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Default 7th October 2008

tayyar.org - Lebanon News -Global financial crisis creates worries among Lebanese


Global financial crisis creates worries among Lebanese


Lebanese Finance Minister Mohammad Chatah said on Monday the global financial crisis had created worries among the Lebanese but assured them that their money is 'safe.'

Chatah, who met with Lebanese President Michel Suleiman at the presidential palace in Baabda, said 'the Lebanese currency and the banking sector are safe.'

Chatah also assured the president that the deposits of the Lebanese and non-Lebanese in Lebanon were secure.

'The size of the increase in deposits until the end of September, 2008 amounted to more than 7 billion dollars,' Chatah noted, which he said was an indication that Lebanon's financial situation was secure.
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Default 7th October 2008

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Originally Posted by tmeniazar View Post
it all boils down to where is the money invested, if the lebanese banks invested in the us market like most the banks all over the world then they will be affected and they will affect the central bank, if not then we are safe.

صحيح أن المصارف اللبنانية تستثمر أموالها في أمبركا وغيرها، ولكن ضمن مصارف ضخمة ، أرضيّتها ثابتة، ويسمح بها مصرف لبنان
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Default 7th October 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post

What are the implications on a national level and is there any plan to face the current and coming waves?
The most imminent danger would come if oil prices drop sharply and gulf economies go in reverse.You will then see massive unemployement in those countries and a large number of expats coming back to Lebanon to join the other inmates in the asylum.

Every cloud has a silver lining though. Imagine like an additional 200k people needing more aragueels to enjoy while talking about politics day and night. If I had any money left, investing in fa7m and tanbak would be my first choice.

So really it may not be so bad for Lebanon being such a weird place. Whatever money these Lebs in the gulf have saved up could be used to spur local consumption like going to night clubs restaurants and coffee shops to talk politics and hate each other.

I reckon happy days are here again for Lebanon, albeit filled with the aroma of tanbak.
Those that dont have cash in the bank to use, I am afraid will have to get their wives to do the house chores and give up their maids while the husbands do what they do best: become political analysta and smoke argeelehs and occasionally cigars.

My crystal ball tells me Lebanon, as werid as it is, will come out ahead in this crisis until the savings dry up and then will do what it's best at: begging the world for aid, proudly I might add.
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Default 7th October 2008

Lebanon won't be severely affected by the crisis because

1- we are already in a crisis
2- the market is small...like a dekeneh compared to Regional and International markets
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Default 7th October 2008

Arab Stock Markets Plunge Amid World Financial Turmoil

tayyar.org - Lebanon News -Arab Stock Markets Plunge Amid World Financial Turmoil




Stock markets in the Arabian Gulf and across much of the Arab world are in a swoon after Asian markets plunged following Wall Street losses Friday. Many large Gulf investors have money invested in U.S. equities and real estate but the steep recent drop in oil prices is affecting their revenues and causing market instability, as Edward Yeranian reports from Beirut.

Investors and brokers wore worried looks as the morning progressed and the main Gulf stock exchanges lost billions of dollars. The Saudi stock exchange lost 10-percent at the opening bell and remained nine-percent lower for most of the session.

Exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi were about five-percent lower, after losing almost 7 percent Sunday.

Al Arabiya TV reported that much of the slide was due to a collapse in the real estate and property development sectors which have seen tremendous growth in the United Arab Emirates in recent years.

Few Arab stock markets were unscathed, with Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar all losing at least four percent. Most Arab and Gulf markets appeared to take their cue from Asia after Tokyo and Shanghai lost around five-percent.

Brokers in the Gulf suggested investors began panicking after the price of oil, which plays a large part in Gulf economies, fell below 90-dollars a barrel in early trading.

In neighboring Jordan, parliament member Mohammed Zareeqat told a financial website that his home town of Jarash had become a "disaster area" due to stock market losses. "Ninety-percent of our citizens have been hit by the slide," he said.

