HA's weapons and the Christian vote, a 'nightmare' or a scarecrow?

[Dark Angel]

The weapons of the resistance will always remain a subject of severe controversy, but regardless of how one feels towards HA, there are some key facts that should never be ignored. I will list a few that I am sure have been mentioned throughout this gigantic thread kept alive thanks to Joseph Lubnan’s relentless efforts at taking stabs at the MoU. I will try to explain as best as I can, the position of Dark Angel who was born and grew up in Mount Lebanon, who was raised as a Maronite, and who is an FPM supporter, towards HA’s weapons.

Do the weapons offer any advantages at all?
the answer to this one is very clear, and doesn’t require a degree in nuclear physics to be seen. The weapons offer a double fold advantage, in times of war they constitute a deterrent that can stop the Israeli adventures over our soil, and in peace negotiations they can constitute a leverage point either towards the prevention of the nationalization of the Palestinians, or towards alleviating a portion of the huge debt accrued through years of devastating fiscal policies.

Do the weapons constitute any risk at all?
All weapons constitute risks, especially if they are outside the government’s control. However the level of risk is associated with the level of responsibility of those in command. HA’s leadership has proven once and again that it has a better feel of responsibilities than many folks who control the decision making process within the government, especially the ones who contributed for long decades to keep the internal civil war ignited.

Is it safe to strip the weapons away from the resistance while the Palestinians are armed?
One of the main problems I have with the Febers is their apparent obliviousness towards the Palestinian camps and their concentration on HA’s weapons. Doesn’t common sense require that the disarmament, if any, begins with the Palestinian fractions, inside and outside the camps? Shouldn’t the devastating events of Nahr-El-Bared be indication enough to where the real threat resides? The threats presented by these camps are many folds the ones that an armed HA presents.

So can one assume that ignoring the Palestinian, the extremists and the jihadists threats is in agreement with a foreign agenda that finds HA to be a nuisance and is working to eliminate internally even at the cost of an internal civil war? If that is the case, can one entrust the Febers on the subject of governance despite their obvious commitment to a foreign agenda?

How should the subject of HA’s weapons be approached?
There exists two ways to approach this subject, either peacefully or confrontationally.

The peaceful approach will require years of establishing mutual trust between the different Lebanese fractions and years of nurturing the concept of confessional free citizenship. Only when that’s achieved can progress be made towards a peaceful solution.

The confrontational approach is one that many regional and global powers were investing in, and was spoiled mainly through the MoU. It goes without saying that all the different scenarios for this approach will end in a bloody civil war, one that is more likely to make the last 30 years look like a bliss in comparison. This is the path many short-sighted and ill willed leaderships were trying to push us upon; plenty of bloodshed awaits on this path, and there will be no winner at the end.

Is a national resistance a possibility?
it is obvious that even HA are working on an exit strategy for the weapons issue. They have left the doors wide open in their 2009 parliamentary electoral program for a national defense strategy that will change HA’s monopoly over the resistance into a national one. That said, the process will not be easy, and cannot be accomplished without credibility and trust. That said, the presence of walid jumblat and samir geagea in the dialogue sessions dedicated to the nationalization of the resistance weapons is proof enough that these sessions are for show only, the HA folks are much smarter than to offer their necks to the likes of these warlords.

Do I feel threatened by these weapons as a Christian?
As someone who survived the Lebanese civil war and witnessed plenty of its atrocities, I should have plenty of fears from an armed and strong HA. However, and contrary to the expectations, experience and facts on the ground indicate otherwise. I have come to realize that the threat doesn’t necessarily flow through religious boundaries, but rather through ethical ones. In fact it is those who have no ethics and no respect for human life that constitute the most danger, and they are the ones responsible for the countless massacres that plagued Lebanon, most often these massacres were carried out between folks from the same religion and the same confession.

I believe that all evidence at hands seems to indicate that HA’s leadership in the person of SHN, shares plenty of the respect we have for life regardless of the messages it sends towards the israelis, and we share the same sets of basic human values, including freedom of worship (believe it or not), so from this perspective, I do not feel threatened at all by an armed HA, despite the fact that as an FPMer I am actively seeking to transform this resistance into a national one.

I personally have no fear visiting the south, Baalbek, dahyeh or the south, and for the matter of fact I visit most of these regions when I happen to be in Lebanon, and why shouldn't I? they are all part of Lebanon and i feel it in my interaction with the people there, and i felt it long before the MoU. However I’ll never go inside a camp even if my life depended on it.

