Comparison of loyalists and C&R Results between 2005 and 2009

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by mickey117

NOTE: the Zgharta numbers include aprox. 3000 sunni votes in 2005 and 5500 in 2009

so does
matn ( sunni, shia,druze)
batroun ( sunni)

if we can get the excat numbers of christians in those kazas we will realize that we have a higher % of core christian voters.

[Placebo]

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

we are talking abiout christians numbers in here
and 14shbatt could never bring 50K from oversees.
it simply such numbers do not exist.

granted they brought a lot but that does not account for these discepancies.

1-expat ( i still believe that we match them on this issue with 14shbatt holding a slight adv in some kazas).christian wise votes.


WHAT WE LACK IS THE GUT TO PLAY THEIR DIRTY GAME.

dude your getting on my nerve with your attitude. i've been talking about the loyalists bringing expats from abroad for like a year now. i've said it over and over again and i had like 10s of people like you, from within tayyar, telling me that no way the loyalists are not being to mobilize anyone. Until the last week before the election where FPM suddenly realized the size of what was going on. thank gAd they didnt beat us more that that.
i was actually afraid that they are going to gather around 60k in total, it ended up to be around 80k, and u still think that they hold a "slight" advantage on us within the expat votes?

and in order to be able to mobilize soo much people from abroad, you need a strong intelligence machine to help u out. and they had all the western ones at their disposal.

[MockingBird]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

You obviously are either arithmetically impaired or logically challenged, to say the least, to make such a statement. The 50000 number you are pulling out of your hmmm imagination, could be anything above 18000 votes; and could in realty be 0; since you have no guarantee that those who voted for FPM in 2005 voted against FPM in 2009, they could have just stayed home and refrained from voting.


the reality of the matter is that FPM representation went down from 65% to 52%, and that’s a 13% drop, in the face of 4 years of LF, Phalanges, Batrak, media campaigns, instantiating sectarian fears, and a 1 billion dollars electoral campaign (750million out of saoudi Arabia alone), not to mention the shuhada's blood traffic.


even though I am disappointed cause I know FPM could have done much better had we been reacting correctly to your twisted tactics, I am actually very proud that we managed to resist all the above factors added up to a meager 13%, a number that could very well be induced by the moughtaribeen alone.

you start by attacking me personally (though my reply wasn't directed to you )
then you indirectly say that there's is a 13% drop in representation...
anyway the arguments you give are very weak ... if you consider that FPM lost popularity because of money paid or media campaign then YOU ARE WRONG . 2005 conditions were not better

the drop in representation were the result OF 3 HUGE MISTAKES
1-HA love affair (totally unjustified)
2-Visit to Syria (ZERO ZERO ZERO ZERO )
3-Attacking Everybody Everywhere Anytime (Media, President, Barak, Obama, Larsen , Ban ki Moon, ...)

[Diabolo_7]

Before making any kinds of assumptions, you have to check the increase in the total number of registered voters between 2005 and 2009, then you will have a more accurate scenario!

[Dark Angel]

Originally Posted by MockingBird

you start by attacking me personally (though my reply wasn't directed to you )
then you indirectly say that there's is a 13% drop in representation...
anyway the arguments you give are very weak ... if you consider that FPM lost popularity because of money paid or media campaign then YOU ARE WRONG . 2005 conditions were not better

1- i have no reservation about flaming when it is deerved. i dont have much time to lose nancing around and dancing around the truth. and the truth is that you are driving to deliver a political message using a wrong hypotisis as a fact; tsu2, not on my watch.

2- i am not sure where M14 policies differ from those of FPM regarding syria, HA, and iran. in fact our position is clearer and straighter. so as a result, it was obvious that the choice between FPM and Feb14 is not based on a cut distinction based on these issues, it is rather the result of shady means to achieve shady ends.

the drop in representation were the result OF 3 HUGE MISTAKES
1-HA love affair (totally unjustified)

in case you didn't notice, both hariri and jumblat are in bed with HA. so why all the tensions and the ****? you should be thanking GMA that he had the courage and the clarity of mind to get you there on the least expensive route.

