How many seats must FPM win to become the majority?

[unitedlb]

Originally Posted by airboy

Hi, i hope you win the majority, but honestly, doesn't you think you are going to lose votes because of your Hezb. alliance? I have nothing against Hezb. and i like theirs and yours courage to stand up against the West (USA). Im a none Lebanese so i don't have that much knowledge of the contry, but i can't see how you can get more votes from the christians by joining "there team" after what has happend since the elections?
Well good luck, going to be a intresting election to follow even for me :)

Hi Airboy,

Thanks for the comment. As a Christian and as a Lebanese first and foremost, I believe that the best thing that ever happened in Lebanon's recent history was the meeting and the understanding between General Michel Aoun and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Not only has this definitely increased co-existence and brought together a greater sense of national unity that Lebanon desperately needs, it has also brought the Christians out of the sidelines and allowed them to regain rights and privileges that were missing since the Taif Accord. This is obvious through Hezbollah's support of FPM in government (FPM represents 60-70% of the Christian vote) and through Hezbollah's support of a fair election law that was always going to be better for the Christians than the 2000-election law. Hezbollah has also supported establishing diplomatic ties with Syria, dilineating the border between Lebanon and Syria, release of Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails and the return of Lebanese from Israel. They are also opposed to the naturalisation of Palestinians in Lebanon. The understanding between FPM and Hezbollah established an amazing sense of national unity that kept Lebanon unbelievably strong when we were attacked by Israel in 2006. Through it's alliance with Hezbollah, the FPM has achieved a great deal for Lebanon and for the Christians. There is no doubt that the Christians will be the most important voters in this upcoming election, mainly thanks to the alliance between FPM and Hezbollah that freed the Christian majority regions from larger non-Christian majority areas, giving the Christians a greater say in who their parliamentary representatives will be. Make no mistake about it, it is now the Christians who will decide on the fate of Lebanon. I don't like talking in sectarian terms but I'm just responding to your comment about the FPM getting votes from the Christians.

[Leb-Can]

My Guess is that the total Opposition seats could be:

Akkar: 0/7
Menieh: 0/3
Tripoli: 0/8
Zgharta: 3/3
Koura: 1/3
Batroun: 1/2
Besharri : 0/2
Jibeil: 3/3
Keserwan: 4/5
Maten: 6/8
Beirut I: 3/5
Beirut II: 2/4
Beirut III: 0/10
Baabda: 6/6
Aley: 1/5
Shouf: 0/8
Saida: 0/2
Jezzine: 3/3
Zahrani : 3/3
Nabatieh: 3/3
Sour: 4/4
Bent Jbeil : 3/3
Marjaayoun: 5/5
Baalbek: 10/10
Zahle: 5/7
West Beka: 1/6
Total = 67/128

[totally_neutral]

Originally Posted by Leb-Can

My Guess is that the total Opposition seats could be:

Akkar: 0/7
Menieh: 0/3
Tripoli: 0/8
Zgharta: 3/3
Koura: 1/3
Batroun: 1/2
Besharri : 0/2
Jibeil: 3/3
Keserwan: 4/5
Maten: 6/8
Beirut I: 3/5
Beirut II: 2/4
Beirut III: 0/10
Baabda: 6/6
Aley: 1/5
Shouf: 0/8
Saida: 0/2
Jezzine: 3/3
Zahrani : 3/3
Nabatieh: 3/3
Sour: 4/4
Bent Jbeil : 3/3
Marjaayoun: 5/5
Baalbek: 10/10
Zahle: 5/7
West Beka: 1/6
Total = 67/128

Your prediction somehow make sense, but for Saida...I think Oussama Saad has big hope to win! I think 1/2 is fair, Bahia will win, but a big number of Saida people do seriously hate the person of Fouad el Sanioura, those people who are neutral, they will prefer Oussama Saad on Fouad. Fouad and Rafic Hariri are seriously hated by a big number of Saida people, remember the municipal elections 5 years ago?

[Leb-Can]

Originally Posted by totally_neutral

Your prediction somehow make sense, but for Saida...I think Oussama Saad has big hope to win! I think 1/2 is fair, Bahia will win, but a big number of Saida people do seriously hate the person of Fouad el Sanioura, those people who are neutral, they will prefer Oussama Saad on Fouad. Fouad and Rafic Hariri are seriously hated by a big number of Saida people, remember the municipal elections 5 years ago?

My prediction is very safe;
If we will get other seats, other than Saida's Ousama Saad seat we have more chances in;
1- Keserwan 5th seat.
2- West Beka; more than 1 seat (Hariri has less influence in W Beka, Syrian facor is very strong, Jomblat-Berri factor etc..).
Ousama Saad supporters are very serious, but the city being mostly Sunni and Hariri's $Millions$ cannot be underestimated. There will be a strong battle, but I guess Hariri will take the 2 seats.
Plus.. If there will be any big surprise, in any part of Lebanon, I'm expecting a negative surprise to M14 coalition for not being coherent and well coordinated coalition, each party looking for his own benefit, and screwing the immediate ally.

[KingNothing]

I was wondering why 5/7 in zahle? who other than fattouch have a chance of winning ?

[Leb-Can]

Originally Posted by KingNothing

I was wondering why 5/7 in zahle? who other than fattouch have a chance of winning ?

My Prediction is very Safe;
If Fattoush was able to pass in the last election, it doesn't mean that this year he will.
Polls predict that up to 4 seats are safe to opposition in Zahle, in the other 3, chances of opposition is still higher, but there might be possibility of failure, depending on the future progress. So for safe calculation I took 5/7. Ending with total of 67 seats.
In the coming days, and with the approach of June 7, M14 Alliance will have more and more disputes, which will end up with a complete failure.
In my deep believe, I feel that opposition will get safely 67 to 74 seats. In June 8 many exchange of places will happen in favour of opposition which will become the "Mualat".
I do not think Jomblat will stay in M14 after June 7. Pay attention, while forming his list and coalition and while giving directives on election day to his followers might be completely different things, having in mind that while exchanging alliance, maximum numbers follow him. (Eg Adwan will not follow him), so that name might be crossed out last minute, on the election day. On the other hand he will never try to push any FPM candidate.

[Sirius]

[Führer]

Originally Posted by Sirius

This is the most reasonable scenario for the upcoming elections. It makes all the sense in the world.

[jimy86leb]

Originally Posted by Placebo

its going to be very close, we're talking about 2 or 3 Mps difference, and yet, HA/Tashnag will let go 2 of the 4 Mps of bEIRUT 2. In vain. whereas the loyalists are doing whatever they can to take as much mP

I totally agree ... If the opposition can win 4 seats in BeirutII ... why have just 2 !!! these 2 can make the difference for who ever would win the majority !!!!!

[Lebanesegirl]

Originally Posted by jimy86leb

I totally agree ... If the opposition can win 4 seats in BeirutII ... why have just 2 !!! these 2 can make the difference for who ever would win the majority !!!!!

it was agreed on in Doha!! we actually can't do anything it will go 2 to us and 2 to them!!