That said, I want to point out that throughout the Lebanese war, there was no Christian/Shiites massacres carried out, despite having a big Christian population in Shiite areas, and a big Shiite population in Christian areas. This does not mean that all other confessions are monsters, and it doesn’t mean that all Shiites are angels, it simply offers proof that we have managed to keep peaceful relations during times when the tensions were very high.

A word to the wise
HA’s weapons were never presented as a problem by the ruling majority prior to the MoU and the alliance with FPM. The LF candidates assisted to ‘mahrajen el mukawame’ prior to the 2005 parliamentary elections and amine gemayel compared SHN to his father pierre gemayel.

The subject of these weapons is simply being used as a scare tactic to erode FPM’s base on the eve of the 2009 elections. I hope the images of the LF candidates and that of amine gemayel praising SHN and HA’s weapons in 2005 will alert the voters to the fact that the Febers are far from being sincere and are only playing this card only to target the Christian street and erode FPM’s support, and that should be motive enough to the voters to hold on tighter to FPM and support its vision towards a peaceful solution.

(note: Febers = Feb14ers)

[Greg Davis]

Dark Angel

It wasn't long ago when Hassan Nisrallah got up there on his podium and declared that Hizbullah weapons would never be used internally. Then came May 7. Then came the excuses and the justification.

It wasn't long ago when Hassan Nisrallah got up there on his podium and declared that the Hizbullah resistance was there as a deterrant, and a resistance, present to protect Lebanon, in the event Israel were to attack Lebanon. Then a Hizbullah cell gets caught in egypt, provoking Israel etc. Then came the excuses and the justification.

If the parameters of the resistance are clearly defined, the fear factor wouldn't be as bad, but the parameter are no where near defined.
Irrespective, the christian street is sceptical of militias 'all forms' including Christian ones, so , it's a certainly hard for the Christian street to accept a sectarian militia, whose idiology contadicts everything the stand for.

I'm sure if the Lebanese political system were to change to a semi federal system, The Hizbullah arms issue would dissapear.

[chafic]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

The weapons of the resistance will always remain a subject of severe controversy, but regardless of how one feels towards HA, there are some key facts that should never be ignored. I will list a few that I am sure have been mentioned throughout this gigantic thread kept alive thanks to Joseph Lubnan’s relentless efforts at taking stabs at the MoU. I will try to explain as best as I can, the position of Dark Angel who was born and grew up in Mount Lebanon, who was raised as a Maronite, and who is an FPM supporter, towards HA’s weapons.

On a first note, these weapons, being a source of political, social and military inequality and thus injustice, and being not agreed upon by a group of Lebanese, simply, SHOULDN'T BE. Let them be the next best thing after Allah, Zeus and Krishna, they shouldn't be.

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

Do the weapons offer any advantages at all?
the answer to this one is very clear, and doesn’t require a degree in nuclear physics to be seen. The weapons offer a double fold advantage, in times of war they constitute a deterrent that can stop the Israeli adventures over our soil, and in peace negotiations they can constitute a leverage point either towards the prevention of the nationalization of the Palestinians, or towards alleviating a portion of the huge debt accrued through years of devastating fiscal policies.

It just needs a PhD in self delusion to claim what you just did above.

- War is taking place simply because Hezbollah wants it to take place. Like all religious/political extremist organizations in the world, Hezbollah rejects peace, and seeks continuous war. It did define goals like the destruction of Israel, and Israel will not be reluctant to respond to any security threats. Hezbollah also defined goals such as defeat America, face western culture, etc... Without war, Hezbollah has no raison d'etre, but also, religious war is an integral part of its ideology.
It is thus utterly ridiculous to claim that in times of war, Hezbollah protects Lebanon. Ridiculous because we don't need war in the first place. It's just that one group of fanatical clerics thinks it's a holy duty to make war with others while peace is certainly the choice of any sane person (unfortunately, the rest are too numb or cowards to realize it); and utterly ridiculous because Hezbollah can't even protect an inch of Lebanon, and didn't. Hezbollah can only protect its existence, surviving as a military organization is the best it can do. Protecting a country is protecting its people, territory, economy, liberty...and that is far beyond its reach.

- Regarding the debt and Palestinian refugees issues, weapons are not a way to put the screws on anybody but the Lebanese groups which are not yet bending to Hezbollah's project, and they actually can't. In fact, there's no logical scenario where they can: even in any negotiations, Israelis are interested in guaranteeing security on their northern borders, they care less if Hezbollah's weapons stay or go; I repeat, they're a problem to Lebanon way more than they are to Israel. The ironic thing, is that Hezbollah never presented its weapons as a counterweight for naturalization, or debt (that one is laughable ), and, for almost 10 years after the withdrawal of Israelis, they have never put their weapons on any negotiations table, most obviously because Hezbollah is opposed to any peace settlement.

