How many seats must FPM win to become the majority?

[Busfeir]

Emile Rahme is with Hizb

[Abotareq93]

Originally Posted by Garabet B

there's also 4 seats in beirut 2 , the way things are going i think the opposition will get those all 4, or if they want to stick to doha agreement we'll get 2.

One of the MPs in Beirut 2, Amine Sherri from HA, is already for the oppostion so if we apply Doha deal, we will gain only one MP, an Armenian.

[unitedlb]

The opposition will almost certainly win the following 47 seats:

10/10 seats in Baalback/Hermel
6/6 seats in Baabda
5/5 seats in Marjeyoun/Hasbayya
4/4 seats in Tyre
3/3 seats in Zgharta
3/3 seats in Zahrani
3/3 seats in Nabatiyye
3/3 seats in Bent Jbeil
3/3 seats in Jbeil
3/3 seats in Jezzine
2/4 seats in Beirut II (assuming Doha deal is implemented)
1/8 seats in Maten to Hagop Pakradounian
1/5 seats in Aley to Talal Arslan


The loyalists will almost certainly win the following 44 seats:

10/10 seats in Beirut III
8/8 seats in Tripoli (assuming that Mikati enters Hariri's block)
8/8 seats in Chouf
7/7 seats in Akkar
4/5 seats in Aley
3/3 seats in Minye/Donniyye
2/2 seats in Bsharre
2/4 seats in Beirut II (assuming Doha deal is implemented)


Of the remaining 37 seats, I predict that the opposition will further win:

5-7/7 of the remaining seats in Matn (most likely 5)
4-7/7 seats in Zahle (most likely 5)
3-5/5 seats in Keserwen (most likely 5)
2-5/5 seats in Beirut I (most likely 3)
2-3/3 seats in Koura (most likely 2)
1-2/2 seats in Batroun (most likely 1)
0-1/2 seats in Saida (most likely 0)
0-2/6 Western Bekaa/Rashayya (most likely 0)

I predict that the opposition will win 68 seats with 64 seats as a worst-case scenario and 79 seats as a best-case scenario.

My predicted 68 seats for the opposition will be distributed as follows:
- 3 SSNP (1 each in Koura, Baalback and Marjeyoun)
- 3 Marada (3 in Zgharta)
- 5 Tashnaq (2 Beirut I, 1 Beirut II, 1 Matn and 1 Zahle)
- 1 LDP (Arslan in Aley)
- 4 People's Bloc (4 in Zahle)
- 26 Hezbollah/AMAL/Baath (8 in Baalback/Hermel, 1 in Baabda, 4 in Marjeyoun/Hasbayya, 4 in Tyre, 3 in Bent Jbeil, 3 in Zahrani, 3 in Nabatiyye, 1 in Beirut II)
- 25 FPM + independent FPM allies (5 in Keserwen, 5 in Matn, 4 in Baabda, 3 in Jbeil, 3 in Jezzine, 1 in Batroun, 1 in Koura, 1 in Beirut I, 1 in Zahle, 1 in Baalback)
- 1 unknown (Druze seat in Baabda)

This assumes that Emile Rahme is counted as an FPM ally rather than a Hezbollah ally. So the C&R block will contain about 37 MPs (25 FPM + independent FPM allies, 5 Tashnaq, 4 People's block and 3 Marada). I'm really not sure who will get the Druze seat in Baabda. It may be Wiam Wahhab, a Talal Arslan backed person from LDP, a Berri backed person, or a Aoun backed person from the A3war family. Assuming that Talal Arslan and the Baabda Druze MP do not form part of the C&R block, there will be 31/68 opposition seats not part of the C&R block.

And finally, to answer the question in the thread (and it took a long time coming, because I like to place my complete predictions), the 31 non-C&R opposition seats all fall in the 47 guaranteed list at the top of my posting. This means that for the opposition to gain majority, the C&R list must win 34 seats. That's the golden number and our aim --> 34 seats. Alternatively, if Emile Rahme is not to be considered part of the C&R block and if Berri has his way by taking either the second Shiite seat in Baabda or a Maronite seat in Jbeil (surely he can't be given both, there is no way that Aoun will or should accept), then the C&R block will need 32 seats. That's 1/4 of the parliament and will perhaps make the C&R block the largest in the entire parliament.

[Tsunami27]

Beside all the predictions
The only thing I am sure is that C&R will be the largest bloc in the parlement.

[airboy]

Hi, i hope you win the majority, but honestly, doesn't you think you are going to lose votes because of your Hezb. alliance? I have nothing against Hezb. and i like theirs and yours courage to stand up against the West (USA). Im a none Lebanese so i don't have that much knowledge of the contry, but i can't see how you can get more votes from the christians by joining "there team" after what has happend since the elections?
Well good luck, going to be a intresting election to follow even for me :)

[Dark Angel]

Originally Posted by airboy

Hi, i hope you win the majority, but honestly, doesn't you think you are going to lose votes because of your Hezb. alliance? I have nothing against Hezb. and i like theirs and yours courage to stand up against the West (USA). Im a none Lebanese so i don't have that much knowledge of the contry, but i can't see how you can get more votes from the christians by joining "there team" after what has happend since the elections?
Well good luck, going to be a intresting election to follow even for me :)

how did you come to the conclusion that "we joined their team"? everybody made concessions, and a new team was formed to oppose the current majority; notably FPM-HA reached a very mature understanding that brought peace to Shiites and Chrsitians alike; why's that supposed to alienate Christian voters? in my opinion it is one of FPM's strong points to further attract the Christian vote.

