Quote:
Originally Posted by Jumpo  History repeats itself but not from 2005.
When June 8th came, it took us back to 1992. And the next period will be similar to the 1992 to 2004. The details:
0- In a nutshell, the country will be governed by the regional powers (Syria+KSA) with international blessing
1- 7ariri will:
a- lead the government in general
b- will set the economical agenda and blowing up the debt (3alf el dayn)
c- use its political power to increase its financial power and vice-versa
d- use christian pawns to show its inclusive side
e- control the presidency
f- turn a blind eye with respect to the Hizballah weapon
g- stop any reform projects (especially to the judiciary system)
h- deprive the Lebanese people from the basics (electricity, water,...)
2- Jumblat will continue to be the parasite sucking the blood from Hariri and the country in general.
3- Berri will be the Shiite cover for the government and will get his cut.
4- Hizbollah will:
a- turn a blind eye on the bad government and corruption
b- keep to its weapons and increase the arsenal
c- get ready for the next Israeli war
5- Jins 3atil (long list including religious figures) will
a- be drunk with the victory of screwing up Michel Aoun's plans
b- blame Michel Aoun when they realize that they are marginalized by Sa3d
c- call for federalism and pray for Israel to interfere
6- As for the General, I am not sure :-( He is unpredictable and uncontrollable as was described by the US administration. How much can he do with 27 deputies in a country that knows nothing about accountability and a people that adores its butchers. Actually, I am looking forward to his speech on Wednesday.
In summary, the country will be back to the Syrian status quo of the 1990s.
Moreover, it will be ready for another round of internal war whenever the Americans instruct Jumblat to tell us that the car bombs came from Da7yi. |
I agree with most of this, but disagree on two points:
1. Minor disagreement: Jumblatt and Hariri: I think we will see a falling out between the two.
2. Major disagreement: The loyalists will intensify their campagin against Hezbollah's weapons at the behest of the west, and exacerbate the Sunni/Shia conflict at the behest of Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah, in turn, will not turn a blind eye to Hariri control of the country.
11th June 2009
