Comparison of loyalists and C&R Results between 2005 and 2009

[dodzi]

Also in Ashrafieh, the rate of participation rose from an expected 25% to an unusual 40%!

[roch10452]

Originally Posted by dodzi

Also in Ashrafieh, the rate of participation rose from an expected 25% to an unusual 40%!

that was expected, in 2005 there was no competition, Gibran Tueini and Solange Gemayel won with no opponents

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by Placebo

dude your getting on my nerve with your attitude. i've been talking about the loyalists bringing expats from abroad for like a year now. i've said it over and over again and i had like 10s of people like you, from within tayyar, telling me that no way the loyalists are not being to mobilize anyone. Until the last week before the election where FPM suddenly realized the size of what was going on. thank gAd they didnt beat us more that that.
i was actually afraid that they are going to gather around 60k in total, it ended up to be around 80k, and u still think that they hold a "slight" advantage on us within the expat votes?

and in order to be able to mobilize soo much people from abroad, you need a strong intelligence machine to help u out. and they had all the western ones at their disposal.

Dude
maybe you were not following my posts to notice what i was saying.

i never said they will not mobilize anyone.
i always followed the the christian expat votes.( W EBOTH BROUGHT)
i never posted how many will they bring from other sects, that was never an issue for me.

I WILL REITRATE THIS FOR YOU ONCE AGAIN, WE BROUGHT AS MUCH AS CHRISTIAN VOTE AS THEY DID.or at worst we were close.

how many sunnis, druze, shia expat came to vote was never of interest to me, since this is not up to us to mobilize them ( it is our allies part.)

as for these 50k or 80 k expat votes thrown around are just inflated numbers.

and yes, AS I SAID IT MANY TIMES , WE WON THE CHRISTIAN VOTE AND WE LOST DUE TO THE SUNNI/DRUZE ONES....IS THAT HARD FOR YOU TO FATHOM.

WHY THEY GOT ALL THESE SUNNIS % expat AND HOW? IS AN ISSUE for another thread.

FROM BATROUN TO KOURA TO ZGAHRTA WE DID GREAT ON THE EXPAT NUMBERS OK.......
.
for god sake in zghasta we were up for over 5000K and koura by over 2000K.
only in batroun we lost and by a slim margin ( again christian vote i am talking in here). and the reason is that in the other sects we have no power over to bring them or influence them.

[Resistancefrom89]

Originally Posted by ElieCedar

Thank you for providing this great summary. It proves that M14 has gained voters in every single district you listed at the expense of M8. We are on the right path and our cause is Just....and we have the people's Trust to back it up. I can't wait till municipal elections....another sweeping victory is expected.
Elie

If LOSING the Christian Heartland Mount Lebanon from Jbeil Through Kesrwen, Metn and Baabda,and if losing Zgharta and Jezzine is what you call victory from a Christian perspective (are you saying sweeping vistory?) than "kill victory w inta bkheir"

[lebanese1]

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

Dude
maybe you were not following my posts to notice what i was saying.

i never said they will not mobilize anyone.
i always followed the the christian expat votes.( W EBOTH BROUGHT)
i never posted how many will they bring from other sects, that was never an issue for me.

I WILL REITRATE THIS FOR YOU ONCE AGAIN, WE BROUGHT AS MUCH AS CHRISTIAN VOTE AS THEY DID.or at worst we were close.

how many sunnis, druze, shia expat came to vote was never of interest to me, since this is not up to us to mobilize them ( it is our allies part.)

as for these 50k or 80 k expat votes thrown around are just inflated numbers.

and yes, AS I SAID IT MANY TIMES , WE WON THE CHRISTIAN VOTE AND WE LOST DUE TO THE SUNNI/DRUZE ONES....IS THAT HARD FOR YOU TO FATHOM.

WHY THEY GOT ALL THESE SUNNIS % expat AND HOW? IS AN ISSUE for another thread.

FROM BATROUN TO KOURA TO ZGAHRTA WE DID GREAT ON THE EXPAT NUMBERS OK.......
.
for god sake in zghasta we were up for over 5000K and koura by over 2000K.
only in batroun we lost and by a slim margin ( again christian vote i am talking in here). and the reason is that in the other sects we have no power over to bring them or influence them.

It isn't true at all. Check the numbers i posted in the table of Keserwan, Jbeil, Maten, Baabda, and zahleh (all christians)

[mickey117]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

1- i have no reservation about flaming when it is deerved. i dont have much time to lose nancing around and dancing around the truth. and the truth is that you are driving to deliver a political message using a wrong hypotisis as a fact; tsu2, not on my watch.

