C&R Bloc will have how many MPs in 2009?

[X]

C&R Block will have how many MPs in 2009?

Vote and Explain why

[GMA forever]

It should be between 30 and 40 as C & R block of course.

Just by simply calculating the different electoral districts.

Now this doesn't mean that this is easy to achieve, we need to work our *** up to reach this number.

But I am positive about it, we can reach it with the right strategy and combination.

[Tayyar Keserwen]

By C&R block, i am assuming that it is the FPM-SF-Skaff-Tashnag coalition

I will enumerate where the block might win some seats:

Koura = 2: Makary 1, the remaining for opposition
Zghorta = 3: assuming SF doesnt leave a seat for Moawad
Zahle = 6: we will only lose 1 seat, (maybe due to the Kataeb martyrdom of Marouni and his bro being a minister now...)
Batroun = 1: Jebran bassil and Boutros Harb will win
Jbeil = 3: FPM citadelle
Keserwen = 4: it is 5 if GMA runs in that Caza,but am being a bit pessimistic, assuming Bon ra yekhrou2
Baabda = 5: FPM citadele
Aaley / Chouf = 1: barke mario aoun
Maten = 4: Assuming Murr independent, and worst-case scenario ( i doubt the tashnag candidate, Kanaan, Moukheiber, and Gnrl. Maalouf byekhsaro)
Jizzine = 2: Strong FPM presence
Achrafieh = 2: assuming a split with christian loyalists
Beirut 2 = 2 for tashnag
Others (b2a3 el gharbe, marja3youn, etc.) = 2

So give or take 2-3 mp's, the block IMHO, will get around 35 MP's (Block = FPM, SF, Tashnag, and Skaff).

Regards.

[Tayyar Keserwen]

On another note, assuming the C&R block gets around 35, and HA+Amal get 30, the opposition will have 65 MP's, which is 50%+1, just on the edge of majority....

[GMA forever]

Originally Posted by Tayyar Keserwen

On another note, assuming the C&R block gets around 35, and HA+Amal get 30, the opposition will have 65 MP's, which is 50%+1, just on the edge of majority....

Exactly, that is why we have to work more and try to win more seats. 35 is a good number, but 36 is better, and so on and on and on.....

[Tashnag]

I am not sure..

One thing am sure, fpm is no more popular as it was in 2005..
In my my neighborhood..too many pro-fpmers to independant or 14 azar...
Maten 07 was a warning, I dont think in last 2 years much has been done to improve the situation...
allies play a huge role, an ally like hezbollah helped decrease popularity of fpm..
criminal like kuntar being freed up..
A mou on how hezbollah hands their weapon...a fake paper that most christians dont buy it..
July 2006 war...hezbollah acting like they are the goverment...

Maten 07, it wasnt the "gemayel" name that got them sooo much votes..
In armenians for example 78 % votes for tashnag only...down from 95% in maten 05..
that was lowest ever for tashnag...no armenian gives or cares about gemayel..


Dont take 05 results as to be the same in 09...
Fpm popularity is down big time...Maybe still fpm represents majority christians...but not more then 60% of christians support fpm/allies like before

[Rye]

Originally Posted by Tayyar Keserwen

On another note, assuming the C&R block gets around 35, and HA+Amal get 30, the opposition will have 65 MP's, which is 50%+1, just on the edge of majority....

yep... that's why FM and WJ should release the 15 seats from their control!

[Tayyar Keserwen]

Originally Posted by Tashnag

but not more then 60% of christians support fpm/allies like before

2005 was an exception
2007 was an exception

all we need is 50.01%.

Regards.

[X]

I personally think we should/will have over 50 candidates all over Lebanon and we "should try to"/ "can" win at least 40 seats.

[Tayyar Keserwen]

Originally Posted by X

I personally think we should/will have over 50 candidates all over Lebanon and we "should try to"/ "can" win at least 40 seats.

Care to provide us with a breakdown or explanation?

Thx