FPM lost only 5% popularity in the christian street

[Zouxi]

Something very interesting piped up into my mind when GMA said that FPM lost only 5% of the christian street, but the difference was made by the expats that 85% voted for 14 march and 15% voted for the opposition.

As the title of the thread indicates, FPM lost only 5% of christian support comparing to 2008 and herebelow the proof, i will talk about each district:

-Batroun: Jibran bassil got 14950 votes in 2005, this year he got 14300 votes...difference-650 votes = -4.3%...however he lost because the other camp managed to increase his voter turnout because of the expats.

-Jbeil: in 2005 the average of the FPM list in 2005 was 22k votes (the list took only 2k chi3i votes last time) which makes this list around 20k in christian support..This year FPM list got around 29k votes -7k chi3i votes=22k voters...= + 3% ( facing the president, ketleh, LF, kataeb, fares souaid and the patriarch).

-Metn: in 2005 the average of FPM list was 54k voters, this year the average is 48k voters..taking into consideration that Murr went out and SSNP got in, the difference is -5%, but the other camp managed to get more votes from abroad , and this explains that 10 000 votes that X is talking about that appeared from nowhere.

-Baabda: in 2005 the FPM list got around 30k christian voters, this year the outcome is the same, however the other camp managed to bring more expats from abroad.

-Aley: in 2005 FPM list got 4k less votes than 2005, difference -9%

-In chouf : the FPM list got 22k in 2005, completely the very same number as 2009. difference zero%

-Akkar: FPM list got the same number of votes than 2005 (36k) difference 0%.

-Zgharta: the average of marada list in 2005 was 17.5 k votes, this year the average is the same , however the other camp brought at least 4k voters from arboad.

-Achrafieh: new battle, no previous records.

-Zahleh: here the difference of votes is -10%.

Bottom line, FPM's popularity among residential lebanese only decreased by 5%, however what made the number close was the huge number of expats that came to vote for the other camp.

Lesson learned: don't panic, we won, our behavior was great, GMA's behavior was great, just ignore the lessons learned thread!

[Ramzis]

Your analysis is true. But we should always work to make things better...I have a huge faith in FPM's members and in GMA himself! We need to work harder since nobody is perfect and the one who doesn't seek to improve will never be able to survive...

God bless all of us...God bless GMA!!!!

[Ataraxia]

I don't think your numbers are very accurate.Baabda for example, we did not get 30K, it's around 4K less or more. In general I was doing an estimate yesterday. I couldn't come up with a definite number because the actual results have not been published. So I would be basing the calculations on random numbers in newspapers.
To me it seemed like GMA lost around 10% of the support at most. The reason he got the majority of the christian voters by only few percent, however, is because of the huge expats. In Zahle, in one christian city alone, the expats was around 1,000. ( around 1/4 of the total voters percentage.)
The only way we can have exact numbers is on Tuesday. However, if anyone has the statistics of 2005, I hope he can post/pm the site.

[MPFL]

Honestly I don't a sh*t anymore for those calculation and numbers

All what I know is that we didn't win Parliament majority
I know we have 27 MPs - from different sects but mostly one sect

Hopefully One day Change & Reform bloc will be 65 MPs from different sects

this is what I'll be working for

[Venom]

Wrong analysis!!

1- The expats are Lebanese and that's not an excuse
2-Why we didn't get a lot of expats? shoo na2esna? money? BS
3-Zouxi u have to base ur % on the total voters and u will notice that although we won more MPs than 2005 (2 bel tazkeeyeh and 1 granted by Jumblat) but the support declined a lot....
4-We don't represent the Christians (we have 2 Druze MPs in our bloc and 1 Shiaa), let's remember that!

[vegojimbo]

Although I don't care for the christian popularity saga, but I must say that most of the calculations done to assess the christian percentage are not valid bc this has been skewed by the expats who in their majority were christians and voted for the loyalists.
Zouxi's approach, although not very scientific, is most probably the most accurate in estimating the loss/gain of popularity by FPM in the christian street.

So for those waiting for the official results from the Interior Ministry to know the percentage, don't get your hopes up bc your entire analysis will be wrong due to the expat votes.

[Libnene Qu7]

Let's not over-analyze the results. Zouxi, you look like an ostrich with its head in a hole in the ground!

[Robin Hood]

Why do you think FPM got less percentage of Christian vote this time?

1. Propaganda and lies.

2. Buying votes

3. The bringing of expats

4. The Patriarch's stance

5. The MoU with Hezbollah

6. Relations with Syria

7. Other

[Ataraxia]

Originally Posted by Venom

Wrong analysis!!

1- The expats are Lebanese and that's not an excuse
2-Why we didn't get a lot of expats? shoo na2esna? money? BS
3-Zouxi u have to base ur % on the total voters and u will notice that although we won more MPs than 2005 (2 bel tazkeeyeh and 1 granted by Jumblat) but the support declined a lot....
....

This is not a thread to self-criticize. I think FPMers have done enough of so. It is just a pure observation on the Christians voting in the elections.

To me the fairest example of the loss of support was Kesserwen were FPM only lost 3000-3,500 votes average. If this is the most GMA lost in a place like Kesserwen given the Patriarch's effect and the blatant vote-buying, then it is clear there will be no further decline of support in other areas.

[Zouxi]

Originally Posted by Venom

Wrong analysis!!

1- The expats are Lebanese and that's not an excuse
2-Why we didn't get a lot of expats? shoo na2esna? money? BS
3-Zouxi u have to base ur % on the total voters and u will notice that although we won more MPs than 2005 (2 bel tazkeeyeh and 1 granted by Jumblat) but the support declined a lot....
4-We don't represent the Christians (we have 2 Druze MPs in our bloc and 1 Shiaa), let's remember that!

1-right, but we didn't bring expats for many reasons, ustmosly money.

2-we don't represent the christians???!!! are you for real venom?? who respresents them then?? samir geagea? amine geemayel or dory chamoun??

venom, vhil out a bit, you are still under traumtic choc, despite everything we still have 55% of christian support in lebanon and 55% of general support as opposition in lebanon...

I just wonder if only 3k voters switched sides in zahleh and the opposition got all the seats of zahleh, would you have the same approach??

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