In the following thread, I will divide the topic into two parts. The first one will focus on the reasons that made FPM not able to realize its desire of becoming a parliamentary majority, while the second part will focus on what needs to be done to make this wish a reality in the coming future.
FPM has failed in attaining its objective of becoming a majority. There is no need to deny it. However, for some failing to reach one's goal constitutes as a loss while for others a loss has other parameters to define it. I will not go into the debate about whether FPM lost or won, I will stick to what prevented FPM from reaching its major goal:
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The media outlets: It's known throughout the world that the media is the single most influential entity when it comes to elections. In this domain, FPM's media arsenal behaved very poorly. For starters, they managed to alienate all loyalist partisans and even the independents, those very same people that must be worked on in order to win any election. FPM's media seemed to satisfy itself with targeting only one type of audience: the hardcore partisans. Heck, even I personally loathed OTV's introduction. How is one supposed to deliver the right message to the voter if you don't cater to the entire spectrum? How do you expect to convince those who do not watch you? The main problem is not with the message but in the means it is conveyed in. Take a look at LBC and learn how to play the media game.
Then comes FPM's online arsenal. tayyar.org moved from being a professional unbiased (to a certain extent) online outlet to a FPM's mouthpiece and a gossip site.
This very forum transformed from one explaining FPM's ideals and message as well as luring the undecided into a pis*ing contest with the other factions, ultimately making FPM lose a valuable asset in the cyber world.
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The HA issue:: Although the MOU is certainly one of FPM's biggest accomplishments, the party went way too far in its alliance with HA. On every corner, FPM officials and the party leader started defending HA, its actions, and its weapons. In almost every speech or press conference, FPM fell into the trap of mentioning HA and praising it. The attempt might have been to minimize the fears of the "christians" from HA and to try to make them accustomed to it, but FPM went too far one would think both parties were one and the same. Not to mention how the loyalists successfully managed to always bring FPM into the defensive by just mentioning HA, while it was FPM who should have been on the offensive regarding the weapons and how to deal with them. Defending an ally's every move is neither an obligation nor a prerequisite. It actually hurt more then helped.
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Lack of party organization: This alone minimized FPM's strength by half at least. With no clear structure and organization, FPM had to once again rely on personal initiatives. Many events got ultimately messed due to poor planning and organization.
There's also the issue of GMA having to do everything, whilst a party leader should be restricted to a certain number of activities and appearances. GMA's numerous media appearances minimized the impact of his statements and declarations and ate away at his image and aura.
Not to mention the serious lack of think tanks. These are the basis for any successful resilient lasting party. One has to think ahead and be prepared for all the probable scenarios.
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Sectarianism: FPM was lured into this game by its opponents and it tried to fight on a field mastered by its foes. When it comes down to playing on sectarian fears, FPM has no chance against LF or Kataeb in this domain.
The clashes with the clergy certainly didn't go well with defending "christians" strategy. When u want to defend ur sect, the easiest route is to get the clergy by your side and do the evil work. In this aspect, FPM refused to go all the way down the sectarian path but opted to used it for short term benefits. If anything, it only hurt its principles, and exhibited some hypocrisy.
Not to mention that the christian rights alienated many of the previous FPM non christian sympathizers who found no personal benefit in venturing down this path and had to look for their own sectarian leaders to aid them. As well, FPM, although it didn't intend to, antagonized the sunni street. The constant alignment with the shiites, the defense of May 7, the constant all out attacks on the sunni leadership (I know criticizing FM is not attacking the sunni, but that's not how the average sunni perceives it, and it's not like FPM tried to explain its position to the sunni base), the claims that sunni votes silenced the christians' votes in the elections, all of this certainly didn't help in gaining the sympathy of the sunni population.,
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The expats: Despite being the only side to support the expats' right to vote, FPM failed to grasp that most of them have no clue about the reality of Lebanese politics. Most of them were happy to vote for the side that paid for their tickets and their stay in Lebanon. FPM seriously underestimated the impact of the expats' votes on the elections turnout. Those expats helped the loyalists win in the crucial districts and minimize the difference in the tough to beat districts.