[Revolution1989]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

how did you come to the conclusion that "we joined their team"? everybody made concessions, and a new team was formed to oppose the current majority; notably FPM-HA reached a very mature understanding that brought peace to Shiites and Chrsitians alike; why's that supposed to alienate Christian voters? in my opinion it is one of FPM's strong points to further attract the Christian vote.

DA, honestly... a non-Lebanese "Swedish" person, saying that we're standing up to the West and talking about how we're going to lose the Christian support because of HA?!?

I excluded Joseph_Lubnan from the list because his english is too good compared to the above... Maybe United?

To go back to the thread: large conversion over 30 to 35 seats needed by C&R: Jbeil (3) + Kesserwan (5) + Metn (6) + Ba3bda (4) = 18 (+2 for HA/other in Ba3bda) + 5 in ZaHle, 3 in Beirut 1, 3 in Zgharta, 2 in Batroun / Koura, 2 in Beirut 2 and 2 in Jezzine (+1 for Amal) = 35

[echecalger]

بين تمني الوزير باسيل بأن تتجاوز كتلة التغيير والاصلاح ال40 نائبا وجزم العماد ميشال عون بأنها في حدود 35 نائبا واقسام انطوان زهرا-قوات اللبنانية- في احد البرامج بانها ستكون بين 5و8 نواب فقط اين الحقيقة؟

محاولا الاجابة عن هذا السؤال بعيدا عن المشاعر سأستعرض المحافظات والاقضية معتمدا النتئج السابقة التحالفات واستطلاعات الرأي

أولا بيروت بها ثلاث دوائر يرشح فيها الجنرال مرشحا ارمنيا في دائرتها الثانية فوزه مضمون في الاولى للتيار خمس مرشحين تنتظرهم معركة كسر عظم يرجح ان ينجح فيها المرشح الماروني مسعود الاشقر و مرشح ارمني واحد على الاقل وحظوظ ابو جمرا جيدة فيما تبدو مهمة الصحناوي شبه مستحيلة في وجه ميشال فرعون

وعليه ستتراوح كتلة الاصلاح في بيروت بين 1 و6 والعدد المرجح هو 3 ثانيا الشمال في عكار الخرق مستحيل حسب كل استطلاعات الرأي في زغرتا المقاعد الثلاث للوزير فرنجية -والذي قد يتخذ من تجربة الوزير الياس سكاف مثلا ويشكل كتلة تنظم الى التكتل- مع وجود امكانية ضعيفة لخرق من معوض في البترون نجاح الوزير باسيل بشخصه فقط وارد جدا مع صعوبة اسقاط بطرس حرب في الكوره مرشحان-تيار و مردة- نجاح احدهما على الاقل مضمون -

وعليه ستتراوح كتلة الجنرال في الشمال بين 3 و7 والمرجح هو 6

في البقاع شمالا مقعد مضمون لاميل رحمة في زحلة من 3 الى 7 والمرجح 5 وفي البقاع الغربي يترشح عن التيار هنري شديد لكن فوزه صعب جدا وعليه الكتلة في البقاع ستكون بين 4 و 9 والمرجح هو 6

في الجنوب سيكون للجنرال مرشحان في جزين فوزمهما مضمون
اما الجبل فهو خزان التكتل في جبيل المقاعد الثلاث مضمونة في كسروان خمس مقاعد مع امكانية ضعيفة للخرق بمقعد المتن اعقد دائرة في الجيل نجاح كنعان وبقردونيان مضمون وكذلك يبدو وضع مخيبر جيد وفي الاجمال سيكون للجنرال بين 4 و7 مقاعد والمرجح هو 6 في بعبدا سيرشح الجنرال 4 أو خمس نواب نجاحهم مضمون اما امكانية الخرق في عاليه والشوف فهي غير موجودة
وعليه كتلة الجنرال في الجبل ستكون بين15 و20 والمرجح هو 18

اذا و في الاجمال سيكو ن للجنرال بين 25 و44 اما المرجح هو 35
اذن 35 مقعد للتغيير والاصلاح فأهلا بالتغيير وأهلا بالاصلاح زكريا طالب جامعي الجزائر echecalger@hotmail.com

[supersonichadi]

In a meeting with MP Kamil Khoury, he said that the C&R block number will be between 35 to 40

[Placebo]

its going to be very close, we're talking about 2 or 3 Mps difference, and yet, HA/Tashnag will let go 2 of the 4 Mps of bEIRUT 2. In vain. whereas the loyalists are doing whatever they can to take as much mP