Comparison of loyalists and C&R Results between 2005 and 2009

[MockingBird]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

1- i have no reservation about flaming when it is deerved. i dont have much time to lose nancing around and dancing around the truth. and the truth is that you are driving to deliver a political message using a wrong hypotisis as a fact; tsu2, not on my watch.

2- i am not sure where M14 policies differ from those of FPM regarding syria, HA, and iran. in fact our position is clearer and straighter. so as a result, it was obvious that the choice between FPM and Feb14 is not based on a cut distinction based on these issues, it is rather the result of shady means to achieve shady ends.


in case you didn't notice, both hariri and jumblat are in bed with HA. so why all the tensions and the ****? you should be thanking GMA that he had the courage and the clarity of mind to get you there on the least expensive route.

the visit to syria is an excellent move; we are minorities in the middle east, and there are 2million Christians living in Syria. the visit wasn't at the expense of our national unity, it wasn't at the expense of our freedom, nor at the expense of our independence nor at the expense of our sovreignty.
but you would rather follow a clown like jumblat, who curses bashar one day and says he's a "qird" and tries to kiss his a** the second day.
fa isa fi shi zero zero zero zero zero zero, it is not the visit, it is rather your own judgment and your inability to realize that syria is out of Lebanon.

eh, that's one of GMA's problems and he has to work on it. that's about the only thing that's true in your statement, GMA is not very subtle when it comes to these things. that doesn't make your other points true, you're just mixing some truth with plenty of fiction.

What I'm trying to say is that FPM on its own was really strong in 2005 with a clear majority of christian support.

The 2009 elections results proved that strategic mistakes were done during the past four years. The arguments you are giving for this failure are weak. It's not about money- it always existed.
It's not about media coverage- OTV didn't exist in 2005
and It was much more than expatriates.

IT WAS THE POLITICAL CHOICES OF FPM AND ESPECIALLY THEIR ALLIES
You are still not able to cearly READ what people really want (their fears, their thoughts, their culture , their history and where they come from...)

NOT YOU - NOT EVEN BIGGER PARTIES CAN CHANGE THE MENTALITY AND CULTURE OF A COMMUNITY - YOU NEED TO TAKE IT AS IT IS AND DRIVE IT TO A NEW DIRECTION.
It was too much for christians to chew in just four years .

For those wondering if I'm FPMer or not.
I voted FPM full list in 2005 and in 2009.
I like FPM but not his allies. I prefer FPM in the middle having connections with all other lebanese parties including FM , Marada, Kataeb, PSP , LF , HA and AMAL.

I don't like the isolated and anti-western FPM.
I don't like FPM when they defend HA - they have tongues they can speak
I don't like FPM when they attack the media
I don't like SSNP and Baath and leftist ideologies coming from history books
I like FPM when they run against Amal in jezzine
I like FPM when they defend christian rights

cheers

[Mahmoum]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

on a serious note, it is estimated that about 130000 voters were flown in from outside to participate in the elections, and considering that the hariri coallition was targetting the christian areas let's reduce that number by 30000, and following the estimates that at least 75% of these voted to the loyalists favor, that brings the number of additional Feb14 votes to 75000 which is very close and comparable to the 73300 M14 additional votes shown in the table.


in other words, if you leave the vote of the foreigners on the side, you will end up with the following:

1. about 150000 votes for FPM, and 90000 votes for the Christian hariri followers.
2. Feb14 Christian frata still got the same comparable number of votes in 2005 and 2009 about 93000
3. the majority of the people who were pro-FPM in 2005 and dind't vote for FPM in 2009 didn't vote for Feb14 either.

there is no mistake that FPM's support shrunk, but it is not as horrible as some would like to beieve. how to recover, that's a different story.

note that there is a margin of 10% for error in the estimates i am giving, given various factors.

Dark, what I love in your observation is that Patrirch talk on Saturday 6, and the propaganda done by 14-March on Welayet el Fakeh, etc. didn't make a big change in the Christian street (We adopted this because we were under the chock, ...)

The opposition didn't pay attention to the exportation and transportation of votes, excepting that I can't see any failure. After all, we are victims to the election law!

[CitizenOfTheRepublic]

Originally Posted by mickey117

How many times do we have to repeat it? Mockingbird pretends to be FPM but he is not! check his early posts!

I think it is a bit wrong to consider that all FPMers and pro-FPM have the same priorities and the same political opinions.
Mockingbird is just an example of how varied the opinions are within one camp. He has a lot of positions, but the ones that matter most to him coincide with FPM's, hence his vote.

To ostracize him is a mistake, because one has to understand that even with the same formation opinions differ, and it is not a matter of schizophrenia or rebellion within a party. And I am sure he is not alone.

