How many seats must FPM win to become the majority?

[Busfeir]

The parliament has 128 seats, so a majority requires winning 65 seats.

We know that Hizbullah is only running eleven candidates (this is what Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah announced), but they will also bring along at least three more non-Shiite MP's in Hizb-dominant districts (Emile Rahme, Walid Sukkarieh, Kamel Rifai). This produces fourteen seats, i.e. the same number they won in 2005.

We can expect Amal to win a similar number to what they won in 2005 as well, i.e. 14 seats. Altogether, the Resistance and Development block (Hizb/Amal/SSNP/others) won 35 seats in 2005.

Let's say history repeats itself and our allies win 35 seats again in 2009. This means that, in order to get to 65 seats, Change & Reform needs to win the remaining 30. If we assume that Skaff will win 5 again and Suleiman Frangieh will win 3, this means that the FPM needs to win 22 seats on its own (an increase of 8 seats from 2005). And this is just to win the slimmest majority possible.

If the opposition is to win 70 seats (as Sheikh Naim Qassem has projected), that means that FPM needs to win 27 by itself!

Is my reasoning wrong?

Right now, the official FPM elections website is showing that we are running 17 candidates only. Does anyone know if there is a more recent list?

Cheers.

[dodzi]

The opposition should simply get, in addition to the 2005 results, Baabda and Zgharta... Koura and Beirut I would be a plus...

[Garabet B]

right now on 17 candidates are OFFICIALLY endorsed by FPM. there are more to come in the few comming days .

[Garabet B]

Originally Posted by dodzi

The opposition should simply get, in addition to the 2005 results, Baabda and Zgharta... Koura and Beirut I would be a plus...

there's also 4 seats in beirut 2 , the way things are going i think the opposition will get those all 4, or if they want to stick to doha agreement we'll get 2.

[Busfeir]

We don't have Murr this time around. That's at least one seat, probably two. So we need to make those up somewhere.

[vegojimbo]

HA/Amal managed to win 35 seats in 2005 but after a quadruple alliance with FM and PSP. They won 1-2 MPs in Rashaya (which is a bit hard to do so this time around). Add the fact that Jezzine is no longer in their grasp, so HA/Amal/SSNP in the South & Beqaa & Beirut could gather no more than 30 MPs (There remains 2 seats for SSNP in Metn & Koura. So we can add 1 to 30 and have 31 MPs since in Metn it's difficult for Achkar to win. We also add the 2 shiite seats in Zahle for Amal and Baabda for HA and we have 33 MPs).
Hence, it's up to C&R to get 32 MPs as a minimum. Let's give a rough estimation:
- 3 in Jezzine
- 3 in Jbeil
- 4 in Keserwen (max 5)
- 6 in Metn (max 7 bc one for SSNP which is not part of C&R)
- 3 in Beirut 1 (max 5)
- 4 in Zahle (max 5 bc one to Amal)
- 5 in Baabda (bc 1 to HA)
- 1 in Batroun
- 1 in koura +1 SSNP (2 max bc one to SSNP which is not part of C&R)
- 3 in Zgharta
- 1 in Aley

PS: about Beirut 2, I didn't include it as in 2005 I believe HA/Amal had one or 2 candidates who won in beirut alongside FM.

That's 34 to the dot which is the bare minimum FPM+allies (Marada, Skaff, Tashnag) can get. If we add the max number of MPs the alliances can bring, we have 6 additional seats.
Hence 34+33= 67 MPs minimum (the SSNP seat in Koura is already counted with HA/Amal, same for one of the shiite seats in Baabda)
Maximum 67+6 +1 for SSNP in Metn= 74 MPs.
However, the minimum is also the expected number according to pollsters. So my guess it's 67-68 MPs (out of which 34 for C&R since we're taking the minimum).

Edited: I forgot about Saida. Maybe Saad can manage an upset and win, hence the number of expected C&R MPs rises to 35 (minimum)-41 (maximum). Though, it's way too much unpredictable there, so I'll stick with the 67-68 MPs for opposition in 2009.

[lebanese1]

The 100% guaranteed seats so far for the opposition:

- Baalback: 10
- Aley: 1 (Irslan)
- Zahrani: 3
- Nabatieh: 3
- Sour: 4
- Bint Jbeil: 3
- Mrjeyoun: 3
- Hasbaya: 2
- Beirut 2: 2

Total guaranteed seats: 31 seats.

The loyalists' guaranteed seats:
- Akkar: 7
- Tripoli: 8
- Menyeh: 1
- Donniyyeh: 2
- Beirut 2: 2
- Beirut 3: 10
- Aley: 4
- Chouf: 8
- Saida: 1
- Becharreh: 2

Total guaranteed seats: 45 seats

So C&R + opposition in West Bekaa + Oussam Saad in Saida must win: 34/52 seats to guarantee 65 MPs for the opposition which is very possible.

[mickey117]

I think we should win:

3 in Zgharta
3 in Koura
1 in Batroun
3 in Jbeil
5 in Kesserwen
6 in Maten (Sammy and Murr will get elected)
6 in Baabda
3 in Beirut I (2 armenians + Poussy)
2 at least in Beirut II
1 in Aley
3 in Jezzine
3 in Zahrani
4 in Sour
3 in Bint Jbeil
3 in Nabatiyeh
5 in Marjeyoun Hasbaya
6 in Zahle
10 in Baalback el Hermil

That should give us about 70 seats for sure, in addition we might get

1 in Tripoly if there's a deal or maybe the alawite seat will go to us to avoid any conflict

2 more in Maten in case we're really optimistic

2 more in Beirut 1 in case we're really optimistic

2 more in beirut II in case there's no agreement

1 in Aaley might succeed

1 in Saida if Ossama manages to get elected (very possible)

2 in West Bekaa in the best case scenario (Abdelrahim Mrad and Nasser Nasrallah)

1 in Zahleh if Fattouch doesn't win

IMHO 70 is the minimum, 82 is the maximum

[mickey117]

And don't forget that 14 march will most probably lose 3 or 4 seats because of Mikati

[kashta]

Za3im Franjieh 3
Skaff 5
Tashnag 5
FPM between 14-15

btw emil rahme will be with hizb or ur bloc ?