[mike-ramma]

Originally Posted by Greg Davis

Dark Angel

It wasn't long ago when Hassan Nisrallah got up there on his podium and declared that Hizbullah weapons would never be used internally. Then came May 7. Then came the excuses and the justification.

It wasn't long ago when Hassan Nisrallah got up there on his podium and declared that the Hizbullah resistance was there as a deterrant, and a resistance, present to protect Lebanon, in the event Israel were to attack Lebanon. Then a Hizbullah cell gets caught in egypt, provoking Israel etc. Then came the excuses and the justification.

If the parameters of the resistance are clearly defined, the fear factor wouldn't be as bad, but the parameter are no where near defined.
Irrespective, the christian street is sceptical of militias 'all forms' including Christian ones, so , it's a certainly hard for the Christian street to accept a sectarian militia, whose idiology contadicts everything the stand for.

I'm sure if the Lebanese political system were to change to a semi federal system, The Hizbullah arms issue would dissapear.

For a while,I thought that you became the spokesman of the christian community,not even in Lebanon,but perhaps in the whole region of the middle east.First of all,the chronicles on the 7th of May,whether you concur it or not,were the path for the salvation of the majority of our people from the corruption,embezzlement,ransacking,and not to mention the lack of independence that we encountered during the domination of some super powers(i.e U.SA and Saudi Arabia).The events of 7th may created a deterring sanction for all the means of the Usurpation of power led by a team which depend on the foreign support rather than that of its own people.With respect to the fabricated charges waged on SHN by the egyptian intelligence,I could simply say in this domain that what the 10 members of HA did in the "property of Hesni Moubarak" was something that deserves grace and gratefulness as they were helping our brother in ghaza,who are repudiated by some shallow tyrannies and dictatorships.I did not understand your point about provoking Isreal,as most of the mindful people ,who have a basic knowledge about the conflict in middle east,know that the hebrew country could build a re-action out of an action which it might create by itself.A good example for this would be in ,1982, when the israeli ambassador performed his role perfectly in a play formed,produced,and directed entirely by the Mosad.The bottom line is that Hizbollah is a deep-rooted resistance party in lebanon which has been defending our backs for many years ,while many people are competing to act as backstabber in oder to get some extra voted in the coming elections.Last but not least,the christian street"s opinion is expressed by its representives in the parliament who posses at least 70% of the christian votes.The second major bloc in the the parliament which the includes the highest number of christian deputies is the only one which has the right to give opinions or to set accords with any lebanese party.Buddy,dont waste your time and energy on trying to elaborate the fears of the christian street as other people are responsible for that.One last advice,if you reckon on the alteration of the political system in order to suit your interset and satisfy your desire of federalisim,I urge you to re-check the current tenor in your surrounding which curbs all attempts for your far-fetched dream of creating cantons which raise up the odds of a civil strife ,that some politicians wish to see,recently.

[Dark Angel]

Originally Posted by chafic

On a first note, these weapons, being a source of political, social and military inequality and thus injustice, and being not agreed upon by a group of Lebanese, simply, SHOULDN'T BE. Let them be the next best thing after Allah, Zeus and Krishna, they shouldn't be.

who said otherwise? they are a source of a big inequality, however the question is what are you gonna do about it? and how are you gonna solve this problem in the least damaging way? Televised heroic speeches and folk shows wont solve the problem. if you want a real solution and you actively looked for one, you will find yourself converging back with FPM's vision towards this issue.

It just needs a PhD in self delusion to claim what you just did above.
- War is taking place simply because Hezbollah wants it to take place.

I am not sure about what research one should do to qualify for such a PhD, but you just did, ironically enough one sentence after your cheesy stab :)
should i remind you that israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982 and that HA wasn't even an organization back then? should i remind you that HA was the only factor that pressured the israelis into withdrawing their armed forces?

Like all religious/political extremist organizations in the world, Hezbollah rejects peace, and seeks continuous war. It did define goals like the destruction of Israel, and Israel will not be reluctant to respond to any security threats. Hezbollah also defined goals such as defeat America, face western culture, etc... Without war, Hezbollah has no raison d'etre, but also, religious war is an integral part of its ideology.

we are not looking to diagnose the problem, we are looking for a solution, are you saying that the only way out is complete annyhilation of anyone who believes in this doctrine?

