FPM lost only 5% popularity in the christian street

[Zouxi]

Originally Posted by Libnene Qu7

Let's not over-analyze the results. Zouxi, you look like an ostrich with its head in a hole in the ground!

respectully, that's not true! we didn't get the parliamentary majority but we got more mps..

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by Zouxi

venom, vhil out a bit, you are still under traumtic choc, despite everything we still have 55% of christian support in lebanon and 55% of general support as opposition in lebanon...

kif 55% ya zouxi? Ma 3abena we lost 5% only (check your title)? In 2005, it was 70%, so 70-5=65%

[Venom]

Originally Posted by Zouxi

1-right, but we didn't bring expats for many reasons, ustmosly money.

not convincing...We got a lot of expats but not enough....we had the money (just check how much was spent on the campaign in Lebanon)

2-we don't represent the christians???!!! are you for real venom?? who respresents them then?? samir geagea? amine geemayel or dory chamoun??

I don't want FPM to represent the Christians anymore , to hell with Christians , half of them jenson 3atel ;) . let's drop this argument The C&R Bloc represent the Lebanese people.

venom, vhil out a bit, you are still under traumtic choc, despite everything we still have 55% of christian support in lebanon and 55% of general support as opposition in lebanon...

Again, in 2005 we had 70%, in 2009 we have 55%, in 2013?

We have to drop this mentality over the next 4 years...We are not LF or Kataeb....it's time to remember that!

I just wonder if only 3k voters switched sides in zahleh and the opposition got all the seats of zahleh, would you have the same approach??

No, I would be very happy and in joyce! But this is not the reality....

Get a more global view to things...

In 2005 we said we are 70% , what did we get? nothing and who cared? no one.....Check the other 50% of the jenes el 3atel they gave everything to Hariri on their account first and then FPM.....

[March14er]

Wrong calculations in all sorts.

For somebody to say that I didn't lose:
He should take in 2009 = what he took in 2005 + 10% at least (those who were 17.18.19.20 years old in 2005 and didn't elect).

So, just an example:
If Bassil got 14,950 in 2005, then, he should get (14,950+1,450 = 16,446) in order to say that he kept his percentage of popularity.
However:
In 2009, he got 14,267, ya3ni -2179

so the decline is = (-13.24%) and not 4.3%!

[Ataraxia]

Poll Issue:
-The bringing of expats does not lead to FPM's popularity to decrease. It leads it to be masked.
-Vote-buying also is not very reliable since for one to vote for someone because of money then he must be very remote from the principles of the party and he might very well be an independent or ignorant of politics.

[Stackinsto]

Zouxi you forgot Keserwan ... - ?? % ???

[Zouxi]

Originally Posted by vegojimbo

kif 55% ya zouxi? Ma 3abena we lost 5% only (check your title)? In 2005, it was 70%, so 70-5=65%

5% decrease if we exclude the expats. votes, 15% if we include them...

[michorange]

Originally Posted by March14er

Wrong calculations in all sorts.

For somebody to say that I didn't lose:
He should take in 2009 = what he took in 2005 + 10% at least (those who were 17.18.19.20 years old in 2005 and didn't elect).

So, just an example:
If Bassil got 14,950 in 2005, then, he should get (14,950+1,450 = 16,446) in order to say that he kept his percentage of popularity.
However:
In 2009, he got 14,267, ya3ni -2179

so the decline is = (-13.24%) and not 4.3%!

and what about those who died?!?

[Venom]

1. Propaganda and lies.

Not that much..

2. Buying votes

a major factor, people need money to survive... they don't care for change and especially those who are in need of it...

3. The bringing of expats

another major factor

4. The Patriarch's stance

personally i don't know how this is measured.

5. The MoU with Hezbollah

very minimal.

6. Relations with Syria

GMA should not have gone to Syria.....but who cares....

7. Other

the Lebanese like the ones who feed them :)

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by March14er

Wrong calculations in all sorts.

For somebody to say that I didn't lose:
He should take in 2009 = what he took in 2005 + 10% at least (those who were 17.18.19.20 years old in 2005 and didn't elect).

So, just an example:
If Bassil got 14,950 in 2005, then, he should get (14,950+1,450 = 16,446) in order to say that he kept his percentage of popularity.
However:
In 2009, he got 14,267, ya3ni -2179

so the decline is = (-13.24%) and not 4.3%!

But u then have to subtract as well those who died between 2005 and 2009, no? Not forgetting those who left between the 4 years (mainly during the July War) and haven't returned, etc...

U would be opening the gates for lots of additions and subtractions, so zouxi's method is more accurate.