C&R Bloc will have how many MPs in 2009?

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by lebanese1

What is the problem if we take Samir Azar on our list in Jezzine? Isn't he supposed to be an ally especially that they will give us some MPs in Marje3youn, Baalback etc?

The issue was initially raised when one member tried to hint that HA and Amal will not give up seats for FPM in baalbeck and Jezzine as if they have the upper hand in these areas. This may apply to baalbeck, but certainly not Jezzine.

Salim Azar may be a candidate in 2009 in Jezzine, but unequivocally not due to Amal not giving up a seat in Jezzine bc it's not the dominant electoral force in the caza.

[Smarties]

Originally Posted by vegojimbo

MM has a base of about 8000 voters at best. It's divided about 60% pro-kataeb which all of them voted for AG in 2007 by-elections, 20% pro-FPM (which will vote FPM and MM at the same time), and 20% pure Murr (which will vote as the boss demands).

In 2007, Murr managed to give FPM about 1500-2000 votes from his pure Murr supporters, the pro-FPM Murr supporters would have voted for FPM regardless of MM's wishes (about 1500), and about 4500-5000 pro-kataeb Murr supporters voted for AG.
So if Murr sides with AG, FPM will be losing about 1800-2000 voters (the pure Murr supporters) bc it already lost all the pro-kataeb Murr supporters. The pro-FPM Murr supporters will still vote for FPM even if Murr allies with Kataeb, however they will put MM's name alongside the C&R list.

Now, can't FPM manage to recuperate the 4000 votes margin (-2000 from its share and +2000 for the opposing list)? I bet that the very issue of Murr being out of C&R will boost FPM's votes. The choice of the candidates will also play its role. A clear program might help in this regards as well.

Why are ppl still forgetting that Murr's base is actually formed from different factions? With the return and rise of the parties these supporters were originally inclined towards, Murr lost a lot of his power and is no longer a major player in Metn. His only remaining card is tashnag, but they don't seem to be willing to ditch FPM, so the risk and burden is on MM to be able to snatch a seat, and not on FPM which will easily snatch 4 and will have to work hard to retain the remaining 4.

I like your input it makes sense, it is a true representation of the metn electoral map. Thanks!

[Smarties]

Originally Posted by sanfour

yes, of course
I noticed that every sentence you wrote is in the past tense....
just like any other party, some parties can go back to the seventies
of the last century and say that without them there would be NO
lebanon.....let's talk in the future tense please.
for example:
Are C&R/FPM willing to announce that they will be working
on the abolition of Political Confessionalism and toward secularism
or are they afraid that they may lose if they announce it?

PAST, saro wara ba3doun my friends, the events up to the previous weeks, this is the present my friend, ur argument doesnt hold, but I respect your views and I am happy you aknowledge the achievements !

[Smarties]

Originally Posted by sanfour

enno, it was an example of the many points included in the political
program......another example also because they said that they will
fight corruption BUT lately i thought i heard something like
"IF we come accross something related to corruption, we will announce it
to the public",
what happened to the promised auditing/financial investigation?
are we waiting for coincidence? ya3neh natrine chi 7arameh yoghlat?

man kil ma ysir chi they talk about it, but how can u reach such a goal if u were in opposition. the opposition role is to challenge the ones who are in power and the C&R block did just that, so i dont agree with you. As for the comin months, the C&R are in power, lets see what they will do, but dont be harsh on thier accomplishments in the comin months , as indeed its sometimes impossible to make drastic changes on somethin that was happenin for many many years in just 6 or 7 months....so lets wait and see

[Canadian]

I asked the question before and I'll ask it again since noone answered it.

Why is the FPM concentrating on building up alliances instead of having its own candidates in all the districts ?

[Hierombalos]

fellow canadian
Michel Chiha, the philosopher and constituionalist behind modern lebanon once said: 'in lebanon revolution is impossible, only gradual change can happen"

which leads us to say that in no way can FPM provide a clean break from the past and totally neutralize all the ancient families and mokata3jies

it has already done a wonderful job in destroying and uprooting many of the traditionalists including but not limited to the gamayels, and the ancient players of kesrouwan and jbeil.

in the coming elections there will be more FPM candidates, this will be a gradual process, if you can have a good ally that will accept your program wholeheartedly, like Sleiman Frangieh or the Tashnag among others, he will be a blessing to you, these allies will permit you to better play in the game of politics. they will enable you to whold several nuances of a single position, and to spread your capabilities further than a single party system.

trying to destroy all the ancient clans in a single swipe will backfire, the process will be gradual, there is a dose of pragmatism in politics, pure idealism is the road to litteral death.