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The dichotomy and the principles: FPM has vowed to tackle corruption and eradicate feudalism, but found itself aligned with some corrupt and shady figures under the banner of pragmatism. This dichotomy seriously hurt FPM's credibility regarding its goals and its reform agenda.
Yet, all is not list. FPM can still rise up to the challenge and use this setback to its advantage.
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Party elections: this is now the most crucial step. It needs to be done with as quickly as possible. The right people in the right posts would make the job much easier and everything smoother. The continuity of the party depends on it.
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Taking a step back from HA: this is in no way means dropping the MOU or forsaking the alliance with HA, but it's about time FPM stops defending HA like it's our baby sister. Let HAers defend HA. Let them defend their weapons. FPM presented a means to ending this weapon's existence, so it should stop acting defensive about it. We should be on the offensive every time this subject is mentioned. Let's focus on our own agenda and not make the foolish mistakes of becoming more royalists than the king.
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restructure FPM's media outlets: I personally believe OTV's intro should go. In all western countries, such heresy does not exist. But if it's unavoidable, let it not be as provocative as it is now. OTV should start appealing more to the independents and neutrals, and even the foes. Less political programs and more social ones could go a long way.
Regarding tayyar.org, the gossips and tit-for-tat should stop. Posting articles that don't necessarily agree with FPM can go a long way in having the site gain credibility and ultimately boost the ratings.
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Designate a spokesman to answer all allegations: GMA should only appear on special occasions or when serious matters dictate so. Appointing a FPM media spokesman (Kenaan perhaps?) to answer the journalists' questions could help GMA evade the feud with the journalists and let him not have to reply to meaningless issues and epsilons. A party leader should not get involved in the tiny details of lebanese politics.
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Find sources for funding: As they say, fight fire with fire. Since the lebanese have proven to be people with lust for services, FPM should start on tackling this venue, but of course with no demands in return. I'm not saying FPM to become a charity organization nor a Murr party, but something between the 2. If we can't bring that through the government (as I don't see FPM joining it), let's accomplish it from the outside. I know many might not agree with this, I do not even like it, but sometimes to fulfill ur nobler goals, u must sacrifice a little.
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Tackle the expats issue: FPM should push for the expats to vote in their respective embassies in 2013, but if that won't happen, I think FPM has 2 options: either better deliver its message to the disapora (here lies the job of the FPM media mostly, but committees as well) or bring a lot of expats to vote. I have come to the conclusion that no matter what FPM does, if FM repeats the same expat scenario in 2013, FPM will lose again. So at least, we should level the playing field. Hence, from now FPM must think of ways to allocate the necessary budget to do so, but that should be resorted to only in case the expats are not allowed to vote in their respective countries.
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Be more active on the ground: FPM is from the people and should stay with the people. The FPM message must be delivered to everyone, and there are multiple ways to do that. Elections should not be the only time when this occurs. Now we have a 56 page program, let's start trying to get a copy into every home (which should have happened already
), and training teams in properly sending the message. Listening to the people's concerns and relaying it to the leadership will help a lot.
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End the sectarian demands: FPM should start opening up to all sects and that can be done by changing FPM's officials and leaders' speeches and tactics. The same should apply to FPM's media outlets. FPM is the only side which has the capacity to appeal to individuals from all sects, so it should start changing its message and tactics. Enough with the "christian" rights, it got us nowhere except losing even more christian support. FPM has a mission, and whoever jumps on board is welcome, be it christian, sunni, shiite, etc... And plz, no more saying that the MOU is a christian-shiite understanding. Tactics that proved to be a failure ought to be cast aside, and only the ones that actually cater to the citizen no matter his sect or class or hierarchy must be used.
I'm sure there are a lot of points to be mentioned further, but the post is already long enough as it is. So any positive addition is more than welcomed. And let's keep it a high-level debate, away from the tit-for-tat omnipresent in the rest of the threads.
Denied expectations spelling much needed shape up -
11th June 2009