2-Visit to Syria (ZERO ZERO ZERO ZERO )

the visit to syria is an excellent move; we are minorities in the middle east, and there are 2million Christians living in Syria. the visit wasn't at the expense of our national unity, it wasn't at the expense of our freedom, nor at the expense of our independence nor at the expense of our sovreignty.
but you would rather follow a clown like jumblat, who curses bashar one day and says he's a "qird" and tries to kiss his a** the second day.
fa isa fi shi zero zero zero zero zero zero, it is not the visit, it is rather your own judgment and your inability to realize that syria is out of Lebanon.

3-Attacking Everybody Everywhere Anytime (Media, President, Barak, Obama, Larsen , Ban ki Moon, ...)

eh, that's one of GMA's problems and he has to work on it. that's about the only thing that's true in your statement, GMA is not very subtle when it comes to these things. that doesn't make your other points true, you're just mixing some truth with plenty of fiction.

[ElieCedar]

Originally Posted by lebanese1

The numbers speak for themselves: just compare the number of votes we lost and the number of votes they won to understand the fraud that happenned in 2009's elections!

Thank you for providing this great summary. It proves that M14 has gained voters in every single district you listed at the expense of M8. We are on the right path and our cause is Just....and we have the people's Trust to back it up. I can't wait till municipal elections....another sweeping victory is expected.
Elie

[ElieCedar]

Originally Posted by Dark Angel

You obviously are either arithmetically impaired or logically challenged, to say the least, to make such a statement. The 50000 number you are pulling out of your hmmm imagination, could be anything above 18000 votes; and could in realty be 0; since you have no guarantee that those who voted for FPM in 2005 voted against FPM in 2009, they could have just stayed home and refrained from voting.


the reality of the matter is that FPM representation went down from 65% to 52%, and that’s a 13% drop, in the face of 4 years of LF, Phalanges, Batrak, media campaigns, instantiating sectarian fears, and a 1 billion dollars electoral campaign (750million out of saoudi Arabia alone), not to mention the shuhada's blood traffic.


even though I am disappointed cause I know FPM could have done much better had we been reacting correctly to your twisted tactics, I am actually very proud that we managed to resist all the above factors added up to a meager 13%, a number that could very well be induced by the moughtaribeen alone.

You have Lost 17000 voters from "your Base" and you didn't grow a "Single new" voter.... in other words, your organic growth is "ZERO" :-).. and you are still analyzing and advancing defunct theories on this forum (Batrak ou Moghtarebeen ou Arman, etc.,..).....
Elie

[lebanese1]

Originally Posted by ElieCedar

Thank you for providing this great summary. It proves that M14 has gained voters in every single district you listed at the expense of M8. We are on the right path and our cause is Just....and we have the people's Trust to back it up. I can't wait till municipal elections....another sweeping victory is expected.
Elie

smart conclusion!

Care to tell me from where you brought 15 000 extra Christian votes in n Zahleh while your opponnents lost only 3000?

Did they rain from the sky?

[Armenian]

Originally Posted by lebanese1

The numbers speak for themselves: just compare the number of votes we lost and the number of votes they won to understand the fraud that happenned in 2009's elections!

The results clearly show that the number of voters lost for each side is not the same as the number of voters gained for the other side.

It is clear that the total number of voters in each caza has increased, C&R has somehow maintained their numbers as 2005, but the increased numbers mostly went to M14.

And also it is clear that most of these increased numbers are the Lebanese who came from abroad. So as a conclusion we can say that C&R didn't do a good job in the Diaspora or/and is not very popular.

I know that truth hurts but it is very difficult to approach a Lebanese living outside of Lebanon the same way you approach in Lebanon...

Here the media shows a different image of the Lebanese politics... It shows how bad HA is and it shows that the opposition is represented by HA...

So don't expect an independent Lebanese to vote for the side that includes HA... I've had these conversations with tons of Lebanese living here in Canada and all of them had the same reaction...

Even the hardcore Tashnag partisans, who are Lebanese, see it that way so what do you expect from independents??

I am saying this to enlighten a truth that we all ignored, unfortunately...

So if C&R wants to change the minds of the Diaspora Lebanese, they should put a big plan and work on it, and not just wish that they will vote for them because of their politics in Lebanon...

This is a very serious problem...

Thank you!!

[Zouxi]

This shows what i have said here.