinions...

I am telling you, the people of Koura do not vote one ticket for all the candidates, in general...They pick and choose the candidates which will enable Khare2 El Lista. They are notorious for doing that since the days of independence.

mY prediction is that There IS A CHANCE FOR a Khare2 in Koura by Farid Mkereh. He has too many business connections.

Dynamis:
If you have the 2005 data and able to post it that will be great! keep in mind that many things had changed since then and eventually impacted people's opinions about various political parties. tayyib,I will be waiting for the 2005 data so we can extrapolate...

[Abou Tony]

For the analysis to be more scientific u need to state the number of voters in each town , Amioun is probably 30-40 % of the votes.

A hint :

SSNP : > 6500 active members in koura .

[Napoleaoun of koura]

Originally Posted by Shuyu3i

Ammyoun, Chekka are hard to predict.

Amioun is hard to predict !????????lol !!!!!.... Ok guys.....cool down a little bit......I'm from there and I can tell you that there is no fear to have at all....

First Shuyu3i, at least 90% of Amioun will vote for Salim Saadé (SSNP) son of Abdallah Saadé who was considered as one of the greatest leader of the SSNP Party.....He a the son of the town, and no municipality elections happened without his help. Everybody likes him here !!!!! (there is only 1 or 2 families that like kataeb and LF, which by the way never had any sort of problem with there neighbours. On the contrary they laugh with each other about there different political views)

Then, about Kousba.....Here guys you have to chill out again !!!!! Go and have a look at Farid Habib family neighborhood.....It's like a bunker......They are so much hated in Kousba that they are afraid something might happen to them !!!!

Kousba will vote this time, as they always did, for Fayez Ghosn who is close to Frangieh !!!!!

Now the only threat will come from Farid Makari, because he employed many people in Oger (Amfé mainly and some villlages around) !!!!!

So 2 scenarios :

1 - the whole opposition list will win
2 - 2 MPs for the opposition, and 1 for the loyalists

I hope I have been able to enlighten some of you !!!

Cheers,

Napo

[Napoleaoun of koura]

Oh and yes.....Sorry I forgot to mention that ....... 80% of those who might have been considered as independents became either Aounists, or pro FPM......

Again, Chill out !!!!!

[Abou Tony]

Originally Posted by Napoleaoun of koura

Amioun is hard to predict !????????lol !!!!!.... Ok guys.....cool down a little bit......I'm from there and I can tell you that there is no fear to have at all....

First Shuyu3i, at least 90% of Amioun will vote for Salim Saadé (SSNP) son of Abdallah Saadé who was considered as one of the greatest leader of the SSNP Party.....He a the son of the town, and no municipality elections happened without his help. Everybody likes him here !!!!! (there is only 1 or 2 families that like kataeb and LF, which by the way never had any sort of problem with there neighbours. On the contrary they laugh with each other about there different political views)

Then, about Kousba.....Here guys you have to chill out again !!!!! Go and have a look at Farid Habib family neighborhood.....It's like a bunker......They are so much hated in Kousba that they are afraid something might happen to them !!!!

Kousba will vote this time, as they always did, for Fayez Ghosn who is close to Frangieh !!!!!

Now the only threat will come from Farid Makari, because he employed many people in Oger (Amfé mainly and some villlages around) !!!!!

So 2 scenarios :

1 - the whole opposition list will win
2 - 2 MPs for the opposition, and 1 for the loyalists

I hope I have been able to enlighten some of you !!!

Cheers,

Napo

Very accurate.

the only threat is from hariri money , makari , motran aoudeh , and the sunni voters , lf are irrelevent elect.

Communists are irrelevent .

[Kassarjian]

Originally Posted by NEVER_BACK_DOWN

KOUSBA is towards MARADA

Kosba has always been predominately kataeb and they hate Marada so bad, kataeb in kosba played a major roll in 1976 to liberate Koura al khadra2 from the SSNP and their Phalastinians buddies who were present in Koura in support of the SSNP.
Kosba will definately vote LF/Kataeb.

[NEVER_BACK_DOWN]

Originally Posted by Kassarjian

Kosba has always been predominately kataeb and they hate Marada so bad, kataeb in kosba played a major roll in 1976 to liberate Koura al khadra2 from the SSNP and their Phalastinians buddies who were present in Koura in support of the SSNP.
Kosba will definately vote LF/Kataeb.

i'm going to use napoleon's post to reply:
"Then, about Kousba.....Here guys you have to chill out again !!!!! Go and have a look at Farid Habib family neighborhood.....It's like a bunker......They are so much hated in Kousba that they are afraid something might happen to them !!!!

Kousba will vote this time, as they always did, for Fayez Ghosn who is close to Frangieh !!!!!"

i do have lots of friends and connections in kosba and they are harcore marada

[LeBaNeSeCiTiZeN]

Originally Posted by Kassarjian

Kosba has always been predominately kataeb and they hate Marada so bad, kataeb in kosba played a major roll in 1976 to liberate Koura al khadra2 from the SSNP and their Phalastinians buddies who were present in Koura in support of the SSNP.
Kosba will definately vote LF/Kataeb.

what napoleon of koura said is true , i have relatives from koura and its 100 % with sleyman frangieh

kassarjian i have only one question : where are you from? ( which quada2 ) ?
if u are not from koura , u can relax mate