Fuel Price in Lebanon

[Sa3id Sale7]

نرجو من الأخوة المهتمين بالشأن العام أن يحصوا لنا كم يستهلك لبنان من المحروقات ، وكم تدخّر وزارة المالية في خزينتها خلال عام كامل من ضريبة المحروقات ، أما آن للبنان أن يدفع جزءاً مهما من دينه العام من هذه الضريبة التي أثقلت من كاهل المواطن ؟

[J. Abizeid]

The big picture is economics more than politics.
Based on actual facts and economic fundamentals, oil prices will continue to go up hence gas prices can be increased accordingly and much steeper than they should be since they already have their pretexts.
Only two things can be done by the Lebanese government to help the consumer; subsidize gas prices and/or peg the LL to the euro.

If you want to get into more derails, here is the bigger picture: The dollar is on a long term free fall like a glider without an engine which means oil priced in dollars will continually go up.
It is reasonable to expect oil over $100 and the euro past $1.55 by the end of the year.
Some believe Obama’s end of term will look like Carter’s - High inflation and interest rates- Oil at $200 and the euro at $2.00; at that time the US dollar will lose its status as the only world reserve currency, the petrodollar system will collapse and oil will be priced in a basket of currencies: dollar, euro, yen, Canadian dollar even Saudi riyals..
As we all know, Europe and Asia got in and out of recession honestly while the US denied its recession for one year and now it’s denying its depression by borrowing and printing US dollars as if there is no tomorrow. The rise in US stock market is a sign of inflation not economic health because it’s counteracted with a weaker dollar and continuous increase in unemployment.
One important observation is that Germany is Europe’s main production and manufacturing engine and China is America’s main engine but not a part of it…
Also an important observation is that the EU GDP exceeds the US’s and, Germany and Frances’s exports exceed China’s.
Now that Europe and Asia are on the move, oil demand will be increasing and those who understand what Oil Peak means, know that the US had reached its peak back in the Seventies and the Middle East reached its last year.
From now on, it will become more and more expensive to extract oil (EROEI Energy Return on Energy Invested) while demand from growing industrialized nations will be increasing with or without the US recovery causing the US dollar to go down and oil priced in US Dollar to go up.

Based on such reality, we need to plan our future based on high energy prices. In other words, you can get rich if you came up with energy efficient machineries because consumers will be looking for them. I bet that’s what Exxon Mobil and Hariri investments are contemplating now while we are busy complaining about them….

[joe tayyar]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

The big picture is economics more than politics.
Based on actual facts and economic fundamentals, oil prices will continue to go up hence gas prices can be increased accordingly and much steeper than they should be since they already have their pretexts.
Only two things can be done by the Lebanese government to help the consumer; subsidize gas prices and/or peg the LL to the euro.

If you want to get into more derails, here is the bigger picture: The dollar is on a long term free fall like a glider without an engine which means oil priced in dollars will continually go up.
It is reasonable to expect oil over $100 and the euro past $1.55 by the end of the year.
Some believe Obama’s end of term will look like Carter’s - High inflation and interest rates- Oil at $200 and the euro at $2.00; at that time the US dollar will lose its status as the only world reserve currency, the petrodollar system will collapse and oil will be priced in a basket of currencies: dollar, euro, yen, Canadian dollar even Saudi riyals..
As we all know, Europe and Asia got in and out of recession honestly while the US denied its recession for one year and now it’s denying its depression by borrowing and printing US dollars as if there is no tomorrow. The rise in US stock market is a sign of inflation not economic health because it’s counteracted with a weaker dollar and continuous increase in unemployment.
One important observation is that Germany is Europe’s main production and manufacturing engine and China is America’s main engine but not a part of it…
Also an important observation is that the EU GDP exceeds the US’s and, Germany and Frances’s exports exceed China’s.
Now that Europe and Asia are on the move, oil demand will be increasing and those who understand what Oil Peak means, know that the US had reached its peak back in the Seventies and the Middle East reached its last year.
From now on, it will become more and more expensive to extract oil (EROEI Energy Return on Energy Invested) while demand from growing industrialized nations will be increasing with or without the US recovery causing the US dollar to go down and oil priced in US Dollar to go up.

Based on such reality, we need to plan our future based on high energy prices. In other words, you can get rich if you came up with energy efficient machineries because consumers will be looking for them. I bet that’s what Exxon Mobil and Hariri investments are contemplating now while we are busy complaining about them….

In other words J. this could lead to a WW3.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by joe tayyar

In other words J. this could lead to a WW3.

I doubt Obama will cause WW3 to stop the decline of the American Empire. That could happen only if the next administration becomes hijacked by the neo cons all over again just like they did with Bush.
Unfortunately, that could happen by falsely blaming Obama on the runaway inflation the same way they blamed Carter because the Vulgar Many can’t comprehend that Obama inherited an economic disaster from the Bush recklessness and the failed Iraq war just like Jimmy Carter inherited the neo cons’ failed Vietnam War.