2- i am not sure where M14 policies differ from those of FPM regarding syria, HA, and iran. in fact our position is clearer and straighter. so as a result, it was obvious that the choice between FPM and Feb14 is not based on a cut distinction based on these issues, it is rather the result of shady means to achieve shady ends.


in case you didn't notice, both hariri and jumblat are in bed with HA. so why all the tensions and the ****? you should be thanking GMA that he had the courage and the clarity of mind to get you there on the least expensive route.

the visit to syria is an excellent move; we are minorities in the middle east, and there are 2million Christians living in Syria. the visit wasn't at the expense of our national unity, it wasn't at the expense of our freedom, nor at the expense of our independence nor at the expense of our sovreignty.
but you would rather follow a clown like jumblat, who curses bashar one day and says he's a "qird" and tries to kiss his a** the second day.
fa isa fi shi zero zero zero zero zero zero, it is not the visit, it is rather your own judgment and your inability to realize that syria is out of Lebanon.

eh, that's one of GMA's problems and he has to work on it. that's about the only thing that's true in your statement, GMA is not very subtle when it comes to these things. that doesn't make your other points true, you're just mixing some truth with plenty of fiction.

How many times do we have to repeat it? Mockingbird pretends to be FPM but he is not! check his early posts!

[CitizenOfTheRepublic]

Originally Posted by Armenian

The results clearly show that the number of voters lost for each side is not the same as the number of voters gained for the other side.

It is clear that the total number of voters in each caza has increased, C&R has somehow maintained their numbers as 2005, but the increased numbers mostly went to M14.

And also it is clear that most of these increased numbers are the Lebanese who came from abroad. So as a conclusion we can say that C&R didn't do a good job in the Diaspora or/and is not very popular.

I know that truth hurts but it is very difficult to approach a Lebanese living outside of Lebanon the same way you approach in Lebanon...

Here the media shows a different image of the Lebanese politics... It shows how bad HA is and it shows that the opposition is represented by HA...

So don't expect an independent Lebanese to vote for the side that includes HA... I've had these conversations with tons of Lebanese living here in Canada and all of them had the same reaction...

Even the hardcore Tashnag partisans, who are Lebanese, see it that way so what do you expect from independents??

I am saying this to enlighten a truth that we all ignored, unfortunately...

So if C&R wants to change the minds of the Diaspora Lebanese, they should put a big plan and work on it, and not just wish that they will vote for them because of their politics in Lebanon...

This is a very serious problem...

Thank you!!

I completely agree with what you said. FPM's organization, at least in the Northeastern US where I live, seems to have completely dropped the ball.

There was some sort of nonchalance on their part stemming from the fact that nothing can be done since the medias are not on our side. Instead of seeking ways to overcome this, there was a capitulation.

What didn't help at all, is what the expats perceived as an anti-Western feeling, which is just flat out untrue. The position of FPM was once again not clearly spelled out to its constituents and the independents. But IMHO this is not a problem with just the expats, but even in Lebanon proper. The message was not short clear and intelligible, but rather was ambiguous muffled and too vague.

[Dark Angel]

Originally Posted by ElieCedar

You have Lost 17000 voters from "your Base" and you didn't grow a "Single new" voter.... in other words, your organic growth is "ZERO" :-).. and you are still analyzing and advancing defunct theories on this forum (Batrak ou Moghtarebeen ou Arman, etc.,..).....
Elie

Murr actually has 100000 supporters, so when he went to your side he raised all your numbers.


so if you take the number of votes murr got you, you will find out that you have actually lost 25000 without gaining a single vote, while FPM gained 83000 new votes.

[Dark Angel]

on a serious note, it is estimated that about 130000 voters were flown in from outside to participate in the elections, and considering that the hariri coallition was targetting the christian areas let's reduce that number by 30000, and following the estimates that at least 75% of these voted to the loyalists favor, that brings the number of additional Feb14 votes to 75000 which is very close and comparable to the 73300 M14 additional votes shown in the table.


in other words, if you leave the vote of the foreigners on the side, you will end up with the following:

1. about 150000 votes for FPM, and 90000 votes for the Christian hariri followers.
2. Feb14 Christian frata still got the same comparable number of votes in 2005 and 2009 about 93000
3. the majority of the people who were pro-FPM in 2005 and dind't vote for FPM in 2009 didn't vote for Feb14 either.

there is no mistake that FPM's support shrunk, but it is not as horrible as some would like to beieve. how to recover, that's a different story.

note that there is a margin of 10% for error in the estimates i am giving, given various factors.

[Zouxi]

you forgot to add :

-22k in akkar
-1k in minyeh
-1k in tripoli
-2k in bcharre
-20k in the south
-6k in southern bekaa
-3k in baalbeck
-12k in koura
-16k in aley
-15k in chouf

total:95k...95k+179k =274k for C%R, of which FPM has at least 200k...(18k for tachnag, 14k for skaff, 18k for SSNP and 22k for marada).