The relatively small Beirut stock exchange lost just over five-percent although traders insisted that Lebanon is usually an "economic oasis" in times of international turmoil. The Egyptian exchange bucked the trend and climbed slightly.

The Beirut Daily Star newspaper's business editor, Osama Habib, insisted he is "optimistic in the short to medium term" and that Gulf and Arab exchanges should stabilize after a few days of turbulence provoked by world events.

"But, as I said, it is natural, you know, it is a global village, now. You cannot say that I will not be hit by the other. They will be affected. But the economies in the G.C.C. are still strong. You have the oil as the main source of revenue. Another factor, which may have affected the stock exchanges is the falling oil prices. Today, the barrel of oil is below 90-dollars," he said.

Habib was less optimistic for the long term, especially if the U.S. program to buy "toxic assets" from troubled banks fails to stop a global slide into recession.

"If this financial crisis turns into recession, for example, a global recession, it may in the long run affect the G.C.C. stock exchanges if the crisis continues," he added. "Now, if the U.S. measures to check the crisis ... if it did not succeed, there will be some concern, of course."

One veteran Gulf investor told CNBC's Arabic language business channel that a "global panic" was hitting all international markets. "It is difficult to say when a panic will stop," he concluded.
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Default 7th October 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by >Watani< View Post
صحيح أن المصارف اللبنانية تستثمر أموالها في أمبركا وغيرها، ولكن ضمن مصارف ضخمة ، أرضيّتها ثابتة، ويسمح بها مصرف لبنان
Sorry man, but what do you mean by large banks???
only the large banks are falling, cause they have appetite to the risk more than the small ones, that's why, they are falling.
Lehman Brothers total balance is 5 times the GDP of France! Large bank, dont you think?
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Default 7th October 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aoune View Post
In reality believe it or not the Banks in Lebanon are immune because the Central Bank has banned them from buying junk US bonds and also selling short stocks. This is why the Lebanese economy in general will not be as hit as others such as England . Yet with this said because companies in the US that are American are closing or maybe there subsidiaries in Lebanon will close thus unemployment will go up by a little.
All commercial banks in a well-regulated system have strict guidelines to follow when investing in low-quality bonds and equity. I'm not even sure if short-selling is allowed, but if it is, it would be very minimal.

What matters here is the exposure of our banks to mortgage-backed securities. If they are heavily invested and need to take significant losses on these investments, then they could face liquidity problems.

From a quick look, the exposure seems minimal.
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Default 7th October 2008

DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--Lebanese bank deposits surged by $7 billion during the first nine months as expats sent more of their money home amid worries over the global credit crunch, the country's finance minister told Zawya Dow Jones.

"Lebanon has managed to avoid the negative effects of the global credit crunch," Mohammad Shatah said in a phone interview Tuesday.

Shatah said the annualized increase is equal to 17% of the country's economy, compared to an average of 11% during the past years.

Lebanese banks have managed to remain stable thanks to combined balance sheet of $90 billion, three-times the size of the country's gross domestic product, Shatah said.

"There is no perceived risk. Our banks have no significant exposure to subprime assets," he said, noting that there could be some exposure on the individual level.

Shatah also projected 5-6% GDP growth in Lebanon in 2008 and an inflation of 11%, "mainly imported due to the currency link with the dollar".

"Lebanon has made progress toward improving its public finances and fiscal positions," he said, forecasting the country's debt to be around $46 billion this year.

Lebanon's government debt of 170% of GDP and a deficit of 11% of GDP are amongst the highest in the region.

Debt Reduction

Progress towards reducing Lebanon's heavy debt burden has been stymied since 2005 by a number of political shocks. The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in early 2005; the war with Israel in 2006 and the subsequent political standoff between government and opposition that left Lebanon stagnating for 18 months have all quelled the economy.

Political tensions came to a head in May and prompted the Doha Accord, brokered by the government of Qatar. In the following three months parliament reconvened and elected a new president, a new government was agreed and won a vote of confidence in August.

