Beirut 1 Elections 2009

[dodzi]

Originally Posted by Ignatius

In the last few days/weeks I've been reading (Al Akbar, maybe Al Safir also) that Pharaon who used to be close to Hariri was going to be a kind of independant candidate in Beirut 1. I even read that he was goind to be on FPM's list.
Anyone has any info about the guy : I guess he's the heir of a riche family, but what else ? He's been an MP (a minister maybe) close to Hariri Sr. But how much close is he from Jr ? Is he yet another puppet like Lahoud, Atallah or Mo3awad ? Does he have any specific ideas about the future of Lebanon ? Any specific popular base ?
Thanx

What's great about Beirut 1, is that since the Doha agreements, all those who used to be Hariri's slaves, and used to lick his *** and bash Aoun day and night, are today scared ****less because they know they're not standing a chance in 2009.

Pharaon was bashing Aoun day and night two months ago! You really think he doesn't have the slightest pride and is going to lick his boots today, just because he's afraid of his political future?

Same goes about all the others! Tueni has recently been more critical about Siniora, while he was still criticizing Aoun a couple of weeks ago! Always with the same pragmatic approach of pretending to be close to both sides...

Btw, why would FPM not run in Beirut 1? Why would it only "support" independents? As someone pointed in another thread, people living in Ashrafieh, mostly don't vote there, so there's no point of supporting feudal or other kind of clientelist leaders there. FPM should at least present 2 of its candidates, along with 3 allies!

PS: who's Yvette Sursock?
PS: Isn't Pharaon the principal investor of l'Orient le Jour? His influence amongst French speaking people is big, and could have an impact amongst a lot of people throughout Lebanon and French speaking Lebanese living abroad... But I don't think it is a credible alliance...

[johnnyFPM]

Originally Posted by Ignatius

In the last few days/weeks I've been reading (Al Akbar, maybe Al Safir also) that Pharaon who used to be close to Hariri was going to be a kind of independant candidate in Beirut 1. I even read that he was goind to be on FPM's list.
Anyone has any info about the guy : I guess he's the heir of a riche family, but what else ? He's been an MP (a minister maybe) close to Hariri Sr. But how much close is he from Jr ? Is he yet another puppet like Lahoud, Atallah or Mo3awad ? Does he have any specific ideas about the future of Lebanon ? Any specific popular base ?
Thanx

Pharaon is very close to Hariri, and very rich too. He is MP + Minister.
I don't think there is any "So7a" in the claims that he will join the FPM. I don't even think he'll be "Independant". This guy is 100% Hariri and will be 100% on his list.

In my personal opinion, I see people like Boutros Harb, Nayla Moawad or even Nassib Lahoud shifting sides before Pharaon. That's an impression I have... I also have the impression that he has less popularity than the people i stated (definitely less than Boutros Harb, maybe as few as Nayla and Nassib).

[SeekNirvana]

Originally Posted by Ignatius

In the last few days/weeks I've been reading (Al Akbar, maybe Al Safir also) that Pharaon who used to be close to Hariri was going to be a kind of independant candidate in Beirut 1. I even read that he was goind to be on FPM's list.
Anyone has any info about the guy : I guess he's the heir of a riche family, but what else ? He's been an MP (a minister maybe) close to Hariri Sr. But how much close is he from Jr ? Is he yet another puppet like Lahoud, Atallah or Mo3awad ? Does he have any specific ideas about the future of Lebanon ? Any specific popular base ?
Thanx

I think it's unlikely he would switch, knowing his past stances.

The only thing I know for sure is that the guy can run as an independent, meaning that he can put on a fight without Hariri and without the opposition. His base is solid enough to allow him that. This talk is based on figures from 1996, 2000 and 2005 (stats only in '05).

It could be that the country's division is so great that those who don't belong to one of the poles have no place anymore. Who knows.

[johnnyFPM]

Originally Posted by SeekNirvana

I think it's unlikely he would switch, knowing his past stances.

The only thing I know for sure is that the guy can run as an independent, meaning that he can put on a fight without Hariri and without the opposition. His base is solid enough to allow him that. This talk is based on figures from 1996, 2000 and 2005 (stats only in '05).

It could be that the country's division is so great that those who don't belong to one of the poles have no place anymore. Who knows.

Im not really sure he has a "base" outside his allies' voters. If he runs as an independant, he may get some votes from people voting Hariri (with toshtib), but it's unlikely he has followers who will only vote for him, or do what he asks them to.

Can you post your figures of 96, 2000 and 2005 to see if i'm right or wrong?

[SeekNirvana]

Originally Posted by johnnyFPM

Im not really sure he has a "base" outside his allies' voters. If he runs as an independant, he may get some votes from people voting Hariri (with toshtib), but it's unlikely he has followers who will only vote for him, or do what he asks them to.

Can you post your figures of 96, 2000 and 2005 to see if i'm right or wrong?

In 1996, he ran with Hariri, he managed to get about 55K votes. His closest competitor was a guy by the family name of Mghayzel, he was inheriting his dad's seat (who died earlier). Mghayzel ended up somewhere around 25K. I don't think this is significant enough for two reasons: 1) Beirut did not have the same division as in 2000 (or 2009). 2) The guy gained popularity between 96 and 2000.

