Comparison of loyalists and C&R Results between 2005 and 2009

[lebanese1]

The numbers speak for themselves: just compare the number of votes we lost and the number of votes they won to understand the fraud that happenned in 2009's elections!

[hannaalsayssa]

great analysis.
is it possible to include the % of people who voted than and now..
it seems we mostly kept our numbers, but they got their own higher and more organized.

ALSO,IF YOU CAN DO THE SAME FOR

KOURA
BEIRUT 1.

THX.

[FPM addict]

The difference is clearly the expatriates that were brought

[hannaalsayssa]

Originally Posted by FPM addict

The difference is clearly the expatriates that were brought

not entirely
we brought expats too.

we have to admit that they were able due to several factors to unite their bases and convince many people on the side to move their ways.

as you can see we lost few % , but but the increasing the overall % , they drew many new voters to their camp.

they were more successful in scaring them their way.
they had no qulams of using any available tactics to achieve tehir goals, UNLKE US WE WERE HESIATANT.

the good thing, is we somehow managed to keep our base intact ( few loss) and thsi will help us built on it in 2013.
all is needed is to attract the new blood and some of their waivery voters back.
a mere 7% coming our way , and we will get the 60-65 % back.

[lebanese1]

Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa

great analysis.
is it possible to include the % of people who voted than and now..
it seems we mostly kept our numbers, but they got their own higher and more organized.

ALSO,IF YOU CAN DO THE SAME FOR

KOURA
BEIRUT 1.

THX.

The reason why I didn't include Koura is that in 2005 we were not allied to SSNP who had a candidate running alone back then so we can't really compare.

FPM's candidate Salim Azar got 9500 in 2005. Georges Atallah got 12100 in 2009.

The other list (same alliance and candidates) increased by 3000 votes compared to 2005!

As for Beirut 1 , we didn't run in 2005!

[Makiabel]

Originally Posted by lebanese1

The numbers speak for themselves: just compare the number of votes we lost and the number of votes they won to understand the fraud that happenned in 2009's elections!

This shows exactly what happened on the 7th of June. It shows that we've lost some votes, true, but hardly enough to change the balance in representation. We've lost about 17,000 votes, which is nothing. They gained 75,000 votes, now this is fiction. The numbers don't add up.
Hanna, FPM was able to gather around 10,000 votes from abroad, with these numbers you can easily tell that they were able to bring in at least some 50,000. This is why they managed to come close. With all the money and ifluence they had behind them we still represent 56% aka the majority of the Christian community, not that i really like putting it in this context, but there you go...

Without forgetting Jezzine & Aakar, we've actually increased our support in these districts up to 73%.

[MockingBird]

Originally Posted by FPM addict

The difference is clearly the expatriates that were brought

HEHEEE
YOU ARE A-M-A-Z-I-N-G

C&R in 2005 : 197,500 votes
C&R in 2009 : 179,500 (assuming that 20k-25k votes came from higher turnout and large number of FPM expats that didn't vote in 2005)

On a comparable basis almost 50,000 votes (25% of 197,500) of the people that voted C&R in 2005 changed their minds !!!

If you think that there is nothing wrong then there is a big problem

[GMAforGooD]

Originally Posted by MockingBird

HEHEEE
YOU ARE A-M-A-Z-I-N-G

C&R in 2005 : 197,500 votes
C&R in 2009 : 179,500 (assuming that 20k-25k votes came from higher turnout and large number of FPM expats that didn't vote in 2005)

On a comparable basis almost 50,000 votes (25% of 197,500) of the people that voted C&R in 2005 changed their minds !!!

If you think that there is nothing wrong then there is a big problem

According to your analysis, can you please inform us how many expats 14 March brought from outside?

[lebanese1]

Originally Posted by MockingBird

HEHEEE
YOU ARE A-M-A-Z-I-N-G

C&R in 2005 : 197,500 votes
C&R in 2009 : 179,500 (assuming that 20k-25k votes came from higher turnout and large number of FPM expats that didn't vote in 2005)

On a comparable basis almost 50,000 votes (25% of 197,500) of the people that voted C&R in 2005 changed their minds !!!

If you think that there is nothing wrong then there is a big problem

The higher turnout was due to the number of expats they brought and not to an excessive participation from FPM

[MockingBird]

Originally Posted by GMAforGooD

According to your analysis, can you please inform us how many expats 14 March brought from outside?

who cares ???
we are analysing FPM numbers
there are more than 50,000 people that voted FPM in 2005 chose somebody else in 2009