In Lebanon, this concept is a bit foreign still, but check the Sarkozy vs Chirac, Clinton vs Obama, Huckabee vs McCain... These are all prime examples of internal democratic practices.

I am all for internal different opinions, though I am not sure it would be beneficial to FPM to have it out in the open yet, considering how ready the Lebanese people is for such an experience. Sociologically, I believe the knee-jerk reaction of a normal citizen would be to consider that FPM is crumbling from inside.

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by MockingBird

What I'm trying to say is that FPM on its own was really strong in 2005 with a clear majority of christian support.

The 2009 elections results proved that strategic mistakes were done during the past four years. The arguments you are giving for this failure are weak. It's not about money- it always existed.
It's not about media coverage- OTV didn't exist in 2005
and It was much more than expatriates.

IT WAS THE POLITICAL CHOICES OF FPM AND ESPECIALLY THEIR ALLIES
You are still not able to cearly READ what people really want (their fears, their thoughts, their culture , their history and where they come from...)

NOT YOU - NOT EVEN BIGGER PARTIES CAN CHANGE THE MENTALITY AND CULTURE OF A COMMUNITY - YOU NEED TO TAKE IT AS IT IS AND DRIVE IT TO A NEW DIRECTION.
It was too much for christians to chew in just four years .

For those wondering if I'm FPMer or not.
I voted FPM full list in 2005 and in 2009.
I like FPM but not his allies. I prefer FPM in the middle having connections with all other lebanese parties including FM , Marada, Kataeb, PSP , LF , HA and AMAL.

1-I don't like the isolated and anti-western FPM.
2-I don't like FPM when they defend HA - they have tongues they can speak
3-I don't like FPM when they attack the media
4-I don't like SSNP and Baath and leftist ideologies coming from history books
5-I like FPM when they run against Amal in jezzine
6-I like FPM when they defend christian rights

cheers

i guess me and you are the opposite sides of the coin LOLLLLLL.

1-point 1, we are not against the west, but the western policies who brought miseries to us.can you honestly tell me that the west has ever HELPED THE CHRSTIANS....

2-point 2...we do not really defend HA ,most times we are defending our MOU.definitely we need to do a better job is expalining it to the remaining 45% christians and to be on the offense too.

3-media is not unbiased in lebanon, you can not separate al nahar form sa3doun for exmaple.so not a valid point really.media is a party tool in lebanon.

4-SSNP have a bad rep , agreed. but when we compare them to the new salafi groups ....sama 7adoun. and forward to your point 6 , ( SSNP represent a sizable christian community, we need not leave them out). baath is just happened to be in opposition.i doubt we really have anything to do with it at all.

5-we ran in jezzine, not to spite anyone.BUT TO PRACTICE WHAT WE PREACH ABOUT SELF DECISION. that is why we will never knowtow to sa3doun wa ze3ranou.or for the west for that matter.

6-christian rights are a by product of our message, in order to go forward we need to liberate our people.
in order to do that we had to raise the alarm about their usurped rights and 7ou2ouq.
this was used by the other usurpers to perfect the victm role play that GENERAL is out to get the sunnis...
this did not shame us to withdraw our demands neither in 05 nor in 09.
actually because of us, many in 14shbatt christians are enjoying sa3doun short span attention.

on a personal opinion: HA is the real danger that you think it is.if you can put aside your prejudices for a moment and study the history of the lebanese christians for the past 1000 years , I AM SURE YOU WILL REALZE WHO IS THE REAL DANGER.
try to be a neutral for an hour.

[only1]

Originally Posted by Zouxi

you forgot to add :

-22k in akkar
-1k in minyeh
-1k in tripoli
-2k in bcharre
-20k in the south
-6k in southern bekaa
-3k in baalbeck
-12k in koura
-16k in aley
-15k in chouf

total:95k...95k+179k =274k for C%R, of which FPM has at least 200k...(18k for tachnag, 14k for skaff, 18k for SSNP and 22k for marada).

Unfortunately, these Kilos were not enough

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by mickey117

How many times do we have to repeat it? Mockingbird pretends to be FPM but he is not! check his early posts!

not necessarily.

FPM is made up of a wide range of affiliatons and opinions.

some people think i am an lf.
some members could be mistaken for HA
and so on.

personally i like the wide diversity and i believe it is very healthy.