It is thus utterly ridiculous to claim that in times of war, Hezbollah protects Lebanon. Ridiculous because we don't need war in the first place. It's just that one group of fanatical clerics thinks it's a holy duty to make war with others while peace is certainly the choice of any sane person (unfortunately, the rest are too numb or cowards to realize it); and utterly ridiculous because Hezbollah can't even protect an inch of Lebanon, and didn't. Hezbollah can only protect its existence, surviving as a military organization is the best it can do. Protecting a country is protecting its people, territory, economy, liberty...and that is far beyond its reach.

what's utterly ridiculous is to claim that israel doesn't think twice about HA's missiles when they contemplate an incursion or a venture over the Lebanese soil. it goes without saying that israel holds the military superiority.
It is rather very simplistic and naive to assume that i was saying otherwise. the point i am making is that HA have inflicted severe losses on the israeli army on several occasions, demoralized the israeli army, and forced a new equation in the region, a new form of balance.

- Regarding the debt and Palestinian refugees issues, weapons are not a way to put the screws on anybody but the Lebanese groups which are not yet bending to Hezbollah's project, and they actually can't. In fact, there's no logical scenario where they can: even in any negotiations, Israelis are interested in guaranteeing security on their northern borders, they care less if Hezbollah's weapons stay or go; I repeat, they're a problem to Lebanon way more than they are to Israel. The ironic thing, is that Hezbollah never presented its weapons as a counterweight for naturalization, or debt (that one is laughable ), and, for almost 10 years after the withdrawal of Israelis, they have never put their weapons on any negotiations table, most obviously because Hezbollah is opposed to any peace settlement.

ridiculous and laughable? :)
what's ridiculous and laughable is your lack of recognition of leverage points, those who are trying to get the best price for something they own dont rush to throw it on negotiation tables. the weapons can be used as a counter balance against a portion of the debt, in case a global solution was in the making, and they can be used as a guarantee against the naturalization of the palestos, just liek the phalanges weapons prevented kissinger's scheme back in 1975.

that's odd but i thought you were capable of better than that. my mistake :)

[Greg Davis]

Originally Posted by mike-ramma

For a while,I thought that you became the spokesman of the christian community,not even in Lebanon,but perhaps in the whole region of the middle east.First of all,the chronicles on the 7th of May,whether you concur it or not,were the path for the salvation of the majority of our people from the corruption,embezzlement,ransacking,and not to mention the lack of independence that we encountered during the domination of some super powers(i.e U.SA and Saudi Arabia).The events of 7th may created a deterring sanction for all the means of the Usurpation of power led by a team which depend on the foreign support rather than that of its own people.With respect to the fabricated charges waged on SHN by the egyptian intelligence,I could simply say in this domain that what the 10 members of HA did in the "property of Hesni Moubarak" was something that deserves grace and gratefulness as they were helping our brother in ghaza,who are repudiated by some shallow tyrannies and dictatorships.I did not understand your point about provoking Isreal,as most of the mindful people ,who have a basic knowledge about the conflict in middle east,know that the hebrew country could build a re-action out of an action which it might create by itself.A good example for this would be in ,1982, when the israeli ambassador performed his role perfectly in a play formed,produced,and directed entirely by the Mosad.The bottom line is that Hizbollah is a deep-rooted resistance party in lebanon which has been defending our backs for many years ,while many people are competing to act as backstabber in oder to get some extra voted in the coming elections.Last but not least,the christian street"s opinion is expressed by its representives in the parliament who posses at least 70% of the christian votes.The second major bloc in the the parliament which the includes the highest number of christian deputies is the only one which has the right to give opinions or to set accords with any lebanese party.Buddy,dont waste your time and energy on trying to elaborate the fears of the christian street as other people are responsible for that.One last advice,if you reckon on the alteration of the political system in order to suit your interset and satisfy your desire of federalisim,I urge you to re-check the current tenor in your surrounding which curbs all attempts for your far-fetched dream of creating cantons which raise up the odds of a civil strife ,that some politicians wish to see,recently.

Habibi, there isn't a single Christian Lebanese Citizen who isn't concerned with Hizbullah, its weapons, and Hizbullahs extra curricular activities. The sentiment is the same whether your aouni, Kataebi, ouwetji, marada, snoopi, or just a neutral.
The 70 percent of voters you are referring to, occured at a time when the Slogan was 'no to weapons outside rhe realm of the government, 'no to the Syrian regime and all its collaborators' including Amal, SSNP, Marada, etc.
Your spin/justification is almost as good as that of Hassan Nisrallah, but the reality is still there.

