Koura Election 2009

[sarhay]

There few threads that tackle the issue of election in 2009. While most are focused on Mount Lebanon area this thread will be focused on election status in Al-koura. Speaking to people in the area showed that there is a growning fear that the opposition will not have an easy ride at all in Koura. Allegations had it that lot of money has been funneled in to the Caza Al koura and people leaning toward loyalists camp, mainly LF, are increasing. Large towns like Ammyoun, kfer Hazeer, Kousba are having more young voters becoming disenchanted with their historical base, SSNP and Marada, and moving to the other side!!! if these words of mouth materialize then it will be very tight race and probably unsecure for the opposition.
My goal in this thread is to have inputs, not just sheer emotion, about Al- koura status in terms of election activities led by opposition?
who are the possible candidates?
poll and survey status?
forcast of outcomes for the opposition? tangible data if avialable?
thnx.

[J_Raad1450]

No emotions or anything...You made a claim that "young voters are disenchanted with their historical base, SSNP and Marada"

How did you arrive to that claim?

[Dynamis]

I hope the loyalists, then think it is a cake walk for them...Go tell the loyalists.

All those that I know in Koura, and I have many relatives there, are ALL PRO-FPM...

None have changed: young or Old.

The Only issue is Farid Makery...He is well connected, and he does spend a lot of money.
He may Yukhru2 the lista. No one else will.

[sarhay]

Originally Posted by J_Raad1450

No emotions or anything...You made a claim that "young voters are disenchanted with their historical base, SSNP and Marada"

How did you arrive to that claim?

As i stated, in the original thread, my soruces are word of mouth, no scientific evidence or statistic done. my claim/allegation, see my post, is based on different sources from relatives and friends who are pro-FPM/ Marada and also pro-LF, at least 8 different people raised same concern that there is a trend of increasing popular base for LF. Can i support it? no. Do i believe their claims? proabably so because they are on the ground. Is it possible to measure the shift? I do not know but would like to know from different people who are familiar with the area. This was the purpose of the original thread to get more tangible information about the situation bil Koura.
I hope this answer your question!

[Shuyu3i]

In AL koura there is wide support for the LF. Is it enough against FPM/SSNP/Marada i don't think so.

[J_Raad1450]

Originally Posted by sarhay

As i stated, in the original thread, my soruces are word of mouth, no scientific evidence or statistic done. my claim/allegation, see my post, is based on different sources from relatives and friends who are pro-FPM/ Marada and also pro-LF, at least 8 different people raised same concern that there is a trend of increasing popular base for LF. Can i support it? no. Do i believe their claims? proabably so because they are on the ground. Is it possible to measure the shift? I do not know but would like to know from different people who are familiar with the area. This was the purpose of the original thread to get more tangible information about the situation bil Koura.
I hope this answer your question!

I heard from 16 people oppostion will sweep all three seats Koura area

[sarhay]

Originally Posted by J_Raad1450

I heard from 16 people oppostion will sweep all three seats Koura area

Not to compete with you on the number of people whom you spoke with:)but i would like to ask you and others, once more, about tangible sources if avialable-not word of mouth. that way we can have an outlook on what to come and address it accordingly.

[sarhay]

Originally Posted by Shuyu3i

In AL koura there is wide support for the LF. Is it enough against FPM/SSNP/Marada i don't think so.

Shuyu3i:
I hope that you will be right this time:) but if i take everytown and projected its outcome in the election that will a start. Major towns in Al koura that will tip the election balance outcome are: Ammyoun, Kousba, Dahr-al3een, Kfer hazeer, Anfeh, and chekka( i donot if it is in koura or batroun according to the election law). Here is my 2 cents worth predictions:
Ammyoun= probably opposition
Kousba=more toward LF?
Kfer Hazeer=known as SSNPand FPM so it would be opposition
Anfeh=loyalist
Chekka=probably opposition
Deddeh= loyalist, eventhough they are SSNP mostly, but the sunni population may tip it toward loyalist.
Dahr Al-3ein/Samriyeh= typically Marada, so i will predict opposition, even though harit Al ber`asheyih is mostly LF.
Batroumeen=historically LCP oriented, do not know how it will vote.
Beshmizzin= Loyalist
Bterram=50/50
Bsarmah=loyalist
Kfer 3aa`/saroun=opposition
Feyi3= opposition
Btorateej/nakleeh/kfer `ahill=loyalist/LF
3abah/bdebah= probably opposition??
Badbihoun and surrounding villages=opposition
Darib 3ishtaar=loyalist.
Now these villages vary in their electoral weight and the few major villages could tip the balance regardless of the outcome in the several smaller ones. These are the villages that i can remember, again these are only prediction and should not be taken as factual statements.

[NEVER_BACK_DOWN]

Originally Posted by sarhay

Shuyu3i:
I hope that you will be right this time:) but if i take everytown and projected its outcome in the election that will a start. Major towns in Al koura that will tip the election balance outcome are: Ammyoun, Kousba, Dahr-al3een, Kfer hazeer, Anfeh, and chekka( i donot if it is in koura or batroun according to the election law). Here is my 2 cents worth predictions:
Ammyoun= probably opposition
Kousba=more toward LF?
Kfer Hazeer=known as SSNPand FPM so it would be opposition
Anfeh=loyalist
Chekka=probably opposition
Deddeh= loyalist, eventhough they are SSNP mostly, but the sunni population may tip it toward loyalist.
Dahr Al-3ein/Samriyeh= typically Marada, so i will predict opposition, even though harit Al ber`asheyih is mostly LF.
Batroumeen=historically LCP oriented, do not know how it will vote.
Beshmizzin= Loyalist
Bterram=50/50
Bsarmah=loyalist
Kfer 3aa`/saroun=opposition
Feyi3= opposition
Btorateej/nakleeh/kfer `ahill=loyalist/LF
3abah/bdebah= probably opposition??
Badbihoun and surrounding villages=opposition
Darib 3ishtaar=loyalist.
Now these villages vary in their electoral weight and the few major villages could tip the balance regardless of the outcome in the several smaller ones. These are the villages that i can remember, again these are only prediction and should not be taken as factual statements.

KOUSBA is towards MARADA

[R.B]

Originally Posted by sarhay

Shuyu3i:
Ammyoun= probably opposition Most definetely
Kousba=more toward LF?
Kfer Hazeer=known as SSNPand FPM so it would be opposition
Anfeh=loyalist FPM took close to 80% in 2005
Chekka=probably opposition
Deddeh= loyalist, eventhough they are SSNP mostly, but the sunni population may tip it toward loyalist.
Dahr Al-3ein/Samriyeh= typically Marada, so i will predict opposition, even though harit Al ber`asheyih is mostly LF.
Batroumeen=historically LCP oriented, do not know how it will vote.
Beshmizzin= Loyalist
Bterram=50/50
Bsarmah=loyalist
Kfer 3aa`/saroun=opposition
Feyi3= opposition
Btorateej/nakleeh/kfer `ahill=loyalist/LF
3abah/bdebah= probably opposition??
Badbihoun and surrounding villages=opposition
Darib 3ishtaar=loyalist.Huge FPM presence
Now these villages vary in their electoral weight and the few major villages could tip the balance regardless of the outcome in the several smaller ones. These are the villages that i can remember, again these are only prediction and should not be taken as factual statements.

I think that the situation is good for the opposition in 2009 in Koura, infact very Good.