History is about to repeat itself!

[Diabolo_7]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

HISTORY IS ABOUT TO REPEAT ITSELF!

The results are out, with the loyalists winning 71 seats (includes 3 independents) and the opposition led by General Michel Aoun winning 57 seats.

Despite the loyalists winning the elections, a major point that has gone unnoticed is the huge success of General Michel Aoun in these elections. The election results once again proved that General Michel Aoun is the undisputed Christian leader of Lebanon. The Change & Reform (C&R) block headed by Aoun won the Christian vote in 8/11 Christian-majority regions as follows:

- Zgharta
- Jbeil
- Keserwen
- Maten
- Baabda
- Jezzine
- Zahle (Sunni vote ensured that loyalist list won in Zahle)
- Koura (Sunni vote ensured that loyalist list won in Koura)

The only 3 Christian-majority regions where C&R lost in the Christian street were Batroun, Bsharre and Ashrafiyye (extremely close).

Aoun also won the Christian vote in other qadas with a sizeable Christian minority, such as Chouf, Aley, Akkar and Western Bekaa/Rashayya.

What does that mean in terms of block sizes?

- Aoun's block = 27 seats (includes 20 seats for Free Patriotic Movement)
- Owwet = 5 seats
- Kataeb = 5 seats
- Ahrar = 1 seat
- Ketle Wataniyye = 0 seats
- Former Qornet Shehwen = 1 seat (Butrous Harb)
- Independents + President = 1 seat (Michel Murr)
- Independent March 14 = 1 seat (Nayla Tueni)

This is 20 seats won by just the FPM (excludes 7 Christian allies) compared to a combined number of 14 seats won by every loyalist Christian grouping in the country.

These numbers cannot be disputed with. Following these elections, Aoun has actually extended his bloc size from 21 to 27 seats and is once again the undisputed Christian leader of Lebanon.

And for those who can't work out why Aoun did extremely well in the Christian street and yet the opposition lost the elections, the answer lies in the election law. In the Sunni- and Druze-majority areas (streets that are polarised for loyalists), the results were:

Western Bekaa/Rashayya: 6 loyalists
Akkar: 7 loyalists
Tripoli: 8 loyalists
Minye/Denniyye: 3 loyalists
Beirut III: 10 loyalists
Beirut II: 2 loyalists
Aley: 4 loyalists
Chouf: 8 loyalists
Sidon: 2 loyalists
Total loyalists = 50 seats

In the Shiite-majority areas, (streets that are polarized for opposition) the results were:

Baalback/Hermel: 10 opposition
Marjeyoun Hasbayya: 5 opposition
Tyre: 4 opposition
Bent Jbeil: 3 opposition
Nabatiyye: 3 opposition
Zahrani: 3 opposition
Beirut II: 2 opposition
Aley: 1 opposition
Total opposition = 31 seats

This meant that Aoun needed to win 33/47 seats (70%) in the Christian-majority regions to reach the 64 seats required for the opposition to win half of parliament, while the Christian loyalists needed to win just 14/47 seats (30%) to reach 64 seats. However, Zahle experienced a remarkable increase of Sunni votes from 2005-2009, giving it a total of 27,000 votes compared to just 15,000 Shiite votes. This gave the Christian loyalists a 12,000 vote advantage before the distribution of the Christian vote and made it impossible for Aoun's list to win in Zahle, unlike in 2005, when the numbers of Sunni voters were much much lower. With Zahle guaranteed for the loyalists, this left Aoun with just 40 seats to contest of which he needed to win 33 (83%). So Aoun had a mammoth task and it is obvious that the 1960 Qada Election Law greatly favored the loyalists. Of these 40 seats, Aoun and his allies managed to win the following:

Jbeil: 3 seats
Keserwen: 5 seats
Maten: 6 seats out of 8
Baabda: 6 seats
Zgharta: 3 seats
Jezzine: 3 seats
Total seats won by C&R in Christian-majority regions = 26 seats. Although the Shiite votes in Jbeil and Baabda were in Aoun's favour, so was the Christian vote.

So Aoun needed another 7 seats of the remaining 12. Bsharre (2 seats) is a Lebanese Forces stronghold and so Aoun needed 7 of the remaining 10 seats. In Koura (3 seats), Aoun managed to win the Christian vote, but like Zahle, the Sunni vote ensured Aoun's loss in this electorate. Now 7 needed from 7 seats. In Batroun (2 seats), Aoun truly lost the Christian vote and it was very close in Ashrafiyye with a 5-0 win for the loyalists.

So using this bad election law and against all odds (once again FPM is extremely disadvantaged by the election law), the political money, the lies, the buying of thousands of votes, blackmailing and threatening people, cheating, having the president and the Batrak against us and the scare tactics and propoganda of Hezbollah and Wileyet Al Fakih, the tayyar list managed to win the Christian vote in 8/11 Christian-majority regions and increased its block by 6 seats from 21 to 27 seats. This is amazing given that the Lebanese Forces won 6 seats in 2005 and just 5 seats in 2009.