[Hierombalos]

yes but the issue is conceptually different from what it is portrayed to be.
let me be less cryptic.

the choices of alliances FPM made, the strategies it undertook, were not in hopes of attaining a certain goal. i.e. presidency for GMA, power or whatever.

some of us may have understood what GMA is trying to do for the past 4 years, some of us haven't.

the truth is that had lebanon been a normal country, wouldn't care who would win the elections, the issues at stake would be legislation to stop dogs from defecating on the roads, and the taxation rates in a normal economy.

instead lebanon is still at its existential stage, and the system set by our forefathers with external guarantees in 1943 (i can go back further) is no viable anymore.

it has resulted into a tripartite fracture of lebanese society confessionally. and the mistakes of the old political eladershps amde the people incapable of sound evolution.

i don't like baath, nor do i believe in SSNP ideology, but both of them exist, and have sizeable representation. i cannot deny it from them. i can compete politically, wth them

at the same time i need to understand they are both viable political options for my fellow lebanese, much like any party is. their growth comes at the expense of my failures ad vice versa.

at the same time, i need to understand that if FPM ceases to exist in the coming decade, who will replace it in the political arena? LF? Kataeb? FM? etc...?

through Baath and SSNP, GMA has rehabilitated, at least in the minds of those who voted for him this round, the ability to accept any party, dissociating themselves from the kataeb mentality that has been sewn in the minds of the populace since the 1960's at the very least.

i understand mocking bird's position and i respect it.

there are people who have the exast same arguments but who vote on the other side, since for the same issues of christian rights they believe GMA and FPM are using the Hezb to attack other christians.

i hate these notions. i am against them, i am against mocking bird's arguments, much as i am against the arguments of many people from within FPM who don't seem to understand what is at stake.

the issue is not whether or not we have moved upwards or downwards, or whether expats swinged the vote, or some artificial percentage that we will tout for the next 2 years.

the issue at stake is the continued existence of the lebanese nation in the way that it was meant to be.

we should focus right now on thinking about how to preserve this nation. we must acknowledge that as it stands, the trend is going to be downwards.

in 2009 we were 1500 votes shy from loosing in keserwan, those who brought 10000 in 2009 can afford to bring 3000 more to swing the vote.

what can we do about it? what can we do to stop and break the vicious cycle political harirism has brought us in? as it stands expect whatever coalition hariri is heading to reap 83+ seats in 2013.

we have to ask ourselves not whether or not our political choices are right or wrong, because their is no right and wrong as an absolute in the first place. and not whether or not the people like it, because the people are capable of evolution, but rather where have we failed as a party to convey the messages of change we harbor. the message of a renewal in lebanese society.

we have to ask ourselves, if FPM as a party, structure, leadership, and supporters is capable of facing the challenges it has stood up against. and how it can continue to do so.

as it is we will be looking at utter failure in 2013 and still trying to find ways and arguments to validate some form of victory. truth is 2009 wasn't a victory, nor will 2013 be.

lebanon is not a normal country, and FPM wasn't a normal party, at least until 2005 it wasn't. we managed to integrate ourselves into the system such that there isn't anymore a difference between FPM and all the rest. we stooped to their levels, and let cheese eaters control the party structure.

listen to GMA's speech in chnan3ir a week before the elections, this is the last remnant of FPM as it used to be. and unless we can build on it to renew ourselves, you can kiss FPM and LEBANON goodbye in 2013.

[Mahmoum]

Originally Posted by MockingBird

you start by attacking me personally (though my reply wasn't directed to you )
then you indirectly say that there's is a 13% drop in representation...
anyway the arguments you give are very weak ... if you consider that FPM lost popularity because of money paid or media campaign then YOU ARE WRONG . 2005 conditions were not better

the drop in representation were the result OF 3 HUGE MISTAKES
1-HA love affair (totally unjustified)
2-Visit to Syria (ZERO ZERO ZERO ZERO )
3-Attacking Everybody Everywhere Anytime (Media, President, Barak, Obama, Larsen , Ban ki Moon, ...)

I don't think you are right (the FPM mistakes)

STOP saying Syria visit and HA love are the problems [love for ever as HA is right]

THE PROBLEM IS MONEY and exportation/transportation, no less no more, w STOP TANZER

FPM never started attacking others, FPM was defending and replying to their attacks and LIES

elnashra.com

العماد عون: سنقوم بعملية تقويم صارمة لآداء التيار في الانتخابات

في محاولة لحصر أسباب خسارة التيار الوطني الحر في بعض المناطق اللبنانية في الانتخابات النيابية، كتب رئيس تكتل التغيير والاصلاح العماد ميشال عون وتحت عنوان "العناصر الحاسمة في المعركة الانتخابية المال والسلطة"، "ان الحملة التي طالت التيار قبيل الانتخابات وأثناءها لا تزال متواصلة وخاصة على رئيسه ونحن نقول لكل من يشنون هكذا حملات نحن لم نخسر مقاعدنا النيابية انما كسبنا المزيد منها ولقد تحطّمت رؤوس كبيرة على صخرة البرتقاليين في كل مكان."

