How many seats must FPM win to become the majority?

[dyyyy]

Originally Posted by M@rshall

guys what fo you think about what Nicolas Sehnaoui just announced on LBC about an hour ago, saying that he is looking for a "43 MPs" block, he repeated it many times, which tells he is serious about it, and again he concluded his speech by repeating it again!!! when the journalist asked him about how many of the 43 candidates does he predict to make it through the elections, he calmly smiled and confidently said "43"!!!!

what do you think about that...?

regards

well the chances are very slim to get ALL the 43 seats, but he should say that to hint at the fact that it's possible and that there are no regions where FPM is desperate from the results
what do you guess the numbers will be?

[Amirkani]

FPM needs 65 MPs to be a majority.

128/2 + 1 = 65

:)

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[dyyyy]

Originally Posted by Amirkani

FPM needs 65 MPs to be a majority.

128/2 + 1 = 65

:)

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that's why he has allies,
he can't get 65 out of 43 candidates :D

[CedarLb]

Wednesday May 20 2009 أما توزع المقاعد، ودائماً بحسب المصدر الموالي، فسيكون في النهاية لقوى 14 آذار، بنقطة واحدة. وستحصل هي وحلفاؤها من الوسطيين المقربين من رئيس الجمهورية على 65 مقعداً في البرلمان، تاركة للمعارضة 63 مقعداً. ويقر المصدر بأن هامش الخطأ في هذه القراءة قد يطيحها كلها، فإذا تغير عامل واحد في المعادلة فإن الأكثرية ستنقلب من ناحية إلى أخرى. إلا أن المصدر، وحتى تتغير المعادلات، يعتقد بصحة ما كتبه على الورقة المحفوظة في الدرج، وهو: بيروت الأولى (5 مقاعد) 4 موالاة وواحد للمعارضة الثانية (4) 2 موالاة، 2 معارضة الثالثة (10) 10 للموالاة عكار (7) 7 للموالاة المنية الضنية (3) 3 للموالاة طرابلس (8) 8 للموالاة زغرتا (3) 3 للمعارضة بشري (2) 2 للموالاة الكورة (3) 2 للموالاة، 1 للمعارضة البترون (2) 2 للموالاة جبيل (3) 3 للمعارضة كسروان (5) 5 للمعارضة المتن الشمالي (8) 1 للموالاة، 7 للمعارضة عاليه (5) أربعة للموالاة، 1 للمعارضة الشوف (8) 8 للموالاة صيدا (2) 2 للموالاة جزين (3) 3 للمعارضة الزهراني (3) 3 للمعارضة مرجعيون حاصبيا (5) خمسة للمعارضة صور (4) 4 للمعارضة النبطية (3) 3 للمعارضة بنت جبيل (3) 3 للمعارضة البقاع الغربي راشيا (6) 6 للمعارضة زحلة والبقاع الأوسط (7) 4 للموالاة، 3 للمعارضة علبك الهرمل (10) 10 للمعارضة. Al-Akbar فداء عيتاني

I don't know why this loyalist source skipped Baabda from his calculations.

[TonyFPM]

1st of all Cedar, I don't think that Bekaa Gharbi-Rachaya is an easy ride for the opposition in order to have 6 out of 6. 2nd, as U said, there's no Baabda. 3rd, and as a cinclusion, this is total BS.

[Lebanesegirl]

where did baabda go? baabda alone 6 seats!!

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by CedarLb

I don't know why this loyalist source skipped Baabda from his calculations.

I think regarding the Rasahayya-West beqa3 issue, it's a typing mistake. According to the article, the loyalists have 59 seats, but in the beginning it says 65 MPs. Well, 59 +6= 65 MPs, and besides this region is pro-loyalist even by opposition's own admission, so it would not be logical for loyalists to concede this region to the opposition.

Note that I disagree with Beirut 1, Koura, Zahle, Batroun estimates. The rest might turn out to be true.

[False Morel]

The seats calculations aren't that complicated:

Electoral battles will be held on 10 seats only:

One seat in each of Koura, Metn, Beirut 1, Saida, and Zahle.
Two seats in Batroun.
Three seats in West Bekaa.

That leaves us with the following:

- 48 seats for Loyalists: Akkar 7 - Tripoli 8 - Becharre 2 - Menyi 3 - Aley 4 -
Chouf 8 - Beirut2 2 - Beirut3 10 - Saida 1 - West Bekaa 3.

- 70 seats for Opposition: Zgharta 3 - Koura 2 - Jbeil 3 - Keserwan 5 - Metn 7 -
Baabda 6 - Aley 1 - Beirut1 4 - Beirut2 2 - Jezzine 3 - Zahrani 3 - Sour 4 -
Nabatiyyeh 3 - Bintjebil 3 - Mareayoun 5 - Zahle 6 - Baalbeck 10.


This means Loyalists need more than the 10 undecided seats to win!
However, their target is to get, in addition to those 10 undecided seats, more MPs in Beirut1, Metn, and Zahle, and try to get one MP in Keserwan and Jbeil each. And thus the assumed battle in the Christian Cazas agaisnt FPM/C&R.

But even if they won 1 seat in Beirut1 (2 altogether), 1 in Metn (2 altogether), and 2 in Zahle (3 altogether), and 1 in Keserwan or Jbeil, they'll reach 63 Mps!
It's like a mission impossible for them.

In order to stop the impossible from becoming possible, Opposition need to do what they should do, nothing more. Everyone, especially FPM are doing as much and even more so far. One duty left, that every and each opposition supporter capable of going to vote by any mean, to go vote.

One issue would stay unclear, and that's the percentage FPM's getting this time over within the Christian street. I expect same percentages as 2005 or higher. But I can't see what importance does that make anyway!