"There is now very high confidence in the country's banking system. Lebanon is supported by the Lebanese Diaspora, which provides substantial transfers and investment, and deposits in Lebanon's banks which have proven strong in very tough environments," Shatah said.

The value of assets in Lebanon have appreciated substantially and on average by 40% since the beginning of the year, according to reports issued by the central bank.

"This is the result of real demand essentially from Lebanese working overseas," he said.

According to central bank reports, the decline of interest rates on the U.S. dollar triggered a continuous demand to buy the Lebanese pound, reducing the value of dollar deposits to 73% August 2008, from 79% last year.
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Default 8th October 2008




الأزمة الماليّة تُباغت لبنان من الخليج!

هل ينتقل القلق من «وول ستريت»... إلى لبنان؟ بعدما اتضح أوّل من أمس أنّ أزمة الائتمان العالميّة لن توفّر الأسواق الماليّة في البلدان النامية، يزداد التساؤل عن الانعكاسات على لبنان الذي ظهر حتى الآن أنّ الأزمة بعيدة عنه؛ ولكن لتلك الأزمة تأثيرات على بلدان الخليج، وبالتالي أثر غير مباشر على الاقتصاد اللبناني. ما هو الخطر عليه فيما تسارع المصارف المركزيّة حول العالم إلى طمأنة الأسواق؟

حسن شقراني

لم يكن للأزمة الماليّة التي تعصف بالاقتصاد العالمي، منذ نشوئها في الولايات المتّحدة قبل أكثر من عام، وحتى الآن، تأثير مباشر على الاقتصاد اللبناني. فالقطاع المفترض أن يكون معنياً بانعكاساتها هو القطاع المصرفي، ومن المعروف في لبنان أنّ البنوك التجاريّة لا توظّف سيولة في المنتجات الماليّة المعقّدة وفي عمليّات التوريق، وذلك لسببين: الأوّل هو أنّ التوظيف في سندات الخزينة وإقراض الحكومة يوفّران مدخولاً مريحاً هو عبارة عن فوائد مرتفعة. والثاني هو أنّ مصرف لبنان يفرض عليها قواعد ثابتة في موضوع التعاطي بالأصول الماليّة العالية المخاطر. لذا فهي لا تضطرّ إلى تنويع استثماراتها بهدف تكثيف الأرباح.

والأزمة التي لا تنفكّ تتطوّر حدّتها في مختلف الأسواق الماليّة، تمسّ مباشرة المصارف التجاريّة (من ناحية فقدان السيولة وارتفاع أكلاف الإقراض بسبب فقدان الثقة)، ولكنّ لانعكاستها على لبنان قنوات أخرى، غير مباشرة، تتمثّل بما سينطبق من تطوّرها على بلدان الخليج العربي.

فبحسب مدير صندوق النقد الدولي في لبنان، إدوارد غاردنر، سيؤدّي تأثّر اقتصادات بلدان الخليج العربي إلى توليد موجات سلبيّة تعصف بلبنان من خلال تأثيرات تقلّص عائدات المهاجرين اللبنانيّين في الخليج. فتلك الاقتصادات، رغم اعتمادها على مبالغ ضخمة وفرتها عائدات الصادرات النفطيّة في ظلّ أسعار قياسيّة للوقود الأحفوري، بدأت تشعر بالوخز من أزمة الائتمان المنفلشة، وذلك الوخز قد يصيب لبنان الذي يعتمد في جانب من «صموده غير العادي» على عائدات المغتربين، وبينهم المتمركزون في الخليج العربي.