Congratulations FPM. You defeated the global hegemony of money and subservient news media while sticking to your principles. The next four years will serve to educate those who need education how to identify their shepherd from their butcher. Meanwhile, they’ll keep on paying two phone, electric and water bills while the government is drowning in debt so the rich can get richer. The $1.000 briberies will be paid it back multiple folds. What’s really sad, the expatriates who enjoyed free airplane tickets to ***** up Lebanon’s elections will get back to their homes abroad with no accountability. The other sad thing is the illusion about Iran’s ghost will result in throwing Lebanon back into the Syrian lap through the obedient Loyalist camp that takes its orders from their supreme masters - That’s exactly what the Obama administration has in mind for Lebanon. Our hope is that GMA who was the only leader to oppose such plans in the past will have to do it all over again during the next four years and history keeps on repeating itself.

Thank you JAZ

[bruno]

You won in Jbeil and Baabda by Shiite voice. you won in Matn by Arman voice (who elected for you because they're Arman, not because they believe you represent GMA Christians). So basically it is 15 seats.
Aoun started as a Lebanese leader, not Christian leader, the problem started when he started to reclaim his throne on the Christians in Lebanon. The problem is that the people of other religions who voted for Aoun, didn't do that because they like him, but because they were implied by their leaders (Ha and tachnak).
So basically what happened in the last election, is that Aoun gain some seats while lost lot of christian (and Lebanese in general) support. I hope they could address the problem right, and find out what is the problem, maybe then we could all elect Aoun in the next election (i am sunni)

[Nimr]

just a small coreection in jbeil he didnt win by shiite votes...

[X]

Originally Posted by bruno

You won in Jbeil and Baabda by Shiite voice. you won in Matn by Arman voice (who elected for you because they're Arman, not because they believe you represent GMA Christians). So basically it is 15 seats.
Aoun started as a Lebanese leader, not Christian leader, the problem started when he started to reclaim his throne on the Christians in Lebanon. The problem is that the people of other religions who voted for Aoun, didn't do that because they like him, but because they were implied by their leaders (Ha and tachnak).
So basically what happened in the last election, is that Aoun gain some seats while lost lot of christian (and Lebanese in general) support. I hope they could address the problem right, and find out what is the problem, maybe then we could all elect Aoun in the next election (i am sunni)

The difference in Jbeil is between 9000 and 10000 votes, while the number of Shiite who participated in the elections was 8000.

In Baabda, I will post the numbers when i have it but the Christian votes were in our favor around 55-60%.

[MaKhassak]

it s true that FPM is the biggest christian party but it can't claim that it represents more than 50% of the christians anymore.

FPM won Keserwen and Jezzine with christian votes, it barely got 1 or 2% more of the christian votes than the other list in jbeil and for Baabda march 14th got more christian votes so if you want to consider that March 14th won Zahle b/c of the sunni vote at least admit that your list won Baabda b/c of the shiite vote

[e_khoury]

Originally Posted by MaKhassak

it s true that FPM is the biggest christian party but it can't claim that it represents more than 50% of the christians anymore.

FPM won Keserwen and Jezzine with christian votes, it barely got 1 or 2% more of the christian votes than the other list in jbeil and for Baabda march 14th got more christian votes so if you want to consider that March 14th won Zahle b/c of the sunni vote at least admit that your list won Baabda b/c of the shiite vote

Baabda:
19000 shiite
12000 druze
8000 sunni

Baabda al3a Aouniye,so l3ab geir matra7

[MaKhassak]

Originally Posted by e_khoury

Baabda:
19000 shiite
12000 druze
8000 sunni

Baabda al3a Aouniye,so l3ab geir matra7

there are almost 34000 shiites voters in Baabda, 8400 sunnis and 24000 druze.

[ziadmf]

Originally Posted by bruno

You won in Jbeil and Baabda by Shiite voice. you won in Matn by Arman voice (who elected for you because they're Arman, not because they believe you represent GMA Christians). So basically it is 15 seats.
Aoun started as a Lebanese leader, not Christian leader, the problem started when he started to reclaim his throne on the Christians in Lebanon. The problem is that the people of other religions who voted for Aoun, didn't do that because they like him, but because they were implied by their leaders (Ha and tachnak).
So basically what happened in the last election, is that Aoun gain some seats while lost lot of christian (and Lebanese in general) support. I hope they could address the problem right, and find out what is the problem, maybe then we could all elect Aoun in the next election (i am sunni)

CHiaa are not Lebanese??
Tashnak are not Lebanese???
Could you tell me why Tashnaq vote for Aoun????
If you don't i will tell you???
Aoun is a man
Aoun didn't let tashnak alone to face Hariri
As for Baabda and Aley please go check the numbers
While checking the numbers could you tell me why Aoun lost Zahle and Koura???/
Tx

[CitizenOfTheRepublic]

Originally Posted by MaKhassak

there are almost 34000 shiites voters in Baabda, 8400 sunnis and 24000 druze.

mmmmmmm
34000 vs 33000
Shoo 3am tebkha3 7alak?

[e_khoury]

Originally Posted by MaKhassak

there are almost 34000 shiites voters in Baabda, 8400 sunnis and 24000 druze.

LLLOOLLLL dudezz u just prooved my point eno the shiite voters are equals to the druze and sunni voters.