HA's weapons and the Christian vote, a 'nightmare' or a scarecrow?

[ceaoun]

On a more serious note; I think the thread is a valid and useful one.
This issue of HA and its weapon is the weakiest link in FPM and GMA's credibility issue in the Christian street..
I honestly don't think GMA played this card in the best way possible.
For most hardline FPMers it is not an issue. I can see it clearly on this forum.
It is clearly a hot topic for those other sympatisers out there.

Building the bridges between the communities is a good thing, and GMA is to be commended for it (MoU), unfortunatly it did not expand to other communities to give it more credibility.
While promoting peace and understanding between these Lebanese fractions(sects) there was a mistake in defending the weapons . GMA 's loud voice in this issue was somewhat counter productive. He did not have to be so loud about it. He could have kept it in the saying: Wi will discuss it with all other parties and come to a common peaceful solution. He could have limited his talks to : we are for one government , one army, and everybody is invited to discuss the solutions and the resistance.
In other words , while building the bridges he did not have to cross them all the way to defend so heavily those arms. No matter how you put it, even for those hardliners, the arms are an issue.
If we are talking about people, constituents, voters and elections, then you have no choice but to listen to their fears and understand their concerns. If you are good enough to mitigate that fear then you will get their votes. You will still get their votes if the opponents are not much better off.

Having said that, the best strategy is to keep those 2005 alliances alive on the screens. Those quotes from the ex-allies should be put once in a while for the people to hear them again. One thing is for you to quote them, another is when people hear them directly from the mouth of that leader. Explain to people that the alternative the other parties are proposing for those weapons is civil war; we do not want civil war; it will be endless and very bloody and destructive; explain to people that talking and discussing , even it takes years, is much better that war.

regards

[DCtoBeirut]

HA is by far the most organized and disciplined Lebanese party in Lebanon. Whether we would like to admit or not, every Lebanese political party in Lebanon has a militia of some sort. These militias were used during the civil war for territorial, political, foreign and domestic goals that aimed to serve different agendas.
When we look at the history of Shias in Lebanon (without going into details), we start to get a better understanding of the behavior pattern of most Lebanese Shias today.

Creation of the Lebanese State:
The creation of the Lebanese state came about mostly because of the overwhelming support of Shias in Lebanon to create an independent state. Realizing that they are a minority in an ocean of Sunni muslims, it was not such a difficult decision to make. Yet as the Maronite christians realized that the only way "their" state can prosper is by appeasing to the majority Sunni and putting those that had initially helped them on the back burner.

Second Class Citizens:
Lebanese Shia have always been treated as second class citizens. The south of Lebanon is underdeveloped with illiteracy rates that spike over the highest peaks of Lebanon. This gradually started changing with the rise of vocal clerics such as Sayed Musa AlSadr who became very popular among all Lebanese sects and earned great respect.

Action and Reaction:
It very evident to all that the creation of HA is a result of many years of injustice, prosecution and unfair treatment of the largest Lebanese sect. Today, HA has by far the biggest stock pile of weapons and has been rated by many experts as the most sophisticated guerrilla group in the world. It is normal and understandable that other sects, mainly Christians, Sunni Muslims and Druze should have deep concerns about the future aspirations of such an organization.
It is also normal that they will ask for peaceful disarming of HA.

Should HA disarm?
As Norman Finkelstein, a Jewish American political scientist and author said, ""There is no way that the United States and Israel are going to tolerate any resistance (to their hegemony) in the Arab world."
With an enemy such as Israel in the south and "American Slaves" in Lebanon and a dark history behind their back, it only normal to assume that HA can never justify disarming as long as these threats continue to hunt the Shia population in Lebanon.

The Shias in Lebanon have always been on the defensive and there is not a better way to defend yourself than been fully prepared and well "equipped". As for those who claim HA aims to create an Islamic state; how can they create such a state when over 50% of the Lebanese population are not Shia and a significant portion of the Shias themselves do not believe in such a solution?

[Souss]

Originally Posted by DCtoBeirut

HA is by far the most organized and disciplined Lebanese party in Lebanon. Whether we would like to admit or not, every Lebanese political party in Lebanon has a militia of some sort. These militias were used during the civil war for territorial, political, foreign and domestic goals that aimed to serve different agendas.
When we look at the history of Shias in Lebanon (without going into details), we start to get a better understanding of the behavior pattern of most Lebanese Shias today.

Creation of the Lebanese State:
The creation of the Lebanese state came about mostly because of the overwhelming support of Shias in Lebanon to create an independent state. Realizing that they are a minority in an ocean of Sunni muslims, it was not such a difficult decision to make. Yet as the Maronite christians realized that the only way "their" state can prosper is by appeasing to the majority Sunni and putting those that had initially helped them on the back burner.

Second Class Citizens:
Lebanese Shia have always been treated as second class citizens. The south of Lebanon is underdeveloped with illiteracy rates that spike over the highest peaks of Lebanon. This gradually started changing with the rise of vocal clerics such as Sayed Musa AlSadr who became very popular among all Lebanese sects and earned great respect.

Action and Reaction:
It very evident to all that the creation of HA is a result of many years of injustice, prosecution and unfair treatment of the largest Lebanese sect. Today, HA has by far the biggest stock pile of weapons and has been rated by many experts as the most sophisticated guerrilla group in the world. It is normal and understandable that other sects, mainly Christians, Sunni Muslims and Druze should have deep concerns about the future aspirations of such an organization.
It is also normal that they will ask for peaceful disarming of HA.

Should HA disarm?
As Norman Finkelstein, a Jewish American political scientist and author said, ""There is no way that the United States and Israel are going to tolerate any resistance (to their hegemony) in the Arab world."
With an enemy such as Israel in the south and "American Slaves" in Lebanon and a dark history behind their back, it only normal to assume that HA can never justify disarming as long as these threats continue to hunt the Shia population in Lebanon.

The Shias in Lebanon have always been on the defensive and there is not a better way to defend yourself than been fully prepared and well "equipped". As for those who claim HA aims to create an Islamic state; how can they create such a state when over 50% of the Lebanese population are not Shia and a significant portion of the Shias themselves do not believe in such a solution?

Hi DCtoBeirut and welcome to the forum,

I agree with everything you said. Regarding your last sentence however, HA is quite clear about its desire for an Islamic state; it is well documented. They do add a disclaimer along the lines of "it's not doable right now", which is true and means it is a medium to long-term objective for them. But it is certainly on the agenda.

Nonetheless, and I believe that's what you are saying, being concerned about this issue and raising it is legitimate, especially in light of certain of HA's attributes, some of which you mentioned:

- Highly organized and disciplined
- Very well-armed
- Secretive/opaque

Thanks for that valuable post, and I look forward to reading more of your contributions.