ومثلما يتطوّر النمط في البلدان المتقدّمة، يمكن أن تتخذ الحكومات الخليجيّة إجراءات لاحتواء انعكاسات أزمة الائتمان. فإسبانيا على سبيل المثال تلوّح بترحيل المهاجرين ذوي الأصول المغربيّة للحدّ قدر الإمكان من نزف اقتصادها الذي كان خلال السنوات الماضية أحد محرّكات النموّ في منطقة اليورو. وبحسب غاردنر، فإنّ التطوّرات السلبيّة في الخليج العربي قد ترفع من نسبة البطالة لدى اللبنانيّين وقد تؤثّر على نسبة النموّ الاقتصادي في بلاد الأرز، المتوقّع أنّ تزيد هذا العام على 3 في المئة

كذلك، من غير المؤكّد إلى أين ستتجه رؤوس الأموال الخليجيّة الخائفة من التوظيفات في الأسواق الماليّة. وفي هذا الصدد، لفت غاردنر، الذي تحدّث في محاضرة نظّمتها جمعيّة رجال الأعمال اللبنانيّة ـــــ الهولنديّة في فندق فينيسيا أمس، إلى أنّ «من الصعب التنبّؤ بما سيحصل» في سوق رؤوس الأموال الخليجيّة، «فالجميع يهرعون نحو الملاجئ الآمنة، ولكن ما هي تلك الملاجئ الآمنة؟»؛ والتطوّرات في الخليج قد تقلّل من حجم الاستثمارات الأجنبيّة المباشرة الآتية إلى لبنان، ولكن هل الاستثمار في لبنان آمن أكثر من الودائع المصرفيّة أو حتّى الاستثمار في الأوراق الماليّة؟

أسئلة كثيرة تعقيدها ينبع من تعقّد الأزمة الماليّة المتطوّرة، ويبدو أنّ الإجابات عنها متعلّقة بالوجهة التي سيتّخذها الاقتصاد العالمي الذي يتّضح يوماً بعد يوم أنّه متّجه نحو ركود حاد: أسباب ذلك الركود كانت الأسعار المرتفعة للمواد الأوليّة، وتتطوّر مع تطوّر انعدام الثقة بين المصارف والمؤسّسات الماليّة.

وهذا التطوّر هو ما دفع المصارف المركزيّة الكبرى في العالم أمس، إلى إعلان خطّة منسّقة من أجل توحيد الجهود لتوفير السيولة اللازمة حتى آخر العام، للنظام المصرفي العالمي الغارق في معمعة فقدان الثقة. فقد أعلن الاحتياطي الفدرالي الأميركي جدولاً لتأمين قروض وخطوط ائتمانيّة عبر عمليّات الـ«SWAP»، بقيمة 620 مليار دولار، تقدّم إلى نظرائه حول العالم.

وبحسب بيان أصدره المصرف المركزي الأوروبي، فإنّ هذه الخطوات تأتي لمجاراة «الاختناقات في عمليّات التمويل القصيرة المدى»، وذلك بعدما شهدت البورصات يوم أوّل من أمس، تراجعات حادّة أظهرت بوضوح أنّ خطّة الإنقاذ الأميركيّة لم تؤثّر بسرعة وفاعلية على الأسواق الماليّة.

وتأتي هذه التطوّرات فيما شدّد صندوق النقد الدولي، في تقريره عن «الاستقرار المالي العالمي»، على أنّه «في الوقت الذي تشهد فيه الأسواق حول العالم أزمة متزايدة، تبرز الحاجة إلى التعاون الدولي وإلى الإجراءات الحازمة، من أجل إعادة الثقة إلى النظام المصرفي العالمي»، والفشل في تحقيق ذلك التعاون سيكون له أثر بالغ على الاقتصادات الحقيقيّة.

ما مدى الأثر الذي سيمس لبنان؟ الموضوع لا يزال غامضاً ومتعلّقاً بكيفيّة تعاطي بلدان الخليج مع الأزمة. ولكن من الواضح أنّ نسبة النموّ المتوقّعة ستتأثّر لا محال مثلها مثل الاستثمارات الأجنبيّة المباشرة.

عدد الاربعاء ٨ تشرين أول ٢٠٠٨
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Default 8th October 2008

we are getting ready by saying : it wont afect us its none of our business !
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