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  (#11 (permalink)) Old
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by MockingBird View Post
who cares ???
we are analysing FPM numbers
there are more than 50,000 people that voted FPM in 2005 chose somebody else in 2009
And your point is?
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Abou Sandal View Post
And your point is?
FPM should review their political stands and choices
being stubborn will lead to a bigger loss in 2013
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by MockingBird View Post
assuming that 20k-25k votes came from higher turnout and large number of FPM expats that didn't vote in 2005)
where do you get your numbers from?
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by MockingBird View Post
FPM should review their political stands and choices
being stubborn will lead to a bigger loss in 2013
Usually in democracies, popularity can go up and down sometimes depending on the mood of the day.

But what is sure is that whatever this side loses, that other side gains.

It's like Lavoisier's principle: "Rien ne se perd, rien ne se cree, tout se transforme".

Only in Lebanon, you find that one side loses 1 vote, while the other side gains at the same time 10 votes.

So unless this riddle gets solved, I would be more cautious before giving advises that match my wishful thinking.
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by MockingBird View Post
who cares ???
we are analysing FPM numbers
there are more than 50,000 people that voted FPM in 2005 chose somebody else in 2009
more than 50000 votes mate not people! you have to divide 50000 by 6 (the average seats in all quada2s) you'll get =~ 8334 voters NOT 50000 :)

in my opinion these are the brainwashed and bribed people :) respect for them!
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Abou Sandal View Post
Usually in democracies, popularity can go up and down sometimes depending on the mood of the day.

But what is sure is that whatever this side loses, that other side gains.

It's like Lavoisier's principle: "Rien ne se perd, rien ne se cree, tout se transforme".

Only in Lebanon, you find that one side loses 1 vote, while the other side gains at the same time 10 votes.

So unless this riddle gets solved, I would be more cautious before giving advises that match my wishful thinking.
This particular principles does not work in this scenario since the base numbers are not fixed to begin with.
The number of votes differ between 2005 and 2009. In theory, one side could manage to attract all the additional votes (the major jump in the figures for the Feb 14 christians), but in reality it's not fathomable at all. There could logically exist no sizable portion of the lebanese population that wasn't motivated to vote in 2005 but became motivated in 2009 and entirely for one faction. If anything, a good percentage of the population that voted in 2005 should not (or did not) have voted in 2009 after getting disappointed by both sides and getting sick of lebanese politics. In fact, this could also explain the loss of votes from FPM. Those do not necessarily transfer to the loyalists but are mostly likely people who became fed up with everyone and decided to stay home on election day.
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by MockingBird View Post
who cares ???
we are analysing FPM numbers
there are more than 50,000 people that voted FPM in 2005 chose somebody else in 2009
You obviously are either arithmetically impaired or logically challenged, to say the least, to make such a statement. The 50000 number you are pulling out of your hmmm imagination, could be anything above 18000 votes; and could in realty be 0; since you have no guarantee that those who voted for FPM in 2005 voted against FPM in 2009, they could have just stayed home and refrained from voting.


the reality of the matter is that FPM representation went down from 65% to 52%, and that’s a 13% drop, in the face of 4 years of LF, Phalanges, Batrak, media campaigns, instantiating sectarian fears, and a 1 billion dollars electoral campaign (750million out of saoudi Arabia alone), not to mention the shuhada's blood traffic.


even though I am disappointed cause I know FPM could have done much better had we been reacting correctly to your twisted tactics, I am actually very proud that we managed to resist all the above factors added up to a meager 13%, a number that could very well be induced by the moughtaribeen alone.
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Default 30th June 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by lebanese1 View Post
The numbers speak for themselves: just compare the number of votes we lost and the number of votes they won to understand the fraud that happenned in 2009's elections!




NOTE: the Zgharta numbers include aprox. 3000 sunni votes in 2005 and 5500 in 2009
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Default 1st July 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Makiabel View Post
This shows exactly what happened on the 7th of June. It shows that we've lost some votes, true, but hardly enough to change the balance in representation. We've lost about 17,000 votes, which is nothing. They gained 75,000 votes, now this is fiction. The numbers don't add up.
Hanna, FPM was able to gather around 10,000 votes from abroad,
with these numbers you can easily tell that they were able to bring in at least some 50,000. This is why they managed to come close. With all the money and ifluence they had behind them we still represent 56% aka the majority of the Christian community, not that i really like putting it in this context, but there you go...

Without forgetting Jezzine & Aakar, we've actually increased our support in these districts up to 73%.
we are talking abiout christians numbers in here
and 14shbatt could never bring 50K from oversees.
it simply such numbers do not exist.

granted they brought a lot but that does not account for these discepancies.

1-expat ( i still believe that we match them on this issue with 14shbatt holding a slight adv in some kazas).christian wise votes.

2-increase in % of voters ( keserwan, matn,zghata,) % were higher than 05.
they just managed to capturea higher % of the new voters.

3-we lost some % of supporters.
and in election each 1% is multiplied by a 2 factor, i.e.you lose 5% it translates into a 10% loss overall.

despite all that we held a slight number.
we need to re energize our machine.
we have all the know how, and expertise
anotehr factor that we overlooked, is that our FPM electoral machine functioned quiet well and did a good job.
we still lacked a bit in za3barat wa khrabeesh so they bested us in some a2lam, but i guess these shortfalls will be rectified by 2010 baladiyat.LOL.
WHAT WE LACK IS THE GUT TO PLAY THEIR DIRTY GAME.
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Default 1st July 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by lebanese1 View Post
The numbers speak for themselves: just compare the number of votes we lost and the number of votes they won to understand the fraud that happenned in 2009's elections!

The numbers don't show anything without knowing some other variables (e.g. number of expatriates brought in, etc.)

Here's an example with one possible [exaggerated to make a point] scenario:

-Zgharta:

End-result:
C&R: 17,600 to 18,000
14: 9,700 to 14,900

Detailed hypothetical scenario:
C&R lost 3,000 from 2005.
14 gained 3,000 from C&R's 2005 + 1,200 of those who didn't vote in 2005.

With Iranian 7alal money, C&R paid for 3,400 people to come vote in Zgharta.

Wanabka
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