[joe tayyar]

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

I doubt Obama will cause WW3 to stop the decline of the American Empire. That could happen only if the next administration becomes hijacked by the neo cons all over again just like they did with Bush.
Unfortunately, that could happen by falsely blaming Obama on the runaway inflation the same way they blamed Carter because the Vulgar Many can’t comprehend that Obama inherited an economic disaster from the Bush recklessness and the failed Iraq war just like Jimmy Carter inherited the neo cons’ failed Vietnam War.

I also doubt that but what i meant here before every WW there was an economic crisis.

in WW2 the german D Mark was sold on the 3arabiyet, in the future we will see $$$$$$ sold the same way

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by joe tayyar

I also doubt that but what i meant here before every WW there was an economic crisis.

in WW2 the german D Mark was sold on the 3arabiyet, in the future we will see $$$$$$ sold the same way

That’s a fact.
Unfortunately some get offended when you expose the US dollar as a scam.
After WW2, the dollar became strong because the US emerged as the number one industrialized nation. The dollar used to be fully backed by gold until the seventies when it became backed by oil (black gold) through the petrodollar system acting as if oil was a US production sold only in US monopoly money. For the last forty years, practically, Americans needed not to work and produce. All they needed to do print money and create wealth out of thin air while China, Japan, Europe and the rest of the oil consuming and manufacturing world produced their best crop (computers, Toyota’s, BMWs…) and gave it to the US market in exchange for those counterfeit petrodollars.
The next decade will prove the new world order that Bush Senior envisioned blew up in his face. The next emerging empire won’t be China though, but the EU (The USE) through its solid euro (The Deutche Mark in disguise).
The only thing I hate to see is another Hitler showing up…

[roch10452]

Originally Posted by joe tayyar

I also doubt that but what i meant here before every WW there was an economic crisis.

in WW2 the german D Mark was sold on the 3arabiyet, in the future we will see $$$$$$ sold the same way

Originally Posted by J. Abizeid

That’s a fact.
Unfortunately some get offended when you expose the US dollar as a scam.
After WW2, the dollar became strong because the US emerged as the number one industrialized nation. The dollar used to be fully backed by gold until the seventies when it became backed by oil (black gold) through the petrodollar system acting as if oil was a US production sold only in US monopoly money. For the last forty years, practically, Americans needed not to work and produce. All they needed to do print money and create wealth out of thin air while China, Japan, Europe and the rest of the oil consuming and manufacturing world produced their best crop (computers, Toyota’s, BMWs…) and gave it to the US market in exchange for those counterfeit petrodollars.
The next decade will prove the new world order that Bush Senior envisioned blew up in his face. The next emerging empire won’t be China though, but the EU (The USE) through its solid euro (The Deutche Mark in disguise).
The only thing I hate to see is another Hitler showing up…

ouhhhh very messy historical chronology
and lots of conclusions dropping from the sky!!!

Joe Tayyar:
I noticed you still remember the picture from our history books of the old german guy carying the money on a trolley, but that was in 1929, the war started one decade after. and even if it was one of the reasons hitler got to power, its not why europe decided to blow itself up.

Abizeid:
I agree China is not that powerful by itself, China will always need the USA and Europe's market. But i doubt EU would be an empire one day... the mess in europe today is huge, nothing is working out as planned. and the rise of the EURO is not a good sign of health.

[J. Abizeid]

Today the euro went above $1.44 which is close to its record high this year and settled around $1.4365. If we compare the trend of the euro vs. the gas prices this year, they seem to be very comparable. I hate bringing up the bad news; gas prices will not go down anytime soon unless they become subsidized.
What’s happening today with oil prices going up and the US dollar melting away was supposed to be happening during the last year but the US economic collapse that sucked in the rest of the word that invested and lost in the US market delayed the process by causing a temporary decrease in global energy demand. It is important that the dollar doesn’t collapse overnight for world economic stabilities but the best we can hope for is a continuous trickle down until it hits bottom around the end of the Obama term.
On the other hand, a weaker dollar will drive real estate prices up in Lebanon because dollar and LL depositors will be better off getting rid of their melting currency by buying real estate. That in turn will push the Central bank to increase interest rates and inflation is on its way from all directions.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by roch10452

the rise of the EURO is not a good sign of health.

I’ll try to remember that one.
That might me the reason behind the British and Soviet empire demise; their currency became too strong, so they forgot to print more money (a lost opportunity to create wealth out of thin air) to pay their debt and feed their troops like the US treasury does…
I guess that’s what makes Mexico and Zimbabwe superior; their cheap currency.
May be you should let the LL collapse as well to prove Lebanon’s economy's health.
Brother, it's about time to learn what's good and what's bad for you and who your real friends are...

[J. Abizeid]

Today the US dollar reached another record low for this year; $1.4565 for the euro while gold exceeded $1.000 marks.
This article hints to the dollar’s continuous devaluation: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Barrick-Gold-to-eliminate-apf-3397141647.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&cc ode=
I wonder what has been going on with the prices of gasoline in Lebanon.
Can someone living in Lebanon keep us updated please?
Thanks.