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14th May 2009
We are witnessing problems everyday, here is an article about election day: Quote: Lebanese poll poses security problem
Mitchell Prothero, Foreign Correspondent
The National- BEIRUT // The decision to hold Lebanon’s parliamentary elections on a single day in early June will stretch the nation’s security and military forces beyond their ability to properly secure the country, leaving voters vulnerable to sectarian and political violence in the tense election environment, the military, intelligence and police services officials say. Security officials told the cabinet several months ago that Lebanon’s military commitments to a UN peacekeeping mission along the Israeli and Syrian borders require a huge portion of the country’s security forces and that both the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces lack the manpower to adequately maintain order during the elections, officials present at the briefing said.
Cabinet officials loyal to the pro-western government of the prime minister, Fouad Siniora, or to the opposition coalition led by the Shiite militant group Hizbollah rejected a request by security officials that the country be divided into four sections with each hold voting on consecutive weekends. This format was used during the 2005 elections when the army faced far fewer mandatory deployments. “We have less men available than we did in 2005, more tension and far more potential for violence, and yet the cabinet refused to accept the same schedule for the voting,” a senior military official said in an interview.
“I do not want to alarm my country; it is my job to secure it. But as it stands now, one terrorist with a pistol could change the outcome of this election without even killing anyone. And there’s little we can do to prevent it. We will not have enough men to secure all the sites.”
Another military official described the problem as a simple “matter of arithmetic”.
“We have about 50,000 men in the [army],” he said. “Even assuming all of them are available for duty, we are required by a United Nation’s resolution to keep 18,000 soldiers alongside Unifil below the Litani River [along the Israeli border]. Another 12,000 are mandated for patrols along the Syrian border to stop weapons smuggling to the resistance. And securing Beirut on a normal day requires 8,000 men to be deployed. That leaves 12,000 soldiers to secure the entire country.”
None of the security or military officials interviewed could allow their names to be used criticising decisions of the civilian authorities. Spokespersons at both the interior and defence ministries refused to comment on the claims and pointed to a plan made public on May 5 by a working group of security and military officials to secure the voting process. The Central Security Council established the plan under the leadership of the interior minister, Ziad Baroud, announcing that a task force composed of 30,000 military and security officers would be adequate to conduct the elections, a ratio that one expert on the Lebanese military and population-centric military operations describes as troubling.
“This year’s round of elections is going to present a serious security challenge for the Lebanese Armed Forces,” said Andrew Exum, an analyst at the Centre for a New American Security who specialises in Middle East security issues.
“In years past, when different regions voted on consecutive weekends, the army could more or less shift its resources from week to week in order to secure the country region by region. This year, that’s impossible. If you look at the Lebanese population, approximately 3.7 million people, and the numbers in the army and internal security services, you’re left with a troops-to-population ratio that doesn’t bode well for security the day of the election.”
One intelligence official described the concern as “grave” and described how even minor incidents in a key polling area could change the outcome of what appears to be a close race with only a few key areas likely to decide the outcome.
“A single person with a pistol decides to fire some shots in the air near a polling station in Metn [a key district]. The Lebanese media is famous for being sectarian and hysterical, so let’s say pro-opposition television stations announce that government supporters are attacking voters in that area: if just 5,000 Armenian voters stay home because they hear it’s dangerous, that could change the election.”
One ISF officer said the lack of available army manpower has put huge pressure on the police services, which are widely considered by the public to be less professional, more sectarian and poorly trained by the public compared with the army. “All the responsibly is on us!” he said. “We are in a real test this time, because the people usually don’t trust [the ISF] as much as they do with the army. We are stressing out and our generals are stressing us out. [They tell us] ‘This is a test to prove that Lebanon is able to govern itself’. “My opinion is that it will partly secure and safe, only in some hot districts like Ashrafia, Bashoura, Matn and maybe Batroun [will there be problems]. On the election day, I don’t think it will be out of hand, but the days after are going to be crucial, then we will see how things are going to drift.”