العماد عون لفت الى أن التيار يملك اكبر ماكينة انتخابية متطوّعة والى ان 50000 عنصر عملوا على كافة الأراضي اللبنانية وقال:" كان هناك نقص في التدريب أو في ادارة العمل ونحن بصدد معالجة كل هذه الأمور فنحن سنقوم بعملية تقويم صارمة لآداء التيار في الانتخابات النيابية."

وشدّد العماد عون على أن "عدّة عناصر تضافرت وأدّت لهذه النتائح الانتخابية ولعل أبرزها المال والسلطة"، وأضاف:"الدولة غطست من رأسها الى أخمص قدميها في أوحال المعركة الانتخابية وقد سهرت اميركا وأوروبا والممول الخليجي على ضمان فوز الفريق الآخر".

[MockingBird]

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

i guess me and you are the opposite sides of the coin LOLLLLLL.

1-point 1, we are not against the west, but the western policies who brought miseries to us.can you honestly tell me that the west has ever HELPED THE CHRSTIANS....

2-point 2...we do not really defend HA ,most times we are defending our MOU.definitely we need to do a better job is expalining it to the remaining 45% christians and to be on the offense too.

3-media is not unbiased in lebanon, you can not separate al nahar form sa3doun for exmaple.so not a valid point really.media is a party tool in lebanon.

4-SSNP have a bad rep , agreed. but when we compare them to the new salafi groups ....sama 7adoun. and forward to your point 6 , ( SSNP represent a sizable christian community, we need not leave them out). baath is just happened to be in opposition.i doubt we really have anything to do with it at all.

5-we ran in jezzine, not to spite anyone.BUT TO PRACTICE WHAT WE PREACH ABOUT SELF DECISION. that is why we will never knowtow to sa3doun wa ze3ranou.or for the west for that matter.

6-christian rights are a by product of our message, in order to go forward we need to liberate our people.
in order to do that we had to raise the alarm about their usurped rights and 7ou2ouq.
this was used by the other usurpers to perfect the victm role play that GENERAL is out to get the sunnis...
this did not shame us to withdraw our demands neither in 05 nor in 09.
actually because of us, many in 14shbatt christians are enjoying sa3doun short span attention.

on a personal opinion: HA is the real danger that you think it is.if you can put aside your prejudices for a moment and study the history of the lebanese christians for the past 1000 years , I AM SURE YOU WILL REALZE WHO IS THE REAL DANGER.
try to be a neutral for an hour.

1-east and west brought miseries to lebanese and especially christians - these 2 millions christian never done anything when we were under occupation - strategically they are almost nothing.
2-MOU has been given more than it can handle - HA has a clear ideology and when it comes to his principles the MOU will affect nothing.
3-Media is always biased especially OTV - so what? you have the tools - use it - the others never complain from OTV / GMA bash nahar each time he speaks
4-SSNP were syrian puppets for decades and still are. You are overestimating their size.
5-Lebanon is not a normal country- it is composed of three communities that vote for different parties. FPM should make up their mind before bein relegated to the SSNP / Baath /LCP and other leftist groups that find no role in a Secterian Environment. Christians are ready to vote FPM when FPM only speak about their DIRECT worries not HA worries all the time.
6- this mentality is totally wrong. WHO ARE YOU TO LIBERATE PEOPLE??
JESUS CHRIST? people are free and have intelligence to chose - YOU NEED TO FIND OUT WHAT YOU NEED TO CHANGE TO ANSWER THEM.

The number 1 danger is palestinian naturalisation. And saadoun and co are working to achieve it. on the other side HA ideology , beards , shador and arms come straight from the worst nightmares of the christian community.
FPM IS SIMPLY ASKING TOO MUCH ON THIS LEVEL.

why not just being in the middle - fight for cristian rights and support HA on some issues like internal participation and be agaisnt on other issues...
TRY TO LEARN FROM THE JENS 3ATIL WALID JUMBLATT
HE CAN BE THE MOST HAWKISH AND THE MOST MODERATE AT OTHER TIMES.
HE READS BEST THE LEBANESE CULTURE , SOCIETY AND MENTALITY
HE ALWAYS COMES OUT AS THE WINNER -

[hannaalsayssa]

wello has a community that blidly follows him no matter what.

but i bet you if the resources spent fighting us were to be spent on wello supporters he will have bigger problems than us.

you need to realize that in order to stop the PALESTINIANS settlement we need to work hand in hand with the shia and especially HA.

again the ideology of HA at nay moment threatened us or our existence.
it is sa3doun wahhabi ideology that you fail to mention that is the bane to our existence.

we might not agree on this point but i truly hope the day will not come when i will tell you,

I TOLD YOU SO.

than it will be too little too late.