In 2000, he ran also with Hariri. I was close to some people running his campaign. The end result was that he gathered about 36K in Beirut 1, whereas Hariri gathered 34K. In the afternoon of elections day, Hariri's campaign started feeling that Pharaon was doing well. Hariri voters were given instructions to keep Pharaon out of their vote by taking his name off the list, so that he doesn't surpass Hariri's numbers. It didn't work out all that well, and he still managed to get more than Hariri.

In my opinion, there isn't any Catholic in that region that is as strong as he is, and I think it's unlikely that the opposition can find anyone to contest Pharaon, and from his side, Hariri keeps him happy (probably not with money as he is doing quite well himself) because he needs the votes that Pharaon can bring by himself.

And for 2005, I don't think anyone ran against him, my numbers are more from statistics from his campaign, the same sources as above.

rgds,

[Ignatius]

Doing better than Hariri while on Hariri's list is a success in itslef
Moreover if he has been MP for the last 12 years without "buying" ppl with "servcies" means that he's not very intelligent.
Of course all this doesn't impose him as a probable ally of FPM but it means that FPM should be very intelligent in chosing his counter part
Any idea of greek catholics close to FPM ideas less popular than Pharaon but popular enough to leverage FPMs popularity with some extra votes ?

[Zero Cult]

Originally Posted by SeekNirvana

I think it's unlikely he would switch, knowing his past stances.

The only thing I know for sure is that the guy can run as an independent, meaning that he can put on a fight without Hariri and without the opposition. His base is solid enough to allow him that. This talk is based on figures from 1996, 2000 and 2005 (stats only in '05).

It could be that the country's division is so great that those who don't belong to one of the poles have no place anymore. Who knows.

Sadi2,

You simply can't compare the "jerrafé" system of previous elections to the upcoming one. It is Pharaon that benifited from Hariri votes and not the other way around, the fact that he got 2000 more votes than Hariri did isn't an indicator of anything nore is it an element that proves he has solid backing, it materialy represents Christian toshtib of Hariri's name. While he definitly has some popularity I believe describing him as an THE Catholic candidate is blowing things way out of proportion. There is no doubt whatsoever that Joseph Mghayzel was a much more appreciated figure than Pharaon is or ever was.

By the way, how was Beirut sliced-up in the 96 elections? Can't seem to remember...

[SeekNirvana]

Originally Posted by Zero Cult

Sadi2,

You simply can't compare the "jerrafé" system of previous elections to the upcoming one. It is Pharaon that benifited from Hariri votes and not the other way around, the fact that he got 2000 more votes than Hariri did isn't an indicator of anything nore is it an element that proves he has solid backing, it materialy represents Christian toshtib of Hariri's name. While he definitly has some popularity I believe describing him as an THE Catholic candidate is blowing things way out of proportion. There is no doubt whatsoever that Joseph Mghayzel was a much more appreciated figure than Pharaon is or ever was.

By the way, how was Beirut sliced-up in the 96 elections? Can't seem to remember...

Well, certainly past trends don't guarantee future performance. In 2000, Mazraa was part of District 1 in addition to Saifi and Achrafieh. In 2009, it's supposed to be taken out of District 1 and added to District 3. Rmeil (previously in District 2) will be part of District 1 along with Achrafieh and Saifi.

Looking at Pharaon's number in 96 and 2000 and the fact that nobody bothered to run against him in 2005, that the guy is well established there. By the way, I'm hardly trying to give him anything remotely close to credit for being a good politician :-) Looking at the scene of Catholics around the opposition (regardless of region), there's nobody in a strong national standing.
But as you know, el Teis lost to Camille Khoury, so the level of division in the country could be so deep that it doesn't matter who you are. And if the elections are run [again] on a sectarian basis, in District 1, the guy might very well end up losing. I'm in no way putting any money on him now.

In 96, I think Beirut was one district. We were all living in unity and happiness ... ever after.

[johnnyFPM]

Originally Posted by SeekNirvana

Well, certainly past trends don't guarantee future performance. In 2000, Mazraa was part of District 1 in addition to Saifi and Achrafieh. In 2009, it's supposed to be taken out of District 1 and added to District 3. Rmeil (previously in District 2) will be part of District 1 along with Achrafieh and Saifi.

Looking at Pharaon's number in 96 and 2000 and the fact that nobody bothered to run against him in 2005, that the guy is well established there. By the way, I'm hardly trying to give him anything remotely close to credit for being a good politician :-) Looking at the scene of Catholics around the opposition (regardless of region), there's nobody in a strong national standing.
But as you know, el Teis lost to Camille Khoury, so the level of division in the country could be so deep that it doesn't matter who you are. And if the elections are run [again] on a sectarian basis, in District 1, the guy might very well end up losing. I'm in no way putting any money on him now.

In 96, I think Beirut was one district. We were all living in unity and happiness ... ever after.

Elias Skaff is Catholic, and "national" leader to a certain limit.
As for catholics in Beirut, maybe Michel Samaha? altho he's from Maten, he can run in Beirut.

In 2005 elections, nobody ran against Pharaon because FPM boycotted Beirut elections (FPM was the only parti that was able to run in Beirut 1, as it was the only Opposition parti in Beirut 1).

I think Zero Cult has a point in Christian "toshtib" of Hariri, but then again: was the christian turnout this high when Pharaon got more votes then Hariri?

[Ignatius]

General Maalouf is greek catholic but he's already an MP for another district.