Beirut 1 Elections 2009

[Learned]

Beirut 1 will be an all out war between Christians. Beirut 2 has good prospects for the opposition, I'll go out on a limb and say that Tashnag will take both Armenian seats, and the oppostion will pick up both the Shia and Sunni seats. Beirut 3 ma7sumi la tayyar al mustaqbal (5 sunni seats) and its allies, including its Shia, Greek Othrodox and Evangelical seats.

[Observer]

Originally Posted by Learned

Beirut 1 will be an all out war between Christians. Beirut 2 has good prospects for the opposition, I'll go out on a limb and say that Tashnag will take both Armenian seats, and the oppostion will pick up both the Shia and Sunni seats. Beirut 3 ma7sumi la tayyar al mustaqbal (5 sunni seats) and its allies, including its Shia, Greek Othrodox and Evangelical seats.

if the election takes place today then you are 100% correct, in my humble opinion.

[kappa273]

it is very difficult to predict what will happen in Beirut 1...

Beirut I has not voted since 1972 and surveys performed nowadays are very difficult since the overwhelming majority of people who live in Ashrafieh don't vote there....

all i know is that Beirut I needs a lot of work, a lot of money, a clear campaign, clear alliances.......

kappa

[Shuyu3i]

Originally Posted by kappa273

it is very difficult to predict what will happen in Beirut 1...

Beirut I has not voted since 1972 and surveys performed nowadays are very difficult since the overwhelming majority of people who live in Ashrafieh don't vote there....

all i know is that Beirut I needs a lot of work, a lot of money, a clear campaign, clear alliances.......

kappa

it is going to be very hard in beirut I. It is unpredictable as most of the christians areas are.

[dodzi]

Originally Posted by Learned

Beirut 1 will be an all out war between Christians. Beirut 2 has good prospects for the opposition, I'll go out on a limb and say that Tashnag will take both Armenian seats, and the oppostion will pick up both the Shia and Sunni seats. Beirut 3 ma7sumi la tayyar al mustaqbal (5 sunni seats) and its allies, including its Shia, Greek Othrodox and Evangelical seats.

It's a minority seat...

[Ignatius]

Originally Posted by TayyarBeino

just to correct your info, his sister is Youmna. Maya was killed in an a car explosion in Ashrafieh, she was I think 2 years old

Gemayel's first daughter Maya was murdered by a car bomb intended for Gemayel himself in 1980, when Maya was 18 months old:
Bachir Gemayel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Thanks for the correction : in fact it must be unconsciousness since everyone's talking about Jihane Frangiyeh and Maya Gemayel because of the Ehden massacre program on OTV :-(

[ibn libnen]

dont fool urself with number of registrants in beirut..

last election 28 % were capable to decide who is beirut going to(hariri that is)...
watever way u put law..no way 62% loses to 28%...
but here is why...most armenian registrants dont vote.....they have left this country..

[CPL]

Originally Posted by Ignatius

Nadim Bashir Gemayel, Bashirs Gemayel's son
he also has a sister called Maya who should be the head of the Ashrafyef Kataeb Eklim
he has a mother who's been elected on Hariri lists then she joined the Kataeb block and now she says she's independant
I heard in 2005 GMA said that a seat should be left to Bashir's family.
Reminder : GMA = Ra3ed and Ra3ed used to be within the Bashir council in the begining of the 80s but very few thiongs are said about that period so I'm not sure what's true and what's fake and what's half true :-)

I know whose son he is. I meant, enno who the HELL is Nadim Gemayel. ;)

[LFjounieh]

So will FPM run in Achrafieh or will just back Liberty Front? or will there be a threeway battle?

[Amirkani]

Originally Posted by LFjounieh

So will FPM run in Achrafieh or will just back Liberty Front? or will there be a threeway battle?

FPM is going to run Yvette Sursoq in Achrafieh.

----------------