Mr Exum said the anticipation of trouble in key districts should draw additional attention from the military, possibly at the expense of other areas.
“The army is going to have to make some very hard choices. It might be wiser, for example, to focus on areas where you know the elections will be heavily contested – such as the Metn – and leave under-patrolled those areas where you do not expect clashes,” he said. | ...and everybody attacked GMA when he asked those valid questions about securing election day. | | | | | The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to ecce homo For This Useful Post: | | | Orange Room Supporter
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14th May 2009
gma doesn't do what is politically correct, just what is correct regardless of anything else. | | | | | The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Red Phoenix For This Useful Post: | | | Registered Member
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14th May 2009
the governement will say it is an issue when someone will attack during the elections and when we'll have dead people
it will find out a solution after the event of election, like when the police arrives at the end of the troubles in the american films or lets say in the world films...
GMA is trying to prevent all those issues but actually he isnt heard by his opponents , they are spending their time to find out how to ruin his reputation by inventing all sorts of problems not related to our current bad situation...
the difference between GMA and THEM, it is that he cares about the nation and They care about their pockets and how to cheat the Nation | | | | | The Following User Says Thank You to Libnan Ot3et Sama For This Useful Post: | | | Orange Room Moderator
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14th May 2009
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Originally Posted by Libnan Ot3et Sama the governement will say it is an issue when someone will attack during the elections and when we'll have dead people
it will find out a solution after the event of election, like when the police arrives at the end of the troubles in the american films or lets say in the world films...
GMA is trying to prevent all those issues but actually he isnt heard by his opponents , they are spending their time to find out how to ruin his reputation by inventing all sorts of problems not related to our current bad situation...
the difference between GMA and THEM, it is that he cares about the nation and They care about their pockets and how to cheat the Nation | Typical rotten governmental behaviour. After so many blunders like that, it makes one think that they are doing it on purpose.
P.S. Nice to have you back in the forum, especially that I had the pleasure to give you your first thank you. | | | | | The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to GMA forever For This Useful Post: | | | Orange Room Supporter
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14th May 2009
The Army should retrieve 5000 of its troops from the South borders and 5000 other troops from the Syrian border. This is for just 12 hours.
Also, 3000 (of the 8000 ) troops should be retrieved from Beirut, and replaced by 3000 ISF, who should be mixed with Army troops, and put under the orders of the Army command.
That leaves the Army with 25 000 troops to dispose of in the whole country, in addition to around 15 000 ISF, that should be mixed with Army troops and put under the orders of the Army command.
The ratio of distribution of troops should then be done in light of the risk that each region might pose.
The lack of number can be compensated in certain areas by mobile units, constantly on the move, and tactical check points.
50 000 troops in total might not be much, but they might be enough, if put under good and capable command.
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14th May 2009
Will minister Baroud state what will be done if there is a problem in a region. Will they accept the results or will they postpone elections in that spefic region? | | | | | Orange Room Moderator
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14th May 2009
عصابة مسلحة تقتحم مركز التيار الوطني الحر في مزبود وتضرم النار فيه حارس المركز أحمد ربابي ينجو من رصاص المسلحين وعائلة فادي قولاغاسي يتم إنقاذها عبر سطح المبنى
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Originally Posted by ecce homo عصابة مسلحة تقتحم مركز التيار الوطني الحر في مزبود وتضرم النار فيه حارس المركز أحمد ربابي ينجو من رصاص المسلحين وعائلة فادي قولاغاسي يتم إنقاذها عبر سطح المبنى
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Originally Posted by GMA forever Where is Mazboud exactly? | The municipality of Mazboud is located in the Kaza of Chouf 7ad Ch7eem  | | | | | The Following User Says Thank You to Libnan Ot3et Sama For This Useful Post: | | | Orange Room Moderator
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14th May 2009
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Originally Posted by GMA forever Where is Mazboud exactly? | Iqleem Al Kharoub region Maps maaniye, ketermaya, chhim, mazboud, majdalouna, nahr el awuali | | | | | The Following User Says Thank You to ecce homo For This Useful Post: | |  | | |
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