[Shuyu3i]

Originally Posted by vegojimbo

why u don't think so? and as for Jezzine, now that it's a caza of its own, Amal has no leverage there.

Isn't GMS a consensual president? so now a consensual president will have lists against a party which had a major role in electing him? shi ktir 7elo.

Metn was an exception where the blood of a victim was being abused for political purposes. That won't happen in 2009 (although the propaganda, lies, and petrodollar will remain). Murr couldn't muster more than 2000 pure votes for FPM (+1500 from pro-FPM Murr supporters, but these would have voted for FPM regardless of MM's position), so he's not that much of a loss if dumped. Not to forget that 2007 was kataeb's and the loyalists' highest achievable score whilst it was FPM's lowest.

as for the LF, how will it reach the 10-15 MPs stage? and we're talking here LF alone, without kataeb and KC?

There are about 25% shia in this district and one MP will definetely go to Samir Azar. You will see just like 1 MP will go to HA in Jbeil.

FPM wanted GMA not GMS. Every president has a list in elections didn't La7oud?

If you think that Murr has only 2000 votes then you are kidding yourself? Do you think that there are more SSNP than Murr?

[DITOU]

Originally Posted by Shuyu3i

There are about 25% shia in this district and one MP will definetely go to Samir Azar. You will see just like 1 MP will go to HA in Jbeil.

FPM wanted GMA not GMS. Every president has a list in elections didn't La7oud?

If you think that Murr has only 2000 votes then you are kidding yourself? Do you think that there are more SSNP than Murr?

refresh my memory please seems i am not able to recall well , Lahoud had a liste in Metn or anywhere else? , can you please give me the names on that liste ?

Murr at his best has 8000 votes dont fool yourself by believing he has more , 5000 of those votes are pro Kataeb he has no controle over these votes we all know that . this is all what Murr is worth without the Tachnag and his moujanassin he has practicly nothing . he also can no longer controle his moujanassin as he use to , Tachnag might back him up going from there the equation will be his 2000/3000 left over votes + Tachnag 8000 = more or less 11000 votes . lets say kataeb will vote for him = 16000 votes. ok let us push it to the extreme with the frata of his municipalities followers = 18 000 votes . i am, out of my extreme generosity, giving him credits more then he diserve now ! in 2005 he won because he was on FPM liste periode feel free to check his results in 2005 . He knew that without the FPM he had no chance .

[DITOU]

Originally Posted by LFjounieh

I think you will get over 50

wow ! see ? finaly we can agree on something keep your fingers crossed .


on a more serious note , we have good chances but it will never happen without hard work . So FPMers you better move your asssses !

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by Shuyu3i

There are about 25% shia in this district and one MP will definetely go to Samir Azar. You will see just like 1 MP will go to HA in Jbeil.

HA will not get a seat in Jbeil. Count on that.
As for Samir Azar, he might get a seat, but not due to Amal being strong there bc as I already said FPM is the main electoral force in Jezzine. He could be a candidate due to his own popularity in the region and his deeds. As well, it could be a trade off with 1 or 2 MPs in Baalbeck. It's up to FPM to decide if it is to adopt Salim Azar on its list in Jezzine and not on Amal to impose him. Now his own character and deeds can impose his candidature, but that's a different issue.

FPM wanted GMA not GMS. Every president has a list in elections didn't La7oud?

GMS is a consensual president. He can not go into elections against other political factions bc he will lose his consensus. Get it now?

If you think that Murr has only 2000 votes then you are kidding yourself? Do you think that there are more SSNP than Murr?

Seriously, do u bother urself to read properly? I said he has 8000 votes, but only 2000 pure. And yes I am sure of what I am saying. 7aje ba2a nenfakho lal zalame. A dose of reality is due.