[Dark Angel]

Originally Posted by Greg Davis

Habibi, there isn't a single Christian Lebanese Citizen who isn't concerned with Hizbullah, its weapons, and Hizbullahs extra curricular activities. The sentiment is the same whether your aouni, Kataebi, ouwetji, marada, snoopi, or just a neutral.
The 70 percent of voters you are referring to, occured at a time when the Slogan was 'no to weapons outside rhe realm of the government, 'no to the Syrian regime and all its collaborators' including Amal, SSNP, Marada, etc.
Your spin/justification is almost as good as that of Hassan Nisrallah, but the reality is still there.

that's not the point. we are also all concerned about falling from roof tops. the question is:

what are you doing about it?

[Secular Lebanon]

I agree with most of what Dark Angel said.

On the utility of HA weapons : we just have to compare 1982 and 2006. In 1982, there were no HA weapons, Israel reached Beirut in 6 days, killed 30.000 Lebanese, forced two presidents upon Lebanon, which led to the humiliating May 17 peace treaty proposal, abandoning large parts of Lebanon's sovereignty, in exchange for Israel's partial withdrawal. In 2006, Israel was stuck in the South for 33 days and was unable to change the Lebanese equation.

HA weapons are therefore an extraordinary card in our hand that we should not discard without getting serious guarantees. Check this important article by one of Lebanon's best experts

Georges Corm : Désarmer le Hezbollah "aurait été une erreur majeure" - George Corm

He says about the MOU :

"Toutefois, cette approche intelligente et réaliste a été rejetée par la coalition qui soutient les héritiers de Hariri et qui est appuyée par l'Arabie saoudite, les Etats-Unis et la France. Il est fort dommage que ce document n'ait pas servi de plateforme de discussion, car penser qu'une armée régulière, aussi petite et sous équipée que l'armée libanaise, puisse être un instrument de dissuasion de la puissante armée israélienne est une illusion plus que dangereuse. Même les armées régulières de grands pays arabes bien équipées par l'URSS n'ont jamais pu tenir tête à l'armée israélienne.

MG : Donc seul le Hezbollah peut assurer la sécurité du pays ?

George Corm : Seule une résistance mobile, issue et fondue dans la population peut être dissuasive. En réalité, et compte tenu aussi de notre passé houleux, et souvent douloureux avec la Syrie, l'organisation de gardes-frontières mobilisant les habitants des régions frontalières avec Israël comme avec la Syrie, est la solution d'avenir. Mais cela suppose que le gouvernement libanais ne soit pas sous la haute influence des américains et de leurs alliés dans les gouvernements arabes, comme c'est le cas actuellement, mais qu'il soit vraiment affranchi de toutes tutelles."

On the risks of HA weapons : Risks exists but are minimal right now. What I am worried about is the post-Hassan Nasrallah period. Let's imagine the following scenario, which is not far-fetched : HA gets revenge for Imad Mughnieh by killing an Israeli ambassador in a European Country for example. Israel gets mad and launches a raid which kills Hassan Nasrallah. If this happens, there will be huge risks. Exasperation of HA anger + new radical leader.

If they were smart, Lebanese leaders should take advantage of the presence of a smart and relatively moderate HA leader to discuss things calmly with him, now.

[Greg Davis]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

that's not the point. we are also all concerned about falling from roof tops. the question is:

what are you doing about it?

If the Civil war has taught us anything, Confrontation never solves anything and we always end up at square one.

The 10452 km2 is an area demarked by the colonials of the day and not Lebanese.

What Lebanon needs is a referendum. And the Lebanese people need to determine what type of country they want. If the majority agree to a system, so be it, but if the difference is too farse, What is the harm in disection?
Nations are not build on stalemates.
We are better off building two or three smaller nations, that rise an prosper simultaneously, and we could co-exist as neighbours, or we could just accept status quo, and spend the next few decades bickering.

[aoun89]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

that's not the point. we are also all concerned about falling from roof tops. the question is:

what are you doing about it?

Good question.

Allying himself with those who invaded ashrafiyeh and destroyed its buildings!!Or maybe with those radical wahabis in order to win the election ?!!

Next question :

What will they do with the majority seats if they win the upcoming election? How did the majority form 05-08 protect the Christian right in Lebanon?
cha3eb ghaflen zzzzz